By Meteorologist John Bagioni, Fax-Alert Weather Service, LLC
We are now at the time of the year that volatility and variability dominate the weather pattern and plays havoc with the modeling; even short-term periods. Usually, the greatest week to week variability occurs during the March through April period.
It has to also be noted that temperature prediction error potential with respect to 5-to-10-day periods is now at its greatest. It is very common to see massive north to south temperature gradient across the midsection of the country, as summer-like air masses start to develop across the Deep South and Southern Plains, while bitter cold air masses are still being generated across Canada.
Small shifts in the mean upper-level flow pattern can cause huge changes to the expected temperature profiles across the country. Needless to say, forecasters that spout a high confidence in their March and April temperature predictions can be humbled very quickly.
Through early March, the Northeast sector of the country has been the favored zone for colder than normal conditions, while much warmer conditions have been developing across the central U.S. and nudging into the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions.
Looking ahead, right now, there is not a strong signal for an excessively hot summer season across the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Once into early April, we will take a more detailed look at the summer outlook, but at this time, I favor a warmer than normal summer - but not an excessively warmer summer. Click here for the full weather report.
Meteorologist John Bagioni | FAX-ALERT WEATHER SERVICE, LLC