ACF DEWS Webinar Recap
February 25, 2020
A Summary of Drought Conditions from the:

 Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin Drought Assessment Webinar
The ACF Basin contains D0 and D1 according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor  (as of 2/18/2020).  

Our next briefing will be Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 1 pm ET. 
The recorded webinar can be found here .
Current Drought Status
Approximately 0.29% of the ACF Basin is in D1 (Moderate Drought), and 5.58% is in D0 (Abnormally Dry) according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 2/18/2020).
94.13% of the ACF Basin is free of dry or drought conditions.
The Drought Paradox...
The Apalachicola River is almost entirely within a flood warning, while adjacent counties (Leon and Wakulla) are experiencing pockets of D2 and D3 and the Sopchoppy River streamflow levels are less than 10%. 
30-Day Rainfall Totals
The past 30 days have seen varying levels of rainfall in the ACF Basin, with the headwaters region receiving the most rainfall with 10-15 inches, much of the middle ACF receiving 8-10+ inches, and the lower ACF and the FL panhandle receiving 4-6 inches.
Real-time Streamflow
Streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the high to above normal range, with a majority of stations ranked in the normal range.

Flint River Near Carsonville
28-Day Average Streamflows
28-day average streamflow for Lake Lanier inflows are currently in the much above normal to record highs. The Chattahoochee at Cornelia and the Chestatee River near Dahlonega are experiencing new record high flows.

Further downstream, the Chattahoochee River at Atlanta, Whitesburg, West Point, and Columbus are currently in the much above normal range.

28-day average streamflows for the Flint River at griffin are currently much above normal. Flint River near Carsonville is experiencing a new record high (see above). The Flint River at Albany and Bainbridge are in the much above normal range.

28-day average streamflow for the Apalachicola River are currently in the much above normal range.
(for more info:  http://waterwatch.usgs.gov )
Real-Time Groundwater Conditions
Real-time groundwater levels across the ACF basin range from high to much below normal, with a majority of stations in the normal range. ( http://waterwatch.usgs.gov )
1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast
The 1-month mean daily streamflow forecast predicts above normal flow conditions. The 3-month mean daily streamflow forecast also predicts above normal flows throughout the ACF basin.
ACF Reservoir Conditions
(as of 2/24/2020) 

Inflows into all USACE ACF Basin projects are all above normal levels. Lanier, W.F. George, West Point, and Jim Woodruff are all operating above the guide curve. The ACF Basin Composite Conservation and Flood Storage is above the top of conservation line and is expected to remain above the top of conservation over the next few weeks.
Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
 
ACF Basin Precipitation and Climate Conditions and Outlooks

  • Flooding continues on the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers

  • Severe drought has been introduce just one county over in Florida’s Wakulla and Leon counties

  • Weekly to 30-day rainfall extensive over the upper and middle ACF, below normal over the Florida coast.

  • Pattern shift to bring colder temperatures and clearing to the area later this week

  • Neutral conditions in the Pacific, forecast to continue through winter. Forecast for summer transition are highly uncertain.

  • CPC seasonal forecast (Mar. – May) favors higher chances for warm temperature and above normal rainfall across the southern US

  • Only drought remaining is localized along the lower ACF coast, favorable forecast for the remainder of the basin


Real-Time Streamflow & Forecasts

  • Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the high to above normal range.

  • No portions of the ACF Basin are currently ranked as below normal flow for the 7-day average streamflow.

  • 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the much above normal range with new extremes recorded at Cornelia and Chestatee River near Dahlonega.

  • 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently above normal with a new extreme recorded at Carsonville.

  • Real-time groundwater levels across the ACF basin range from high to much below normal, with a majority of stations in the normal range.

  • 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Above Normal

  • 3 Month Streamflow forecast - Above Normal


ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions

  • Inflows into the projects are above normal.

  • Lanier, WF George, West Point, and Jim Woodruff are operating above guide curve.

  • Expect projects to approach guide curve over the next few weeks as summer refilling begins

  • The ACF system conservation storage is above to top of conservation and is forecasted to stay above the top of conservation for the next few weeks.


Acknowledgments 
 
Speakers

David Zierden, FSU
Paul Ankcorn, USGS
Jeff Dobur, SERFC

Additional Information Provided by:

Tom Littlepage, ADECA OWR
Troy Ephriam, USACE-Mobile District

Summary prepared by:
Rachel McGuire, Auburn University 

Resources

General Drought Information:

Drought Impact Reporter:

Southeast Climate Perspectives Map

General Climate and El Niño Information:
  
Streamflow Monitoring & Forecasting

Groundwater Monitoring
 
The Complete Set of Briefing Slides From the ACF River Basin Drought Webinar:

Additional Information From the Southeast River Forecast Center:
To join the ACF mailing list or for webinar-related questions, please contact: 

Rachel McGuire 
334 844 1163