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Ag Weather Update

Matt Dixon, Meteorologist

UK Ag Weather Center

Updated September 27, 2021

Past Conditions 

Fall is here, and it definitely felt like it last week! Following a strong cold front, high temperatures were limited to the middle 60s to low 70s for the start of the fall season last Wednesday and Thursday. In some cases, these cool days led to very chilly nights. Thursday night and Friday morning had the coldest temperatures, when lows dropped into the low to middle 40s (map from the Kentucky Mesonet below). Normal lows for this time of year run in the low to middle 50s. The extreme low across the state was in Paintsville, where the mercury dipped to 38 degrees. This marked the first time the state has had a temperature in the 30s since late May.


Looking at precipitation, we had a highly active start to the workweek with multiple rounds of rainfall between Monday and Wednesday. Overall, the state averaged 1.67 inches for the week. Excluding portions of Western and far Eastern Kentucky, most of the state saw at least an inch (map below). The state average was bumped up by much of North Central Kentucky recording more than two inches. 


With that amount of rainfall and cooler days, conditions are looking pretty good as producers start thinking about seeding winter wheat in the weeks ahead. I’ve included a map below looking at soil moisture as of September 26. Most of the state is running wetter than normal for this time of year, while Western Kentucky is closer to average. However, portions of Western Kentucky are still running 1-2+ inches below normal over the past 30 days.


Data for the Past 7 Days 

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Fall is typically our driest time of the year, and while that hasn’t been the case the past couple of weeks, it will be true this week. Harvest 2021 should move along quite smoothly for at least the next few days. Models do hint at rain chances for Western Kentucky moving into the second half of the workweek and then expanding to include the rest of the state over the weekend. Of course, stay tuned, because the forecast that far out is always uncertain. Temperatures will run warmer this week with highs climbing back into the low to middle 80s today (9/27) under mostly sunny skies and gusty southwest winds (peaking in the 20-25 mph range). These above normal temperatures will stick around through Wednesday before dropping back closer to normal for the second half of the week.


Outlooks have verified nicely from last week, so we aren’t looking at many changes in the weeks ahead. The outlooks now lean toward above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation into the second week of October. I've included a look at the 6-10 day outlook for October 2-6 below.

Read the Kentucky Ag Weather Synopsis

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from around UK and Beyond

Kentucky Grazing Conference to focus on sustainable intensification of pasture management – Katie Pratt, UK Ag Communications, September 27, 2021


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