Registered Investment Advisor
900 Walt Whitman Road, Suite 208
Melville, NY 11747
 (631) 923-2485
Investment Newsletter - Q3 2020
Greetings!

First and foremost, we hope this finds you well. When we sent out the newsletter for the prior quarter, we were fresh off of historically poor results for the economy and the stock market (most major indexes lost about 35% of their value in less than six weeks), as the effects of the shutdown due to COVID-19 were getting into full swing.

As we stated, and know full well, that as quickly, and unexpectedly as the market can go down, it also often does the same in coming back up. As a matter of fact, this past quarter the S&P 500 had the best quarterly return in over 20 years, and the Dow its best quarter since 1987. Hence, a perfect reminder of why not panicking, as well as not deviating from a long-term plan is so important. While the market can and does have unexpected returns at times, we factor those in, and plan for the unexpected.

Regarding the economy and the stock market, we give you our thoughts, specifically on the past quarter and outlook further below. If you would like, we also have a link to the Q3 2020 Global Market Outlook by Russell Investments, click here*, and for a slightly different perspective, a link to the midyear outlook from Capital Group/American Funds, click here* .
*Please note, when you click, then scroll and click the link underneath the Russell Investments and/or Capital Group/American Funds picture to download the pdf of the article(s) .

In this issue of our Investment Newsletter:


  • An overview of recent market activity, along with Our Perspective...

  • A recap of the performance of major market indices from the past quarter 

  • Access to our CRS (customer relationship summary) form

  • Asset class diversification: why it matters

  • Upcoming Economic Calendar

You will find past investment articles, directly on our website, found under the Articles tab. 

If there is a topic of interest you would like to see covered in the future, please reply back to this email to let us know, or  click here . Likewise, if you have any questions on this or anything else, feel free to reply back.

F rom an article that was originally printed in Newsday this past April, we thought you may find this of interest:  " Market Corrections: Calculating whether your retirement plans can stay on track ". To access this article, please click here
Our Perspective on Recent Market News and Activity
Our synopsis of the past quarter, a look ahead, and putting it all in perspective:
The older many of us get, the more we see things that we hope turn out to be once-in-a-lifetime type of events. Whether it was the events of 9/11, the Financial Crisis, or now a Global Pandemic, one thing is for sure: life comes at times with some significant challenges. With that said, experience has also taught us that bad days do not last forever, and we will move past these difficult times as we have in our history. The second quarter of 2020 was yet another one of those examples.

Looking forward, we are certainly not here saying that the rest of 2020 will be a picnic, nor even 2021 as well. There will undoubtedly be coming periods of volatility that will test all investors ability to maintain and stick with a long-term investment plan. The key is that in order to meet most of our goals, our ability to grow wealth over time while offsetting taxes and inflation requires a steadfastness and belief in the strategy. 

A resurgence of new Coronavirus cases in some states that had been minimally affected, has caused some more uncertainty for investors. The primary driver of that is not necessarily the virus itself, but rather fears of another round of government mandated shutdowns. We do not anticipate that to happen, but when the government gets involved, you cannot rule it out. Some of the increase in new cases is due to increased testing, but not all of it. While cases have increased, fortunately death rates from the virus have not yet. It appears that doctors and nurses have learned a lot about treating patients with the virus, however perhaps a rise in death rates will lag the new cases as in the past, only time will tell. 

From an economic standpoint, many economists are anticipating that the recovery process will be slow, perhaps a couple of years with some not expecting to see an unemployment rate at or below 4% until at least 2023. It is encouraging to see that the number of airline passengers has shown a steady increase since the bottom back in April.
Over the preceding 4 months or so, Coronavirus induced lock-downs wreaked havoc on the U.S. and global economies. Millions have filed for unemployment benefits. Additionally, widespread civil unrest in many American cities has added a volatile new element to the mix. Yet despite all of this, stocks are down on a year-to-date basis, but they are not necessarily out as many investors are optimistically looking ahead to an eventual recovery. Adding to those hopes, is the massive government stimulus measures and ultra-low interest rates. Many companies have benefited from stay at home mandates, including e-commerce, video streaming and food delivery firms. Unlike previous downturns, this turn-down has had a unique aspect in that it was self-imposed by governments in response to a global health crisis. As such, it is not difficult for investors to look forward to an end to this chapter in an eventual post-COVID recovery period. 

