|
In This Issue:
- Market Update: It's All About the Weather
- Washington, D.C. Update
- USRPA Visits Guatemala City
- USDA Emergency Relief Program for 2022 Losses
- Save the Date: Texas Rice Roundup
-
RMTC 2024: Registration NOW OPEN!
- 3rd Annual Ray Stoesser Memorial Scholarship
- Photo from Rice Country
| |
Market Update: It's All About the Weather | |
The El Niño weather pattern means different things to different regions, and the impacts are far-reaching across the rice chain. For example, El Niño was the reason cited by the Indian government to restrict exports. In California, it means a return to wetter weather and a full-size crop. In South America, its absence has meant drought and a reduced crop last year, and its return has gone so far as to cause flooding in places like Ecuador to reduce their crop. Some have blamed El Niño for the problems with the Mississippi River, and a newly emerging problem is the freshwater drought in the Panama Canal and its ensuing reduction of throughput. Let's not leave out that southern Louisiana is suffering salt intrusion from lack of rain. "If we don’t get 20 inches of rain by planting season, we will cut back 30% on acres,” according to a leading rice farmer. Weather patterns and climate risk continue to play a significant role in the rice market, and being able to respond in a timely manner is of utmost importance. | |
Source: https://twitter.com/majorflood42 | |
|
All this chaos shines a light on the United States as the clear winner in the Western Hemisphere in the next several months — we need only to take advantage of the opportunity. The large crop makes us the only supplier to Central and South America until their harvest in the Spring of 2024, but we are having trouble loading barges due to the low levels of the Mississippi. The poor milling quality and low head yields can be turned into a positive by helping the U.S. industry claw back some of its market share in the parboiled space. Conversations are starting around the possibility of U.S. long grain finding its way to Cuba since Vietnam shipments are getting tied up in the Panama Canal. Even the spread between U.S. long-grain and Asian rice is the smallest it’s been in years because of strong demand from Indonesia and no shipments from India. Every opportunity has its challenges, but things are setting up to be an exciting year.
The monthly FAO Rice Price Update dropped for its second consecutive month for October, but it’s still 24% more than this time last year. The drop was led by Japonica varieties, falling 9% from last month with California in full swing, while Indica varieties dropped 5.3% as the panic works its way out of the market from the Indian export ban. If Indonesia didn’t double its imports in the last quarter of the year, we could have seen more softening in Thai and Viet prices, but Indonesia’s insistence on procuring supplies for food security in the event of severe weather events has kept the pressure on prices.
The monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand report was just issued and offers a relatively sideways outlook for rice. Carryout dropped 600,000 cwt to 22.2 million cwt this month, with few updates for other supply/demand elements. Of note, however, is an increase of 10% in the estimate for the size of the Brazil crop from this month to last month. The new estimate now puts Brazil at 7.5 million metric tons. The increase comes with the return of El Niño and solid rains as high as 200% of normal in some regions. This means more competition for Mexico after May 2024 when the Brazil harvest is ready for export.
The weekly export sales report shows net sales of 36,000 MT this week, down 62% from the previous week and 43% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Venezuela and Mexico. Exports of 96,100 MT — a marketing-year high — were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior four-week average. The destinations were primarily to Iraq (43,300 MT), Mexico (38,300 MT), Haiti (7,000 MT), Canada (2,900 MT), and Jordan (2,200 MT).
| |
|
House Agricultural Labor Working Group Releases Interim Report
On Tuesday, the House Committee on Agriculture's Agricultural Labor Working Group released an interim report on the labor challenges facing the agricultural sector. The report outlines initial findings based on a series of stakeholder roundtables the Working Group has held over the past four months. These roundtables covered topics such as challenges in accessing and navigating the H-2A temporary agricultural program and labor and producer perspectives on the H-2A program. The Working Group is co-chaired by Reps. Rick Crawford (R-AR) and Don Davis (D-NC) will work toward developing legislative solutions to the challenges identified in the interim report.
Farm Bill and Appropriations Update
As of this week, all four Agriculture Committee leaders have publicly stated support for extending the 2018 farm bill as they continue to work on the next farm bill. There is interest from both parties in including an extension on the next continuing resolution; however, specifics of an extension have yet to be determined. The current continuing resolution (CR) expires on November 17. Currently, most are optimistic that an agreement can be reached on another CR to temporarily fund the government and avoid a shutdown while the House and Senate continue work on the funding bills for fiscal year 2024. The House has passed seven of twelve of its appropriation bills but failed to pass the bill to fund USDA in September. The Senate passed three of its appropriation bills last week, including the USDA funding bill.
| |
USRPA Visits Guatemala City | |
Last week, USRPA staff traveled to Guatemala City to visit promotional activities in retail stores and schools, continuing to engage with the Guatemalan rice association ARROZGUA to promote interest in U.S. rice in the market. USRPA CFO, Grace Wang successfully monitored promotional programs implemented at various retail locations. | |
USRPA’s Guatemala campaign USA Arroz targets consumers, mainly households and mothers, educating and promoting their consumption of U.S. rice. USRPA also successfully conducted audits of the programs in Guatemala through an in-person contractor interview and the examination of reports and documents. | |
USDA to Provide More Than $3 Billion to Commodity and Specialty Crop Producers Impacted by 2022 Natural Disasters | |
Last week, USDA announced more than $3 billion to provide assistance to commodity and specialty crop producers impacted by natural disaster events in 2022. Eligible impacted producers can apply for financial assistance through the Emergency Relief Program (ERP) 2022.
Administered by FSA, the program will help offset the financial impacts of crop yield and value losses from qualifying disasters occurring in 2022.
Producers can apply for ERP 2022 starting Oct. 31, 2023. The application deadline has not yet been determined and will be announced at a later date.
| |
Save the Date: Texas Rice Roundup | |
Thank you to Capital Farm Credit for your continued support of Texas rice farmers! | |
RMTC 2024: Registration is Now OPEN | |
Registration is now open for RMTC 2024! Register at our early bird rate of $600 today. | |
3rd Annual Ray Stoesser Memorial Scholarship: Message from 2023 Recipient Gayla Rose | |
Click on picture to hear from our 2023 scholarship recipient, Gayla Rose. | |
|
"Just in time."
Thank you to Texas farmer Casey Dishman for always sharing your views with us!
| | |
|  |
Food & Agriculture
Regulatory & Policy Roundup
| | |
|
Grain: World Markets and Trade
| | |
World Agricultural Production
| | |
Brazil: Grain & Feed Update
Rice market prices have started to rise while production costs are easing, making it more attractive for farmers to sow rice for the upcoming harvest. Post forecasts rice harvested area at 1.5 million hectares (ha) for MY 2023/34, a 2 percent increase over the previous season.
| | |
India: Grain & Feed Update
The MY 2023/2024 rice production forecast is lowered to 128 MMT due to below-par 2023 monsoon rains and El Niño conditions arriving in the latter part of 2023.
| | |
|
January 17, 2024
Western Rice Belt Conference
El Campo, TX
More Information Soon
| |
|
January 30-31, 2024
27th Annual National Conservation Systems Cotton & Rice Conference
Jonesboro, AR
More Information
| |
|
June 4 - 6, 2024
Rice Market & Technology Convention
Cancun, Mexico
Registration
| | |
USRPA does not discriminate in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, or marital/family status. Persons who require alternative means for communication of information (such as Braille, large print, sign language interpreter or translation) should contact USRPA at 713-974-7423. |
| | | |
