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Ag Weather Update

Matt Dixon, Meteorologist

UK Ag Weather Center

Updated 3-11-22 at 415PM EST

Winter Weather Update

Well…..just when we thought spring was here, Old Man Winter wants to make another appearance. One of my friends sent me the picture below and I feel like it’s nothing but truth! Our "third winter" is just around the corner with snow and VERY cold temperatures on the table. Thought I’d send out a quick update before leaving for the weekend. 


Looking at the current forecast, the entirety of the state is either under a Winter Weather Advisory or a Winter Storm Warning. Below is a picture of those headlines from the National Weather Service in Louisville. Models have been pushing the higher accumulations across Eastern Kentucky the last couple days, hence the “Warning” criteria across that region. One thing to note: these headlines are for a snow event. No ice with this round!


The brunt of this storm will work through the area this evening and into the overnight. A cold front currently (4:00PM) slicing through Kentucky is setting the stage for the snow event. Current temperatures as of 4:15PM EST show Eastern Kentucky in the 60s, while W KY sits in the 30s. This will be a shock to the system!

While precipitation may initially start as rain, a quick transition to snow is expected with intensity picking up through the overnight, especially across Eastern Kentucky. Yes….it’s March 11th, but these kind of snowstorms can happen this late in the year. Remember back to March 4th and 5th of 2015 when Lexington recorded 17.1 inches! Thankfully, we’re not expecting near that much with this event, although some portions of Eastern Kentucky could exceed 6. Below is a look at current forecast accumulations (2:50 PM Friday) from the National Weather Service, courtesy of the Louisville office. Be sure to check out their briefing slides for additional info.

Snow Accumulations.png

We know forecasting winter weather isn't an exact science. In doing so, I’ve also included a few maps below from the Weather Prediction Center showing probabilities for 24 hour accumulations of => 1, 2, and 4 inches. Once again, the bullseye is across Eastern KY. At least 2 inches is a near certainty across SE KY, in addition to a very solid chance of seeing 4+.


Be sure to take it slow if out and about. Sure, warm ground temperatures will initially hinder accumulations, but as we’ve seen in the past, intense snowfall can and will eventually overtake road systems. This is especially the case as air temperatures continue to decrease as we go through the overnight. In fact, we are looking at lows in the upper teens to middle 20s! Normal lows for this time of year are in the low to middle 30s. Unfortunately, breezy northwest flow will stick with the area tomorrow, limiting highs to the 20s for many across the state. Winds gusting to around 25 mph could push wind chills down in the single digits. If there is one last day to have chili before spring, tomorrow is it!

In some good news, my fingers are crossed that this is our last round of winter weather. Outlooks below paint a totally different story moving forward. We see temperatures going on the uphill climb on Sunday and into next week. In fact, could we be looking at some 70s on Thursday? Welcome to spring in the Ohio Valley! At least we get to watch basketball all weekend! I'll support my friends at UK, but....I still bleed black and gold! Boiler Up!!!!!

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