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Ag Weather Update

Matt Dixon, Meteorologist, UK Ag Weather Center 

Updated June 7, 2021


Past Conditions 


Mother Nature has different plans for 2021. May is typically our wettest month of the year, but as I mentioned in last week’s Ag Weather Update, most of Kentucky was 1-3 inches below normal for the month. Fast-forward to the first week of June and Mother Nature has flipped the switch. Looking at data between May 31st and June 6th, the state averaged 1.65 inches last week. Most of the rain fell between Tuesday night and Thursday, followed by additional activity on Sunday. Keep in mind that this number is an average. A large portion of the western half of the state got 2+ inches. Totals decreased to the east, with most in the 0.5 to 1.5 inch range. The higher totals broke a span of three straight weeks of below average rainfall.


Temperatures also ran below seasonable norms for much of the week as cloud cover and rain kept temperatures in check. Temperatures didn't increase until Friday and Saturday, peaking on Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Data for the Past 7 days

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7-Day Observed Precipitation 

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Forecast 

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It’s starting to feel more like summer across the Bluegrass State. Highs will likely run in the low to middle 80s over the upcoming week, but unlike warm (and relatively dry) weeks this past month, we now have to deal with humidity. Dewpoints will rise into the upper 60s to low 70s, giving a sticky and more tropical feel to the air. 


A very active pattern will accompany the warm and humid airmass. In fact, look for daily chances for showers and storms through the week ahead. We aren’t looking at a washout, but scattered to numerous showers and storms in places are possible each day. This rainfall will follow a typical summer-time pattern, with activity increasing during the day and tapering at night. Heavy rainfall will be possible, which means localized flooding issues could arise. If you’re like me and need to mow the grass, go when you get a chance! I included a look at the seven-day forecast rainfall below. It will be hard to pinpoint the locations of highest accumulations this upcoming week, but 1-1.5 inches looks like a good bet for much of the state.


I included a look at the long-range outlooks for next week. While the outlook hints at near normal temperatures next week, odds increase for below normal precipitation. The models aren’t saying it won't rain, just that the odds suggest we won’t see as much rainfall for what is typical. Remember, the darker shades hint at the highest confidence by forecasters. 

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Read the Kentucky Ag Weather Synopsis

Changes in 'Normals' on a City-By-City Basis

In the first edition of the Ag Weather Update, I mentioned the release of the new climate normals. To recap, these normals are the 30-year average of a particular weather variable and provide a comparison to current weather conditions and forecasts. These normals are updated every decade, with our latest set based on the years 1991-2020. The previous set reflected 1981-2010.


In that previous update, I mentioned that Kentucky has seen a shift to a wetter and warmer climate based on the new normals. In the latest Kentucky hydrologic webinar (link below), which I hosted, I looked more specifically at these changes for a number of cities across the state on the annual timescale (table below). In the end, every city saw an increase in annual average temperature and accumulated precipitation. It was especially interesting to look at the precipitation normals. The largest changes were seen across the eastern half of Kentucky. Lexington, Louisville, and Jackson all saw their annual precipitation normals increase by 3+ inches. If you're interested in a location closer to you, I included links to the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 normals datasets below the table.

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Related News from UK and Beyond

June edition of the Kentucky Monthly Climate Perspective on Drought and Hydrologic Conditions Webinar – Kentucky Climate Center, June 3, 2021


It’s Not Easy Being Green. The Many Colors of Early Season Corn  - The Kernel, Purdue University Corn Extension, June 3, 2021

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