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Ag Weather Update

Matt Dixon, Meteorologist

UK Ag Weather Center

Updated 12-10-21 at 4:00PM

SEVERE WEATHER Event Tonight and Tomorrow, Stay Weather Aware!

Quick severe weather update! It may be early December, but one of the more notable severe weather setups of the year is on the table tonight and tomorrow. Damaging winds and tornadoes will both be possible as a strong cold front pushes through the region. The Storm Prediction Center updated the outlook below this afternoon, showing the Purchase area of Western Kentucky in a ‘moderate’ risk for severe weather and the remaining western half of Kentucky under an ‘enhanced’ risk. We don’t see ‘moderate’ risk levels very often, but it does suggest that widespread severe storms are likely. I included a look at those risk categories below.


Tornadoes and damaging winds are the two most prominent threats. Below is a look at the tornado and wind outlooks for this event and the probabilities of a tornado or damaging wind event within 25 miles of any point. Also, notice the black dashes across Western and Central Kentucky on the tornado outlook. This is called a hatched area, which suggests a 10% or greater probability of a strong to violent tornado (EF2 – EF5) within 25 miles of any point. Bottom line, the highest probabilities for severe weather are across the western half of Kentucky, BUT don't let your guard down across the rest of the state.

We also need to take into account the flooding threat. Just like the Sunday night/Monday system earlier in the week, heavy rain could lead to localized flooding, especially for low lying areas and around streams. Anywhere from a half to one inch plus will be on the table. Outside of storms, winds will be very breezy with gusts peaking in the 30 – 40+ mph range.


Timing is a MAJOR concern with this event. Current model runs suggest scattered activity forming late this evening and into the early overnight hours across the western half of the state, before congealing into a line moving eastward. Believe the brunt of this event will occur during the overnight hours, especially for those ‘moderate’ and ‘enhanced’ risk areas. If you live in these areas, you NEED to have a way to get warning in the middle of the night and something that will wake you up. I highly suggest getting a NOAA Weather Radio if you haven’t already. If you do have one, make sure it’s ready to go and check the batteries! These devices WILL wake you up if there is a warning and tell you to take shelter. Also, make sure your wireless emergency alerts on your phone are turned on. I included a look at checking this setting from the National Weather Service in Louisville below.

Going into a basement is priority, but if living in a one-story residence, proceed to the inner most room, putting the most walls between you and the outdoor environment. Mobile homes need to be avoided and are NOT considered a safe shelter.


The line will continue moving east across the eastern half of the state tomorrow morning, before exiting Eastern Kentucky early tomorrow afternoon. Please stay weather aware throughout the event and have multiple ways to get warning. Be sure to check with your local National Weather Service office for more information:

Western Kentucky: Paducah NWS

Central Kentucky: Louisville NWS

Eastern Kentucky: Jackson NWS

Northern Bluegrass: Wilmington, OH NWS

Northeastern Kentucky: Charleston, WV NWS


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