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Registered Investment Advisor
900 Walt Whitman Road, Suite 208
Melville, NY 11747
(631) 923-2485
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Investment Newsletter - Q1 2021 |
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Greetings!
There is no simple way to sum up 2020. Besides the obvious words such as COVID, and Coronavirus, others come to mind such as unprecedented, tumultuous, wearisome, and terrifying. Of late and on the brighter side, words such as resilient, heroic, hopeful, and optimistic.
Regarding the economy and the stock market, many of those words also apply. When we look back on 2020, it is a microcosm of how the market often does the exact opposite of what conventional thinking would predict. We give you our thoughts, specifically on the past quarter and outlook further below. If you would like, we also have a link to the 2021 Global Market Outlook by Russell Investments, click here* , as well as a report from Vanguard, on their economic and market outlook for 2021: click here* .
*Please note, when you click, then scroll and click the link underneath the applicable picture (Russell Investments and/or Vanguard) to download the pdf of the article.
In this issue of our Investment Newsletter:
- Recent articles that Landmark Wealth Management was quoted in the press
- An overview of recent market activity, along with "Our Perspective"
- A recap of the performance of major market indices from the past quarter
- Upcoming Economic Calendar
You will find past investment articles, directly on our website, found under the Articles tab.
If there is a topic of interest you would like to see covered in the future, please reply back to this email to let us know, or click here. Likewise, if you have any questions on this or anything else, feel free to reply back.
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Recent articles where Landmark Wealth Management has been quoted in the press
The past few years, Landmark Wealth Management has been quoted in the press for various articles. We have decided to start sharing these when they happen. If curious about past times we were mentioned, you can see it on our website under Articles > In The Press, or simply click here.
"Review where pandemic has left your finances before starting new year"
From an article that was originally printed in Newsday this October, we thought you may find this of interest: "Review where pandemic has left your finances before starting new year". To access this article, please click here.
"What to do with your 401(k) when you lose your job"
Also in Newsday this October was this article: "What to do with your 401(k) when you lose your job". To access this article, please click here.
"Why 2020 was the perfect year for tax-loss harvesting"
From the Wall Street Journal this November, "Why 2020 was the perfect year for tax-loss harvesting". To access this article, please ***click here.
"What can you do with $5,000 cash you've saved during the pandemic?"
In Newsday this November was this article: "What can you do with $5,000 cash you've saved during the pandemic?" To access this article, please click here.
"Is an uptick in inflation on the horizon?"
In Newsday this December was this article: "Is an uptick in inflation on the horizon?" To access this article, please click here.
"After pandemic-scrambled 2020 it's time to get finances in order for 2021"
In Newsday this December was this article: "After pandemic-scrambled 2020 it's time to get finances in order for 2021" To access this article, please click here.
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Our Perspective on Recent Market News and Activity |
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Our synopsis of the past quarter, a look ahead, and putting it all in perspective: |
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We cannot recall a year in our lifetimes that we wanted to come to an end as much as 2020. As we head into the 1st quarter of this year, we know that we are not alone when we say good riddance and welcome 2021! Congratulate yourselves for hanging in there during a year that saw unprecedented market volatility first to the downside in February and March, and then to the upside for the remainder of the year. In retrospect, 2020 from an investment standpoint was a good year for the overall markets and delivered returns that kept long-term investment plans in good shape as long as investors were able to withstand the wild roller coaster of a year. The best thing that we can take from a year like 2020, was the same thing that many investors learned during the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009. That lesson is no matter how bleak things may look, and how it may even appear unprecedented, if you give the markets some time, things always work out and come back better than ever. Investing should always be about time, and if one doesn’t have at least a 5-10 year window, they may be better suited for CD’s and treasuries. Of course the challenge to that is good luck offsetting taxes and inflation to grow your assets to enough to meet your long term needs. Investing is a necessary evil.
