ACF DEWS Webinar Recap
July 28, 2020
A Summary of Drought Conditions from the:

 Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin Drought Assessment Webinar
The ACF Basin contains areas of D0 and D1 according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor  (as of 7/30/2020).  

Our next briefing will be Tuesday, August 25, 2020 at 1 pm ET. 
The recorded webinar can be found here .
Current Drought Status
According to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 7/30/2020).
43.85% of the ACF Basin is in D0 (abnormally dry) and 0.69% is in D1 (Moderate Drought) conditions.
Lawn and Garden Moisture Index
July 27, 2020's Lawn and Garden Index from the University of Alabama at Huntsville displays increasing dryness throughout most of Georgia, as well as parts of Northeast, Central, and Southeast Alabama.
90-Day Rainfall Departures
The past 90 days have seen above normal rainfall across the Florida peninsula as well as parts of the FL panhandle. Further inland, Alabama and Georgia have seen near normal to up to 4 inches below normal rainfall totals.
NOAA Seasonal Outlook (Aug.-Oct.)
The NOAA 3-month Seasonal Outlook (Aug.-Oct.) predicts an increased chance of above normal temperatures for almost the entire US and an increased chance of above normal precipitation for the Southeast US.
Real-time Streamflow
Streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the normal to low range.
Chattahoochee River at Atlanta
28-Day Average Streamflows
28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the normal range.

28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the normal to normal range.

28-day average streamflow for the Apalachicola River are currently in the normal range.
(for more info:  http://waterwatch.usgs.gov )
Real-Time Groundwater Conditions
Real-time groundwater levels across the ACF basin range from much above normal to low, with the majority of stations in the normal range. ( http://waterwatch.usgs.gov )
ACF Reservoir Conditions
(as of 7/27/2020) 

Inflows into all USACE ACF Basin projects are normal. Lanier and West Point are operating above guide curve while W.F. George is operating in Zone 1, and official drawdown has begun for upstream repairs on the dam. The ACF Basin Composite Conservation and Flood Storage is in Zone 1 and is expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
1-Month & 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts
The 1-month mean daily streamflow forecast predicts near normal flow conditions.
The 3-month mean daily streamflow forecast predicts normal flows throughout the ACF basin.
Coastal Salinity Index
The Coastal Salinity Index (CSI) originated as a focus project of the Coastal Carolinas Drought Early Warning System (DEWS). Main motivations were to recognize salinity and reduced freshwater availability as key stressors during drought and to determine if a unique index could be developed to characterize coastal drought.

Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
 
ACF Basin Precipitation and Climate Conditions and Outlooks

  • Active start to hurricane season in numbers, ACE near normal.

  • Pockets of D0 (abnormally dry) starting to appear in SE Alabama, central Georgia, and West Florida coast.

  • Rainfall above normal across the FL Panhandle over the last 30 days, drier and scattered over inland Georgia and Alabama 

  • 90-day rainfall generally normal to above normal

  • 7-day forecast for heavy rain across Tennessee, Mississippi Valley. perhaps even the headwaters of the ACF. Lesser amounts and scattered the remainder of the basin.

  • ”La Nina Watch” now issued by NOAA, 55 percent chance by this fall

  • NOAA seasonal hurricane forecast strongly favors above normal activity

  • CPC seasonal forecast (Aug. – Oct.) favors higher chances for warm temperature and above normal rainfall across the southern US

  • ACF likely to remain mostly drought-free, but watch for pockets of quickly developing drought as fall approaches


Alabama Drought Status

  • Widely scattered rainfall has occurred and is being driven by both a normal seasonal pattern of weather as well as influence by tropical weather systems

  • This pattern is expected to continue with widely scattered showers

  • No reported drought or water availability issues

  • OWR continues to monitor conditions


Real-Time Streamflow & Forecasts

  • Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the normal to low range.

  • Lower portions of the ACF Basin are currently ranked as below normal flow for the 7-day average streamflow.

  • 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the normal range.

  • 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the normal range.

  • Real-time groundwater levels across the ACF basin range from much above normal to low, with the majority of stations in the normal range.

  • 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Normal

  • 3 Month Streamflow forecast - Normal


ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions

  • Inflows into the projects are normal.

  • Lanier and West Point are operating above guide curve.

  • WF George is operating in Zone 1, with official drawdown beginning for upstream dam repairs.

  • Expect projects to approach guide curve over the next few weeks.

  • The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.


Coastal Salinity Index (CSI)




Acknowledgments 
 
Speakers

David Zierden, FSU
Paul Ankcorn, USGS
Troy Ephriam, USACE-Mobile District
Jeff Dobur, SERFC
Kirsten Lacksrom, CISA
Matt Petkewich, USGS

Additional Information Provided by:

Tom Littlepage, ADECA OWR

Summary prepared by:

Rachel McGuire, Auburn University 

Resources

General Drought Information:

Drought Impact Reporter:

Southeast Climate Perspectives Map

General Climate and El Niño Information:
  
Streamflow Monitoring & Forecasting

Groundwater Monitoring
 
The Complete Set of Briefing Slides From the ACF River Basin Drought Webinar:

Additional Information From the Southeast River Forecast Center:
To join the ACF mailing list or for webinar-related questions,
please contact: 

Rachel McGuire 
334 844 1163