Vacancy Declines & Slowing Supply Support Rent Growth
Recent trends in rental performance across the U.S. multifamily sector appear closely tied to changes in vacancy. After rising steadily from late 2021 through the end of 2024, apartment vacancy rates declined in the first quarter of 2025, falling from a peak of 8.14% to 8.07%. The recent decline in vacancy is attributable to the higher quality, 4- and 5-Star apartment segment, where absorption has been strong enough to exceed supply growth. As a result, vacancies for 4- and 5-Star apartments have declined from a peak of 11.7% to 11.2%, and are forecast to fall below 10% by year-end.
While the vacancy rate in the Denver market remains near historic highs at 11%, vacancy likely peaked in Q4 2024 and is now on a downward swing due to a combination of higher levels of demand and a slowdown in construction.Only 1,200 new units are expected to be delivered in Downtown Denver in 2025 – the lowest annual total since 2012. This pullback in supply should help ease market imbalances and support rent stabilization through the first half of 2025, assuming demand remains steady.
A slowdown in new supply has also contributed to the strengthening rent environment. Construction starts, the measure of how many apartment units begin getting built in a given period of time, have edged lower across the United States as developers respond to over-supplied conditions in certain markets, especially in the Sun Belt. In 2024, ~327,000 apartment units began construction across the nation. This was a 40% decline from the previous year, and the lowest total number of new apartment units started within a given year over the past decade. Roughly 128,000 new units were completed in Q1 2025, marking the third straight quarter of declining deliveries.
Looking ahead, reduced construction activity is expected to support continued rent growth. Only about 63,000 units broke ground in Q1—well below the long-term average—and the total number of units under construction fell to approximately 648,000, the lowest level since early 2018.
Source: CoStar News
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