Following our round of rainfall last weekend, we’ve stayed dry and cool over the first half of the workweek. As of this afternoon (1/12), there are still some portions of the Ohio and Green Rivers across Western Kentucky in minor to moderate flood stages but those levels will recede over the coming days. Outside of isolated to widely scattered rain/snow showers on Thursday/Thursday night (non-impactful), most will remain dry through Friday. That’s when the forecast really gets dicey.
You’ve probably already heard that there is the potential for another snowstorm this weekend. I want to highlight the word, POTENTIAL. Models currently hint at a frontal system passing to our south, which would place Kentucky on the north side of the disturbance with an increased potential for frozen precipitation. There is still a ton of uncertainty with this system four days out in the future. While models may be hinting at significant snow right now, a slight shift in the track of the disturbance can lead to a very different outcome. But don't worry yet. I’ll send out an update as we move closer to the weekend when forecast confidence increases, and if the forecast trends in an unfavorable direction. Remember, winter weather is one of the hardest things to forecast in the meteorological profession. As of now, don’t take snowfall total forecasts to heart. THEY WILL CHANGE. Despite that, there is at least a chance for heavy snow, so stay tuned to the forecast for updates.
I included a look at one model run below. Keep in mind that there are multiple models to analyze. Also, the number of models available will increase as the event gets closer. This is the 7am EST run of the GFS model. The focus will be how the track of that red “L” (low pressure center) evolves with future model runs. That will have an impact on total accumulations, timing, and even precipitation type. It currently shows a snowy outlook for this weekend, but once again, THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES. Stay tuned.