Southeast Climate Webinar Recap
Summary of the November 10th Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar
The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is held on the 2nd Tuesday of each month at 10:00 am ET. This series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, in partnership with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region's stakeholders and interested parties with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as wildfires, agriculture production, disruption to water supply, and ecosystems.

Register here for future monthly webinars. Next month’s webinar is on Tuesday December 8, 10:00 am ET.
October Climate Conditions and Outlooks

Webinar recording is found here

  • Temperature: October temperatures were above average, with above average minimum temperatures.  
  • Precipitation: October precipitation was variable for the Southeast, with above average for western North Carolina, and below average for eastern Georgia and South Carolina. 
  • U.S. Caribbean: Slightly above average temperatures and average precipitation.
  • Storm events: October storm events included Hurricanes Delta, Zeta, and Eta. There were 13 confirmed tornadoes from Hurricane Delta. Zeta led to tropical storm warnings in North Carolina and Virginia mountains. 
  • Atlantic Tropical Storms: This is continuing to be a very active Tropical Storm season with 28 named storms as of November 8. With less than a month remaining in the Atlantic hurricane season, the formation of Subtropical Storm Theta on November 10 over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean made the 2020 season the most active on record. The season officially ends on November 30.
  • ENSO (El Niño / Southern Oscillation): A La Niña advisory is in effect. The next update is November 12. La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~85% chance) and into spring 2021 (~60% chance during February-April).
  • Drought: No drought for the Southeast and U.S. Caribbean in October. A few pockets of abnormally dry conditions remain.
  • Looking ahead: Autumn will continue to be warm with the Southeast likely to be dry. Possible drought development in southern GA and northern FL.
Water Resources

  • Streamflow: River streamflow remains mostly above normal across the Southeast with only minor flooding in a few areas.
Agriculture Impact and Outlook

  • Continued wet and cloudy conditions are slowing the harvest of cotton and peanuts.
  • Hurricane Zeta brought rain and strong winds to the Southeast, resulting in crop losses, tree damage, and power outages.
  • TS Eta could cause additional impacts to Florida and the East Coast.
  • Lingering potential for tropical storm damage in 2020.
  • Looking ahead: La Nina has potential to affect spring planting due to dry soil, and a warm winter could mean more pests next spring.
Spotlight: 2020-2021 Winter Outlook

  • La Niña conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average from the west-central to eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical atmospheric circulation is consistent with La Niña.
  • Temperature: The greatest chances for warmer-than-normal conditions extend across the southern tier of the U.S. from the Southwest, across the Gulf states, and into the Southeast.
  • Precipitation: The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are predicted in the Southwest, across Texas, along the Gulf Coast, and in Florida. More modest chances for drier conditions are forecast in southern Alaska, and from California across the Rockies, Central Plains, and into the Southeast.
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available November 19.
  • Additional information and maps on NOAA’s Winter Outlooks that provide seasonal predictions for temperature, precipitation, and drought can be accessed online: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/2020-21-winter-outlook-leans-warm-and-dry-across-southern-us.
What happened over October: Southeast Temperature

October temperatures were above average, with above average minimum temperatures.
A look at temperature departures from normal across the Southeast in October. High Plains RCC.
What happened over October: Southeast Precipitation

Precipitation was variable across the Southeast region during October, with above average for western North Carolina, and below average for eastern Georgia and South Carolina.
A look at precipitation departures from normal across the Southeast in October. High Plains RCC.
Current Conditions: Drought

No current drought in the Southeast and the U.S. Caribbean. A few pockets of abnormally dry conditions remain.
Current U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Southeast. Maps are updated weekly. National Drought Mitigation Center.
Current Conditions: River Flood Status

Streamflows remain mostly above normal across the Southeast with only a few areas of minor flooding. More precipitation is expected in the coming week.
A look at current river flood conditions. NWS Southeast River Forecast Center.
Looking Ahead: Winter 2020 Outlooks

Winter 2020 U.S. Temperature Outlook. NWS Climate Prediction Center, map by Climate.gov.
Winter 2020 U.S. Precipitation Outlook. NWS Climate Prediction Center, map by Climate.gov.
Winter 2020 U.S. Drought Outlook. NWS Climate Prediction Center, map by Climate.gov.
Acknowledgments 

Speakers
  • Sandra Rayne, Southeast Regional Climate Center
  • Pam Knox, University of Georgia
  • Mike Halpert, NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center

Relevant Resources

Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC)
  
NWS Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC)
https://www.weather.gov/serfc/

Streamflow Monitoring & Forecasting
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov  

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) - U.S. Drought Portal

Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast - Blog

Hurricane Preparedness Resources

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)


For webinar-related questions or suggestions, please contact: 
Meredith Muth, meredith.f.muth@noaa.gov