Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
ACF Basin Precipitation and Climate Conditions and Outlooks
- Near record Atlantic hurricane season continues, Zeta to bring heavy rain to middle and upper ACF (perhaps elsewhere)
- D0 (abnormally dry) in western Alabama and east-central Georgia
- 1-2 inches of rainfall from a shortwave disturbance last weekend
- Most of the ACF well above normal at 30-90 days, exception of east Georgia
- ”La Nina Advisory” now issued by NOAA, 85% chance of continuing through winter
- CPC seasonal forecast favors above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall
- ACF likely to remain mostly drought-free in the short term, but watch for the onset of dry pattern
Alabama Drought Status
- 2020 precipitation has been averaging normal to above normal for most of the state
- Oct 20, 2020 MIG meeting resulted in no change to current Alabama Drought Declaration
- NOAA Winter Outlook emphasizes the existence of La Nina
- Will be assessing potential impacts from Tropical Storm Zeta and future impacts from La Nina conditions
- No reported water availability issues
- OWR continues to monitor conditions
Real-Time Streamflow & Forecasts
- Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the high to below normal range.
- The ACF basin is currently ranked as normal flow for the 7-day average streamflow.
- 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the much above normal range, with new record flow at Chattahoochee River at Atlanta.
- 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the above normal range.
- Real-time groundwater levels across the ACF basin range from normal to high, with most stations in the normal range.
- 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Above Normal
- 3 Month Streamflow forecast - Above early, then Near Normal
ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions
- Inflows into the projects are above normal.
- Lanier and West Point are operating above guide curve.
- WFGeorge drawn down to elevation 186 feet for upstream repairs on dam until November 8.
- Returning projects to guide curve as quickly as possible ahead of Tropical Storm Zeta.
- The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.
David Zierden, FSU
Tom Littlepage, ADECA OWR
Paul Ankcorn, USGS
Troy Ephriam, USACE-Mobile District
Jeff Dobur, SERFC
Summary prepared by:
Rachel McGuire, Auburn University
General Drought Information:
Drought Impact Reporter:
Southeast Climate Perspectives Map
General Climate and El Niño Information:
Streamflow Monitoring & Forecasting
The Complete Set of Briefing Slides From the ACF River Basin Drought Webinar:
Additional Information From the Southeast River Forecast Center: