Ag Weather Update

Matt Dixon, Meteorologist, UK Ag Weather Center

Updated September 8, 2021

Past Conditions

Happy Wednesday, everyone! I hope you had a great Labor Day weekend. I mentioned in last week’s Ag Weather Update that this past month would be one of the warmest August months. In fact, preliminary data suggest it will go down as a top 25 warmest Augusts of all-time (with data going back to 1895) and the warmest since 2016. I did fail to mention how wet August was, and that was before we finished the month with a couple of days of exceptionally wet conditions. Overall, the combination of a cold front and the remnants of Hurricane Ida produced 1-3+ inches for most of the state. While not yet official, preliminary data shows this pushed the state average to 5.32 inches for the month of August. That would push the month into the top 20 wettest Augusts of all-time. Seeing both high temperatures and rain in the top 25 is quite unusual. Normally the warmest months of all time are associated with dry conditions (drought).

The only section of the state that really missed out on the rainfall from Ida was across the Purchase area of Western Kentucky. Fortunately, this region saw some decent rains over the weekend as another cold front led to accumulations of a half to 1 inch+ across this area and northeast up into the Bluegrass Region. Overall, the state averaged 2.16 inches for the week, almost 1.5 inches above normal for this time of year. Luckily, we got the rain and avoided high winds from the remnants of the hurricane.

Big changes arrived for the second half of the workweek. The calendar turned to September last Wednesday, marking the official start of meteorological fall. Mother Nature took notice. Northerly flow pushed cooler and much less humid air into the area. Highs on Thursday and Friday barely reached the middle 70s to low 80s. Normal highs for this time of year run in the middle 80s, while lows typically dip into the low to middle 60s. We had a few borderline chilly nights with the coldest coming on Friday morning (9/3), when temps in several locations dropped into the low 50s.

Data for the Past 7 Days

Forecast

Following the wet conditions last week, I think most will welcome the dry week ahead. If you’re looking for a chance to harvest the first corn of the season or make a fall cutting of hay, this is your week! The only hiccup to the dry conditions is a thin line of showers and embedded thunderstorms passing through the area today along a cold front. Coverage has picked up a bit in the past hour (9:30-10:30AM). Below is a look a radar at 10:30AM. This activity will pass east/southeast through the day. Some could see a quick burst of heavy rain with the line’s passage. The rest of the week and into the first half of next workweek will run dry.

Temperatures take a dive behind the cold front for the second half of the workweek. Highs will run in the middle 70s to low 80s for Thursday and Friday. Unfortunately, they go in the other direction for the weekend as summer makes a comeback. Highs will likely be back in the 80s area wide, but luckily, humidity doesn’t look terrible. Outlooks hint at the warmth sticking around into the third week of September.

I stumbled across this little guy in Scott County on Monday. If you follow folklore, this is bad news for Kentucky’s upcoming winter. Saying that, I’ll stick with my own forecast moving forward!

If you’re interested in woolly worm folklore, here is a good write up from the National Weather Service in La Crosse, Wisconsin. Beattyville, Ky. also has the Woolly Worm Festival, which is held October 22-24^th this year.