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Registered Investment Advisor
95 Broadhollow Road, Suite 102
Melville, NY 11747
(631) 923-2485
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Investment Newsletter - Q2 2023 |
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Greetings!
As the first quarter of 2023 is behind us, it is another example at just how unpredictable things can be. Going back three months ago, while there were predictions of an impending recession, there was not a concern of any bank failures. Now here we are and a recession still has not happened (not saying it won't, but so far it hasn't), and of course we had the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapses just a few weeks back.
Now, had that been foretold by people with a crystal ball, the predictions would have been then with the bank issues and need for a sudden change by the Fed, that it could spell trouble for the stock market. However, in the spirit of the impossibility of market timing, the stock market had a much better quarter than was mostly predicted.
We give you a deeper insight into our thoughts on the past quarter and outlook further below. If you would like, we also have a link to the Q2 2023 Global Market Outlook by Russell Investments. Click here to access the in-depth commentary. .
In this issue of our Investment Newsletter:
- Our current investment topic is: Banks and Brokerage Firms: How Safe Am I?
- Recent articles where Landmark Wealth Management was quoted in the press.
- Access to our updated ADV brochure for year-end 2022
- An overview of recent market activity, along with Our Perspective...
- A recap of the performance of major market indices from the past quarter
- Upcoming Economic Calendar
You will find past investment articles, by clicking the Articles tab above, or directly on our website, found under Periodicals.
If there is a topic of interest you would like to see covered in the future, please reply back to this email to let us know, or click here. Likewise, if you have any questions on this or anything else, feel free to reply back.
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Investment Topic
Banks and Brokerage Firms: How Safe Am I?
For our investment topic, "Banks and Brokerage Firms: How Safe Am I?" we give some of our thoughts and suggestions. To learn more, please click here.
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Recent articles where Landmark Wealth Management was quoted in the press
The past few years, Landmark Wealth Management has been quoted in the press for various articles. We have decided to start sharing these when they happen. If curious about past times we were mentioned, you can see it on our website under Articles > In The Press, or simply click here.
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From an article that was on the website MarketWatch, we thought you may find this story of interest: "I’m 70, retired and my husband and I have Social Security, two 401(k)s and an annuity so we ‘live comfortably.’ So do I even need my financial adviser anymore?". To access this article, please click here.
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From an article on the website US News & World Report, "How Roth IRA Taxes Work". To access this article, please click here.
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From an article on the website GoBankingRates, "Want a Higher Savings Rate? Ask Your Bank for a Raise". To access this article, please click here.
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Our Annual ADV
As per Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requirements, attached is our annual ADV brochure. To access this, please click here. If you would like us to email or mail a hard copy, please feel free to call/email us to let us know.
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Our Perspective on Recent Market News and Activity |
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Our synopsis of the past quarter, a look ahead, and putting it all in perspective: |
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Anybody who ever thought that investing could be “boring” was sadly mistaken. After a very tumultuous 2022, we came into 2023 with some glimmers of hope that the Fed was getting close to ending the most ambitious rate hike schedule that the markets have seen in a very long time. This hope was evident in the markets starting to rebound in Q4 2022 and hopes became real that perhaps the Fed could successfully pull off a “soft-landing” despite all of the rate hikes. Then came some of the economic and inflation reports which showed that the job market was still very strong, and inflation reports that while showing some slight declines, still was proving more stubborn than the Fed would like to see. Then some of the strains of a higher rate environment started to appear with the very sudden bank failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and there were some that feared this could lead to another financial crisis. So how did the market react to this? With a fairly decent rally that resulted in the second consecutive positive quarter for the markets. To many, simply put this can all seem “clear as mud”.
