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Registered Investment Advisor
95 Broadhollow Road, Suite 102
Melville, NY 11747
(631) 923-2485
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Investment Newsletter - Q1 2024 |
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Greetings!
The calendar has now turned to 2024, and a year ago, we were thrilled to say goodbye to 2022 as it was a historically bad year for the combined stock and bond market. For 2023, we were figuratively holding our breath, as there was rampant pessimism, which included major concerns due to inflation and concern for a rough landing in regards to an upcoming recession.
As we now look in the rear view mirror of 2023, as you may note from the article we refer to below from the NY Times, this happened to be another year that defied most experts expectations, as it was for the most parts a positive year in investing. This was led by the "Magnificent 7" of the S&P, which was fueled primarily thanks to the emergence of AI on the scene.
We give you a deeper insight into our thoughts on the past quarter and 2023 and an outlook for 2024 further below. If you would like, we also have a link to Vanguard's economic and market outlook for 2024 (click here), 2024 Capital Market Assumptions by Franklin Templeton Investments (click here), and the 2024 Global Market Outlook by Russell Investments (click here).
Keep in mind, besides these predictions and outlooks, there are plenty of others, and the reality is that no one knows. This article in the NY Times (click here) is worth a look at as it makes this point, while emphasizing the "right way" to think about predictions and investing.
In this issue of our Investment Newsletter:
- Our investment topic this issue is: "Cost Basis vs. Performance: How to Understand your Monthly Statement".
- Recent articles where Landmark Wealth Management was quoted in the press.
- An overview of recent market activity, along with Our Perspective...
- A recap of the performance of major market indices from the past quarter
- Upcoming Economic Calendar
You will find past investment articles, by clicking the Articles tab above, or directly on our website, found under Periodicals.
If there is a topic of interest you would like to see covered in the future, please reply back to this email to let us know, or click here. Likewise, if you have any questions on this or anything else, feel free to reply back.
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Investment Topic
"Cost Basis vs Performance: How to Understand your Monthly Statement"
For our investment topic, "Cost Basis vs. Performance: How to Understand your Monthly Statement" we give our thoughts and suggestions. To learn more, please click here.
Please note - this investment topic, as well as past investment topics, can be found on our website under the Articles tab, or you can click here.
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Recent articles where Landmark Wealth Management was quoted in the press
The past few years, Landmark Wealth Management has been quoted in the press for various articles. We have decided to start sharing these when they happen. If curious about past times we were mentioned, you can see it on our website under Articles > In The Press, or simply click here.
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From an article that was on the website MarketWatch, we thought you may find this story of interest: "I only get a yearly call from my adviser, and recently, after I requested $35K to purchase a Jaguar, he ‘just wasn’t as cordial anymore.’ What should I do?". To access this article, please click here.
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From an article on the website US News & World Report, "5 Reasons You Should Never Retire". To access this article, please click here.
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From an article that was on the website MarketWatch: "My financial adviser charges advisory, manager and platform fees — and the total fee is 1.15%. Is this even normal?". To access this article, please click here.
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Our Perspective on Recent Market News and Activity |
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Our synopsis of the past quarter, a look ahead, and putting it all in perspective: |
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What a difference a quarter makes. Going into Q4, the talk of the market was all about the Magnificent 7. When will the market broaden out? Is Inflation tamed? Will Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve cut rates? Are we going into a recession, or will it be a soft landing? Although these questions may not have been answered outright, we certainly have more clarity on them. Historically, Q4 has had positive returns almost 80% of the time. Playing the percentages, this year has been no different, the holiday rally that has propelled the market, as measured by the S & P 500, to near record territory. The S&P 500 closed the year at $4769.83 just off of the historical record of $4796.56. The S&P 500 was also up 24% for the year, and up over 11% for the quarter.
It certainly has been welcomed by investors, especially having to deal with 2022 and such a long stretch of negative to flat returns in 2022. The market has also broadened with Mid-Caps, Small Caps and International markets turning in positive returns for the year. After two years of negative returns, going into the 4th quarter, it was looking like another negative year for fixed income, but the end of year rally had improved bond prices, with the 10-year Treasury yield going from 4.57% to 3.84%, avoiding a 3rd negative year in a row in the fixed income market, which has never happened in the history of the bond market.
