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Ag Weather Update

Matt Dixon, Meteorologist

UK Ag Weather Center

Updated 9-2-22

Summer season of extremes

Happy Friday, Kentucky! August 31st officially signaled the end of meteorological summer. Precipitation-wise, it was a season of extremes. The 14th driest June on record was followed by the 4th wettest July on record (128 years). That wet trend then continued into the first half of August, before turning dry for a couple weeks. In fact, up until Sunday (8/28), the state had only averaged 0.57 inches over the past 14 days.

Since then, most of Kentucky saw a decent amount of rainfall early in the workweek. Below is a look at those accumulations over the past 7 days, most of which fell over the course of Monday and Tuesday. The northern half of the state was the big winner with many picking up over an inch. Some much more than others. The La Grange, Shelbyville, and Richmond Mesonet stations all topped 2 inches. Richmond at 3.17! Saying that, others missed out. Much of South-Central Kentucky, near the Tennessee border, stayed under a quarter inch.

Side note - I have to send a shoutout to Barry Farmer! Barry is an Engineer Associate in the Department (BAE) and developed the program to make the map below. Thanks, Barry!

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Start of fall is here, but it doesn't feel like it!

Meteorological fall started on Thursday, but don't expect summer to go out without a fight! The passage of a cold front led to some spectacular weather for the midweek timeframe, but we've started going in the opposite direction today (9/2). Winds from the south will bring summer-like temperatures and humidity back to the region for the Labor Day weekend. Look for high temperatures to generally stay in the 80s, but there will be times of relief with showers in place.

Those rain chances really go on the increase starting tomorrow (9/3). Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be on the table. Any storm will be capable of heavy rainfall within this very moist airmass. If you're going to the UK game, stay weather-aware. I'll be up in the press box monitoring any storms that do develop (hopefully they don't). Just as an FYI, play is suspended when lightning is detected within 8 miles of the stadium. The suspension is for at least 30 minutes and that's if no other strikes are detected within an 8 mile radius. Otherwise, the clock resets....Once again, fingers crossed we can avoid storms tomorrow!

Scattered to numerous rain chances remain with the area through Labor Day. It won't be a washout, but do expect periodic rounds of showers and storms. Below is a look at forecast accumulations over the next three days. The highest coverage and brunt of the rain looks to fall across the eastern half of the state. Forecast confidence then takes a dive going into the midweek time frame, although outlooks do hint at a period of above normal temperatures and precipitation. Stay tuned!

Hurricane Season 2022

It's that time of year when we start to look south for any hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Occasionally, these storms make there way up into Kentucky, capable of positive or negative impacts. In one example, Kentucky soybeans benefited from the remnants of Hurricane Isaac following the drought of 2012, which amounted to about 2 inches across much of the area. On the other side of the spectrum, flooding can be a factor, in addition to high winds. This was the case back in 2008 as the remnants of Hurricane Ike passed through Kentucky, producing spotty rounds of hurricane force winds.

Kentucky has now seen 5 straight years with at least one tropical system impacting the area. What will 2022 bring? So far, we haven't had any pass through the Bluegrass State, BUT we're now heading into peak hurricane season. Following a quiet August, the Atlantic has started to wake up over the past week. While the current activity won't impact us, the latest update of the Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook (below) points to the potential for many more opportunities over the next few months. Probabilities are still leaning toward an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season with 14 to 20 named storms expected. 

More info: NOAA still expects above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Related News from UK and Beyond

Kentucky Crop Progress and Condition Report - USDA NASS Kentucky Field Office, August 29, 2022

September edition of the Kentucky Monthly Climate Perspective on Drought and Hydrologic Conditions - Kentucky Climate Center, September 1, 2022

SBA Deadline Approaching for Working Capital Loans in Kentucky for Secretary of Agriculture Disaster Declaration for Tornadoes - Warren County Agriculture Extension Office, August 29, 2022

Soybean Nodulation During A Hot Dry Summer - Conner Raymond, UK Grain Crops Extension Associate, and Dr. Lloyd Murdock, UK Professor Emeritus, August 25, 2022

UK Summer 2022 Equine Science Review - Holly Wiemers, MA, APR Communications and Managing Director, UK Ag Equine Programs, August 26, 2022

Hurricane Andrew at 30: Where science has taken us - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, August 22, 2022


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