Source: Bloomberg, FTSE Russell, FactSet, MSCI, NAREIT, Standard & Poor's, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Investors Should Not Be Overly Pessimistic
The third quarter of 2022 saw financial assets continue their year-to-date decline, as positive stock-bond correlations and a pullback in commodity prices delivered negative returns across all asset classes except cash. A third consecutive rate hike of 75bps from the Fed piled further pressure on equities and bonds, with U.S. large cap down 4.9% and US fixed income markets down similarly off 4.8% in 3Q22. Additionally, the combination of rising rates and growing concerns around a policy error may be leading us into a recession.
Although 4Q22 looks set to be another tough quarter for public markets, investors should not be overly pessimistic. S&P 500 forward multiples are currently ~9% below their long-term average, while high quality fixed income valuations are currently sitting at 10-year lows. These attractive valuations, coupled with elevated interest rate and equity volatility, should be welcomed by investors, as a combination of the two has historically led to significant long-term investment opportunities.
Market Update: Stocks rally today to kick off the fourth quarter with the Dow up about 800 points, or 2.5%+ at market close today (Oct 3, 2022), and investors brace for more volatility.
This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance may not be indicative of future results.
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