Recap: 10/13/20 Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar

Southeast Climate Webinar Recap

Summary of the October 13 Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is held on the 2nd Tuesday of each month at 10:00 am ET. This series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, in partnership with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region's stakeholders and interested parties with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as wildfires, agriculture production, disruption to water supply, and ecosystems.

Register here for future monthly webinars. Next month’s webinar on Tuesday November 10th, 10:00 am ET, and will include a Winter Outlook.

September Climate Conditions and Outlooks

Webinar recording is found here

Temperature: September temperatures were near average, with above average minimum temperatures.
Precipitation: September precipitation was near average for the Southeast, and above average in the Florida Panhandle.
U.S. Caribbean: Slightly above average temperatures and slightly below average precipitation.
Storm events: September storm events included Hurricanes Sally and Delta, Tropical Storm Beta, hen-egg sized hail in NC, and an EF-1 Tornado in Georgia.
Drought: No drought for Southeast and Puerto Rico in September. A few pockets of abnormally dry conditions remain.
ENSO (El Nino / Southern Oscillation): The NOAA Climate Prediction Center put out a La Nina Advisory on October 8th with an 85% change of La Nina continuing through the winter and a 60% chance of it continuing through the spring.
Atlantic Tropical Storms: This is continuing to be a very active Tropical Storm season with 25 named storms so far.
Looking ahead: Autumn will continue to be warm with Alabama seeing drier conditions while the rest of Southeast could be wet or dry.

Water Resources

Streamflow: River streamflow remains above normal across the Southeast after Hurricanes Sally and Delta.
Looking ahead: Streamflow forecast is Above Normal for October and becoming Near Normal in November and December.

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Southern corn is harvested, but northern corn is still vulnerable to wind and rain.
Continued high humidity causing fungal diseases in vegetables, peanuts.
Hurricanes Sally and Delta brought rain to the Southeast but caused significant damage to crops along their paths.
Next month is key for potential tropical storm damage.

Spotlight: Fall Foliage Overview and Outlook

The timing of peak fall color and the brilliance of fall color depends on multiple factors, including temperature and precipitation in the summer and early fall.
Looking ahead: Near normal timing and color brilliance in many areas are predicted for the region. However, timing is earlier than prior years and there is a possible increase in color vibrance relative to recent years.

What happened over September: Southeast Temperature

Temperatures were near average across much of the Southeast region and Puerto Rico for the month of September. Monthly mean temperatures were within 2 degrees F (1.1 degrees C) of average for over 90 percent of the 210 long-term (i.e., period of record equaling or exceeding 50 years) stations across the region. Although maximum daily temperatures were near average, high rates of evaporation and the persistent influx of tropical moisture suppressed nighttime cooling during the month resulting in above average minimum temperatures.

A look at temperature departures from normal across the Southeast in September. High Plains RCC.

What happened over September: Southeast Precipitation

Precipitation was variable across the Southeast region during September, with a few wet and dry extremes recorded. The driest locations were found across central Alabama, southern Georgia, and parts of eastern Florida. In contrast, the wettest locations were located across the Florida Panhandle, northern Georgia, western North Carolina, and southern Virginia.

A look at precipitation departures from normal across the Southeast in September. High Plains RCC.

Current Conditions: Drought

No current drought in the Southeast and the U.S. Caribbean. A few pockets of abnormally dry conditions remain.

Current U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Southeast. Maps are updated weekly. National Drought Mitigation Center.

Atlantic Tropical Season Update

2020 is continuing to be a very active Atlantic Tropical Storm season with 25 named storms so far. Twenty two of the 25 named storms have had their earliest formation date on record. September had ten named storms, which is the most on record for the month. Hurricane Sally made landfall on September 16th in Alabama as a Category 2 hurricane, which resulted in high rainfall amounts for the Gulf coast. On September 18th we transitioned to using the greek alphabet for names. Even though we are past the peak of hurricane season, there is still an active amount of time remaining in the season.

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Current Conditions: River Flood Status

Streamflows remain above normal across the Southeast after Hurricanes Sally and Delta.

A look at current river flood conditions. NWS Southeast River Forecast Center.

Looking Ahead: Streamflow and Flooding Forecast

Streamflow Forecast is Above Normal for October, and becoming Near Normal in November and December.

Three month (Nov/Dec) forecast for streamflow. NWS Southeast River Forecast Center.

Acknowledgments

Speakers

Sandra Rayne, Southeast Regional Climate Center
Todd Hamill, NWS Southeast River Forecast Center
Pam Knox, University of Georgia
Chip Konrad, Southeast Regional Climate Center and Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments (CISA, a NOAA RISA Team)

Relevant Resources

Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC)

https://sercc.com/