Although bonds, Mid-Caps, Small Caps and international markets were not up the 24% that the S&P 500 was this year, they are an important and necessary part of a balanced portfolio. With the last few prints on inflation having a 3 handle, Jerome Powell has been able to pause raising interest rates, although the Federal Reserve is still talking tough on inflation, but the market seems to think that they will cut rates 6 to 7 times next year. The pause though has been the fuel to this holiday season rally.
Where do we go from here? Even though investors are dealing with higher borrowing costs, higher prices and student loan payments picking up, there still seems to be cash on the sidelines still looking to get to work. According to St. Louis Fed data, money market balances were close to $7 trillion as of third quarter, so there is still ample liquidity on the sidelines. We are going into an election year, and the party in power wants to keep the economy humming along. Although the third year of the presidential cycle is historically the strongest year, the fourth year has been the second-best year. There are headwinds though, with inflation still above the Federal Reserve targets, ongoing wars overseas, an election year, and softening of some of the economic numbers. Going into 2024, fixed income still looks more attractive than equities. Yields are still compelling, and if the Fed has to cut rates, prices could further improve. Even if the Federal Reserve holds steady, you’re still clipping a higher yield now than you were at the beginning of the year. If inflation increases and stays persistently high, this could cause bonds to decline but most prognosticators seem to think bonds should have a positive year.
No matter what happens to the economy, the political environment, or the market, we always encourage diversification. Revisit your financial plans at least once per year, and tailor your savings and investments to your risk tolerance and time horizon. That is the best way to take the emotion out of investing and creates a well thought out path to reaching your goals. All the best in 2024 and we look forward to seeing you this year!
Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.
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Below is the Q4 '23 price return performance of some of the major indices: |
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On the Investment Horizon |
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Upcoming Key Dates on the Economic Calendar
- First Friday of each month: Unemployment report for the prior month, released at 8:30AM.
- Monday, January 15 - Martin Luther King Jr. Day: US Markets closed.
- Thursday, January 25 at 8:30AM - GDP, 4th quarter (advance estimate).
- Tuesday, January 30 - Wednesday, January 31: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
- Wednesday, January 31 - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases minutes of previous meeting at 2PM.
- Monday, February 19 - Presidents Day: US Markets closed.
- Wednesday, February 28 at 8:30AM - GDP, 4th quarter (second estimate).
- Tuesday, March 19 - Wednesday, March 20: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
- Thursday, March 28 at 8:30AM - GDP, 3rd quarter (third estimate).
- Friday, March 29 - Good Friday: US Markets closed.
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For our clients - You should have received your statement directly from our account custodian, Charles Schwab& Co. If you have not, please let us know so that we may investigate the matter. Please review your statement carefully and let us know if you have any questions or comments.
Also, as a reminder, our office (not so new any longer as we have been here over two years), has a nice sized conference room to use for our meetings and updates. If you do not feel comfortable coming into our office or if it is inconvenient, we recommend that we set up a Zoom or teleconference call to update your planning numbers, especially if it has been more than a year since we have last done so. Please feel free to reach out.
For everyone - If you desire an appointment, have any questions on any of this material, or any other financial subjects may relate to your own financial circumstance, please reach out to us at the contact information below:
Sincerely,
Direct phone: 631-923-2485
This communication is from Landmark Wealth Management, LLC, a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisory firm. The information in this email is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax, legal, or investment advice from an independent professional / financial advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Information and use of materials contained in this email, including text and attachments, is confidential and is for the use of the intended recipient(s) only. If received in error, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this communication, or any of its contents, is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please reply to the sender and delete the original message and any copy of it from your systems. Be also advised that email communications are not secure. All e-mail sent to or from this address will be recorded by the Landmark Wealth Management, LLC email system and is subject to archival, monitoring, and inspection pursuant to securities regulations. Please direct any matters regarding this policy to [email protected].
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Landmark Wealth Management, LLC
95 Broadhollow Road, Suite 102
Melville, NY 11747
(631) 923-2485
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