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Ag Weather Update

Matt Dixon, Meteorologist

UK Ag Weather Center

Updated October 26, 2021

Past Conditions 

Kentucky farmers had fantastic fall weather that allowed them to get in the fields most of last week. Outside of showers across Southeastern Kentucky on Thursday and sprinkles across the Bluegrass on Friday, almost everyone else ran dry for a five-day stretch between Monday and Friday. Temperatures were fairly cool to start the week with lows dipping into the upper 30s to low 40s on Monday morning.  Highs generally stayed in the upper 60s to mid-70s each day through Thursday with mostly sunny skies in place. These mild temperatures continued a trend of warmer than normal temperatures  seen through much of October. Below is a look at the month-to-date departure from normal mean temperatures across the Ohio Valley, photo courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Most of the state is running 5-7 degrees above normal through October 25!


Showers returned over the weekend ahead of a strong cold front on Sunday night, but they were very light in nature. Overall, the state saw a second straight week of below normal rainfall, only averaging 0.16 inches. Any accumulations associated with the front Sunday night fell after the data cutoff for the week and will not be reflected in the data table below. Those accumulations over the past 48 hours from the Kentucky Mesonet are available below. Accumulations at the start of the workweek ranged from a quarter to 1 inch+ across the state.


Data for the Past 7 Days 

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Judging by the latest Kentucky Crop Progress and Condition Report, favorable weather conditions last week led to corn and bean harvest progress increasing by 9 and 10%, respectively. However, we’re still running behind the five-year averages at this time of year. Unfortunately, progress this week may be hard to find. Following a wet start to the work week, we are dry and chilly on Tuesday. Highs today will be in the mid-50s to low 60s, slightly below normal for this time of year. Tonight, lows are expected to dip into the mid to upper 30s across much of Kentucky (Western Kentucky should stay in the 40s), bringing the possibility of patchy frost (National Weather Service forecast lows below). As I mentioned in the Ag Weather Update last week, this is the time of year when we typically see our first freeze of the fall season. 


We remain dry and fairly cool on Wednesday, before rain chances return to the area starting late Wednesday night and stick around for the second half of the workweek as a low-pressure system slowly works through the area. Some drizzle or light showers will even stick around for the first half of the weekend across the eastern half of Kentucky. Below is a look at accumulations over that period from the Weather Prediction Center. Much of Kentucky could get ¾ of an inch or more.


Looking further out, it may be time to put that pot of chili on the stove. Following a warm October, outlooks favor below normal temperatures for the start of November. Normal highs for this time of year run in the upper 50s to mid-60s, while lows typically dip into the upper 30s to low 40s. On a positive note, the outlooks also favor below normal precipitation.

Read the Kentucky Ag Weather Synopsis

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from around UK and Beyond

2021-22 Winter Outlook: drier, warmer South, wetter North with return of La Niña - Staff, October 21, 2021  

Soybean Seed Quality Issues Due to Fungal Infections – Dr. Carl Bradley, UK Plant Pathology Extension Specialist, October 19, 2021 

6 things forecasters want you to know about weather and climate – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, June 19, 2020 

See How the Dixie Fire Created Its Own Weather - Nadja Popovich, Noah Pisner, Nicholas Bartzokas, Evan Grothjan, Daniel Mangosing, Karthik Patanjali and Scott Reinhard, New York Times, October 20, 2021 


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