Some interesting perspective from the Capital Groups article in our newsletter, “Bear markets are painful, no doubt about it. And when you are in the middle of one, it feels like it’s never going to end.  But it is important to remember that during the post-World War II era, bull markets have been far more robust than bear markets, and they’ve lasted considerably longer as well. While every market decline is unique, over the past 70 years the average bear market has lasted 14 months and resulted in an average loss of 33%. By contrast, the average bull market has run for 72 months – or more than five times longer-and the average gain has been 279%. Moreover, returns have often been strongest right after the market bottoms, as investors learned in the last severe downturn. After the carnage of 2008, U.S. stocks finished 2009 with a 23% gain”.  

After the March 23 rd low, the S&P 500 returned over 37.7% during the next 59 trading days, including the benchmark index’s largest 50-day rally in history. If history is any indication, there could be more gains ahead. Looking at the other largest 50-day rallies, stocks were higher 100% of the time six and 12 months later. The average 6-month return was 10.2% while the average 1-year return was 17.3%. As Rob Lovelace, Vice Chairman of the Capital Group recently said, “It’s hard to know how wide the valley is, but I believe we will end up in a better place two years from now”.   
Major Market Indices
Below is the Q2 '20 price return performance of some of the major indices:
CRS (customer relationship summary) form
 
As per Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requirements, attached is the CRS (Customer relationship summary) form that advisors are required to provide to all clients. To access this, please click here .  If you would like us to email or mail a hard copy, please feel free to call or email us to let us know.
"Asset class diversification: why it matters", is a topic that will help show the thought process that goes into why it is important that portfolios are constructed the way that they are. To access the article, please click here .
On the Investment Horizon
Upcoming Key Dates on the Economic Calendar 

  • First Friday of each month: Unemployment report for the prior month, released at 8:30AM.

  • Friday, July 3 - Independence Day observed: NYSE closed.
  • Tuesday, July 28 - Wednesday, July 29: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
  • Thursday, July 30 at 8:30AM - GDP, 2nd quarter (advance estimate).

  • Wednesday, August 19 - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases minutes of previous meeting at 2PM.
  • Thursday, August 7 at 8:30AM - GDP, 2nd quarter (second estimate).

  • Monday, September 7 - Labor Day: NYSE closed.
  • Tuesday, September 15 - Wednesday, September 16: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
  • Wednesday, September 30 at 8:30AM - GDP, 2nd quarter (third estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd quarter.

  • Wednesday, October 7 - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases minutes of previous meeting at 2PM.
If you desire an appointment, have any questions on any of this material, or any other financial subjects may relate to your own financial circumstance, please reach out to us at the contact information below:
 
 
Sincerely,
 
Brian Cohen, CCO; email:  brian@landmarkwealthmgmt.com ; phone: 631-923-2487
Chris Congema, CFP®;  email:  chris@landmarkwealthmgmt.com ; phone: 631-923-2486
Joe Favorito, CFP®; email:  jfavorito@landmarkwealthmgmt.com ; phone: 631-930-5336

Direct office email:  info@landmarkwealthmgmt.com  
Direct phone: 631-923-2485


This communication is from  Landmark Wealth Management, LLC , a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisory firm. The information in this email is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax, legal, or investment advice from an independent professional / financial advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Information and use of materials contained in this email, including text and attachments, is confidential and is for the use of the intended recipient(s) only. If received in error, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this communication, or any of its contents, is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please reply to the sender and delete the original message and any copy of it from your systems. Be also advised that email communications are not secure. All e-mail sent to or from this address will be recorded by the Landmark Wealth Management, LLC email system and is subject to archival, monitoring, and inspection pursuant to securities regulations. Please direct any matters regarding this policy to  info@landmarkwealthmgmt.com
 Landmark Wealth Management, LLC
900 Walt Whitman Road, Suite 208
Melville, NY 11747
 (631) 923-2485