There are still some clouds ahead, especially during Q1 that time will hopefully resolve. The big issue of course is the ever increasing race to getting the vaccines rolled out before more and more people wind up getting the Coronavirus. The markets may have overlooked how difficult the logistics of getting a two-dose vaccine to 330 million Americans in a timely manner really is. The other item on the markets mind is the upcoming Georgia Senate election, and how the market may react if the Democrats take control of the Senate, to go along with the House and Presidency. As we said in our last newsletter, “The big thing that the market does not like is “uncertainty”. Over time, the markets and the economy are very resilient. As clarity comes to these two big issues, it will allow for companies to thoughtfully plan based upon what the future rules and laws will be. From a historical perspective, investors benefit by ignoring all the political noise”. We favor looking through any near-term market volatility.
From an investment standpoint, we remain firm believers that there will be a cyclical rotation from growth to value, as historical numbers bear the proof that the historical discrepancy between Value vs. Growth witnessed in 2020 was most likely fueled by a COVID type of black swan event that fortunately does not happen too often. Over time, strong balance sheets, company fundamentals, price to earnings ratios, all matter and efficient markets correct where needed. We are willing to remain patient and allow for these rotations to occur. One area that many are feeling a rotation will occur is in the International Markets. The U.S. as much as we love it, historically does not generate the best returns each year over long periods of time. We are coming off a decade that saw the U.S. markets trounce the International Markets, and that now leads to a possibly overpriced U.S. and an undervalued International space. Central banks appear fully committed to limiting any rises in nominal yields, even as inflation picks up.
As we look to 2021 as the year we start to get back to normal, we strongly encourage our clients to get back to the basics. If your emergency fund is falling below where it should, let’s work on getting it back up to where it needs to be. 2020 was a great lesson for many who were caught without enough cash for an emergency to unfortunately find themselves in a difficult situation. Are you committed to putting away money into your investments especially when the market may be a little choppy? The stock market is historically the only thing in the world that people do not want to buy when it is on sale. It should be the exact opposite. Portfolio rebalancing actually does just that. It takes profit from those assets that went up and buys those assets that either went down, or just not up as much as the others. Buy low, sell high!
We are here and available for any appointment requests, and those appointments can be in person, via a phone conference, or Zoom-type of meeting. To all of our clients, if we have not updated your financial plan in the past year, please reach out to set an appointment so that we can make sure that you are still on track. For everyone, we wish you safety, health and prosperity as we enter what hopefully will be the beginning of a new economic recovery!
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Below is the Q4 '20 price return performance of some of the major indices: |
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On the Investment Horizon |
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Upcoming Key Dates on the Economic Calendar
- First Friday of each month: Unemployment report for the prior month, released at 8:30AM.
- Monday, January 18 - Martin Luther King Jr. Day: US Markets closed.
- Tuesday, January 26 - Wednesday, January 27: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
- Thursday, January 28 at 8:30AM - GDP, 4th quarter and year 2020 (advance estimate).
- Monday, February 15 - Presidents Day: US Markets closed.
- Thursday, February 25 at 8:30AM - GDP, 4th quarter and year 2020 (second estimate).
- Tuesday, March 16 - Wednesday, March 17: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
- Thursday, March 25 at 8:30AM - GDP, 4th quarter and year 2020 (third estimate).
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If you desire an appointment, have any questions on any of this material, or any other financial subjects may relate to your own financial circumstance, please reach out to us at the contact information below:
Sincerely,
Direct phone: 631-923-2485
This communication is from Landmark Wealth Management, LLC, a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisory firm. The information in this email is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax, legal, or investment advice from an independent professional / financial advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Information and use of materials contained in this email, including text and attachments, is confidential and is for the use of the intended recipient(s) only. If received in error, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this communication, or any of its contents, is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please reply to the sender and delete the original message and any copy of it from your systems. Be also advised that email communications are not secure. All e-mail sent to or from this address will be recorded by the Landmark Wealth Management, LLC email system and is subject to archival, monitoring, and inspection pursuant to securities regulations. Please direct any matters regarding this policy to [email protected]
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Landmark Wealth Management, LLC
900 Walt Whitman Road, Suite 208
Melville, NY 11747
(631) 923-2485
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