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Ag Weather Update

Matt Dixon, Meteorologist

UK Ag Weather Center

Updated November 16, 2021

Past Conditions 

The past week featured a little bit of everything from mild temperatures to gusty winds, and even some wintry precipitation. We started out on a very mild note with highs consistently jumping into the upper 60s to low 70s between Monday and Wednesday. No complaints, but these temperatures would be more typical of mid-October. The weather took a 180-degree turn with the passage of a strong cold front on Thursday, bringing field work to a halt. This boundary produced a band of widespread rain showers across the region, accompanied by some gusty winds. Overall, this event accounted for most of the 0.56-inch state rain average for the week. Almost everyone ended up between a quarter and one inch (map below). 


Chilly temperatures, gusty winds, and light rounds of precipitation were the trend during the remainder of the week. Winds gusted to over 30 mph for many locations and some even topped 40. If leaves hadn't already fallen, I’m sure most are on the ground now. Fortunately, the forecast below does present nice weather for at least a couple of days for anyone who needs to rake or mulch (like me!). The bigger highlight was our first glimpse of winter, with some areas getting sleet and even light snow but, with ground temperatures so warm, there was really no impact. Speaking of winter, be on the lookout for a Kentucky Ag Weather Winter Forecast in the coming weeks!

Data for the Past 7 Days 

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We’ve now gotten to that time of year where we can see significant temperature swings in the Bluegrass State. We saw highs over the previous weekend only in the 40s and lows in the mid to upper 20s on Monday morning. Now we’re trending in the other direction. Southwest winds and mostly sunny skies today will push highs throughout the 60s across the state. Those southerly winds then turn gusty on Wednesday. Peak gusts will likely range in the 25 to 35 mph range, pushing highs around the 70-degree mark! Unfortunately, the temperatures and high winds are a precursor to another cold front. Similar to what we saw last Thursday, we are looking at rain accumulations of a quarter to a half-inch Wednesday night and into Thursday. Those forecast accumulations over the next few days are below. 


Winds will turn to the northwest behind the frontal passage and Friday morning lows drop back down into the mid to upper 20s. We are only looking at highs on Friday in the 40s. Relatively cool weather sticks around through the weekend, but precipitation chances return over the second half. This is one of the typical temperature rollercoasters of the fall season! 

Even with the rollercoaster pattern in place, outlooks hint that below normal temperatures look to win out in the end. I listed the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks below. Keep in mind when looking at these maps that it doesn’t mean we can’t have a warmer day here and there, but overall, the second half of November is expected to be cooler than average for this time of year. Outlooks suggest near to above normal precipitation. Unfortunately, early indications are for a chilly Thanksgiving this year.


UK student looking for another spring class? Try Biometeorology! 

Fall advising is upon us as we look forward to the spring semester. If you’re looking for an extra class, consider AEN 461: Biometeorology. In this class, I focus on the relationship and impact of weather and climate on living organisms, particularly Kentucky agriculture. In just a couple of examples, students learn the basics of weather forecasting in the Ohio Valley, developing short- and long-range forecasts. Last year students learned firsthand how complicated the weather can be in Kentucky when we had three winter storms in February. We’ll also take a look at Kentucky’s shifting climate and the corresponding impacts on Kentucky agriculture. If you’re a weather nerd like me, this is your course!

One change to note: The class is now being offered on Tuesdays and Thursdays from 2:00-3:15 PM. This three-credit hour course is open to undergraduate and graduate students. If interested and have questions, please don’t hesitate to send me an email at I'd be happy to have you enroll!

Read the Kentucky Ag Weather Synopsis

Ag Weather Related News

from around UK and Beyond

Heated Water Trough Safety – Dr. Clair Thunes, Equine Nutritionist, November 13, 2021 

October 2021 was ninth-wettest, sixth-warmest on record for U.S. – Rebecca Lindsey with, November 9, 2021 

Leave your Firewood Pests Out in the Cold! – Dr. Ric Bessin, UK Extension Entomologist Specialist, November 9, 2021 


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