This is why we always say that predicting the direction of the markets in the short term is often a lesson in futility. You can find many opinions of so called “experts” who feel that the market is overpriced, a recession and hard landing is coming, and that we will either re-test or exceed the previous market lows of last October. Conversely, you can find many opinions that say, the economy is still strong, inflation is coming down, the jobs market is strong, we are at or near the end of the rate hike cycle, interest rates may start to come down as soon as the second half of this year, and the market is poised for the next bull market. Here is what we do know. The stock market is positive generally about 75% of all years. The bond market is positive generally about 90% of all years. Those are very good odds, and if an investor has time, patience, and a strong stomach, one simply needs to ride through the difficult times to see the better times that inevitably do follow. After all, volatility is the emotional price that investors have to pay to grow wealth over time. We do feel that more volatility is still ahead and this Bear market may continue for a little bit longer. Even so it will not last forever, and the next Bull market will most likely begin during a period of time when the economic and market data may look worse than we are today. Trying to time that is impossible and the risk of being on the sidelines is worse than just going along for the ride until better days do appear. As you can see from the slide below, if you give the market some time, the odds of losing money even over a 5-year rolling period become very small. It is not “timing” the market, but rather “time in the market” that leads to investing success.
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Q1 was a very strong quarter for the NASDAQ, which turned in its best performance since Q2 2020 being up 17%. The S&P 500 rose 7% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average only rose 0.4%. That is a reversal from last year which saw Value stocks easily outperform Growth stocks. In a diversified portfolio, you will own both Growth and Value specifically for this reason. Overall, the markets were impressively resilient in Q1 with 7 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors positive. The leading benchmark for bonds, the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index realize a positive return, despite their rocky start to the year.
The second quarter begins with multiple sources of uncertainty. Those include the continued path of inflation, the number of remaining Fed hikes, whether the regional banking crisis is behind us, future economic growth, continued geopolitical concerns and a debt ceiling debate which will continue to heat up. While headwinds remain in place for continued volatility, there remains a path for future positive returns. Remember, a well-designed, well-planned, long-term-focused financial plan can withstand virtually any market surprise and accompanying bout of market volatility. That is why it is important to stick to the plan, remember investing is a marathon and not a sprint. We are here for our clients, and welcome all questions, requests for meetings, and will help you put this now 15-month Bear market into proper historical perspective. Enjoy the springtime and spend time outdoors, the fresh air is always welcome and healthy to enjoy life.
Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.
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Below is the Q1 '23 price return performance of some of the major indices: |
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On the Investment Horizon |
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Upcoming Key Dates on the Economic Calendar
- First Friday of each month: Unemployment report for the prior month, released at 8:30AM.
- Friday, April 7 - Good Friday: US Markets closed.
- Wednesday, April 12 - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases minutes of previous meeting at 2PM.
- Thursday, April 27 at 8:30AM - GDP, 1st quarter (advance estimate).
- Tuesday, May 2 - Wednesday, May 3: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
- Wednesday, May 24 - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases minutes of previous meeting at 2PM.
- Thursday, May 25 at 8:30AM - GDP, 1st quarter (second estimate).
- Monday, May 29 - Memorial Day: US Markets closed.
- Tuesday, June 13 - Wednesday, June 14: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
- Wednesday, June 29 at 8:30AM - GDP, 1st quarter (third estimate).
- Tuesday, July 4 - Independence Day: US Markets closed.
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For our clients - You should have received your statement directly from your account custodian (TD Ameritrade and/or Charles Schwab). If you have not, please let us know so that we may investigate the matter. Please review your statement carefully and let us know if you have any questions or comments.
Also, as a reminder, we have moved to a new office, with a nice sized conference room to use for our meetings and updates. If you do not feel comfortable coming into our office, we recommend that we possibly set up a Zoom or teleconference call to update your planning numbers, especially if it has been more than a year since we have last done so. Please feel free to reach out.
For everyone - If you desire an appointment, have any questions on any of this material, or any other financial subjects may relate to your own financial circumstance, please reach out to us at the contact information below:
Sincerely,
Direct phone: 631-923-2485
This communication is from Landmark Wealth Management, LLC, a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisory firm. The information in this email is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax, legal, or investment advice from an independent professional / financial advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Information and use of materials contained in this email, including text and attachments, is confidential and is for the use of the intended recipient(s) only. If received in error, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this communication, or any of its contents, is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please reply to the sender and delete the original message and any copy of it from your systems. Be also advised that email communications are not secure. All e-mail sent to or from this address will be recorded by the Landmark Wealth Management, LLC email system and is subject to archival, monitoring, and inspection pursuant to securities regulations. Please direct any matters regarding this policy to info@landmarkwealthmgmt.com.
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Landmark Wealth Management, LLC
95 Broadhollow Road, Suite 102
Melville, NY 11747
(631) 923-2485
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