ACF DEWS Webinar Recap
September 22, 2020
A Summary of Drought Conditions from the:

Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin Drought Assessment Webinar
The ACF Basin contains areas of D0 according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 9/17/2020).  

Our next briefing will be Tuesday, October 27, 2020 at 1 pm ET. 
The recorded webinar can be found here.
Current Drought Status
According to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 9/17/2020).
7.2% of the ACF Basin is in D0 (abnormally dry).
Lawn and Garden Moisture Index
September 21, 2020's Lawn and Garden Index from the University of Alabama at Huntsville displays patches of dryness predominately in northern and western Alabama and extreme northwest Georgia.
7-Day Rainfall Totals
The past 7 days have seen heavy rainfall throughout much of the ACF Basin, especially the lower basin, as a result of Hurricane Sally. Parts of the Coastal Alabama and Northwest Florida received well over 10-15 inches of rainfall.
90-Day Rainfall Departures
The past 90 days rainfall departures are above normal for essentially the entire ACF Basin. Parts of the lower ACF Basin have received well over 8-16 inches above normal rainfall in the past 90 days.
NOAA Seasonal Outlook (Oct.)
The NOAA 1-month Seasonal Outlook (Oct.) predicts an increased chance of above normal precipitation for the upper half of the ACF Basin and an equal chance of above or below normal precipitation in the lower half of the ACF Basin.
Real-time Streamflow
Streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the high to much below normal range, with the majority of locations in the normal range.
Flint River at Carsonville
28-Day Average Streamflows
28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are in the normal to much above normal range, Flint River flows are in the above to much above normal range, and the Apalachicola River flows are in the much above normal range.
(for more info: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)
Real-Time Groundwater Conditions
Real-time groundwater levels across the ACF basin range from low to high, with most stations in the normal range.
ACF Reservoir Conditions
(as of 9/21/2020) 

Inflows into the projects are returning to normal following Tropical Storm Sally. The ACF Basin Composite Conservation and Flood Storage is in Zone 1 and is expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
1-Month & 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts
The 1-month mean daily streamflow forecast predicts near normal flow conditions.
The 3-month mean daily streamflow forecast predicts near normal flows throughout the ACF basin.
Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
 
ACF Basin Precipitation and Climate Conditions and Outlooks

  • 2020 hurricane season continues at a record pace

  • Small pockets of D0 (abnormally dry) appear and disappear over the tri-state area

  • Rainfall now above normal at all time scales out to 90 days

  • 7-day forecast for heavy rain (3-5 inches) across northern Alabama and Georgia with remnants of TS Beta

  • ”La Nina Advisory” now issued by NOAA, 80 percent chance through fall, onset of dry pattern variable from year to year

  • NOAA seasonal hurricane forecast strongly favors above normal activity

  • CPC 1-month forecast favors above normal rainfall in the lower ACF, 3-month forecast shows equal chances

  • ACF likely to remain mostly drought-free in the short term, but watch for the onset of dry pattern


Alabama Drought Status

  • Hurricane Sally made a significant impact on many areas of Alabama with historic rainfall and widespread flooding

  • Will be assessing potential future impacts from La Nina conditions

  • No reported water availability issues

  • OWR continues to monitor conditions

Real-Time Streamflow & Forecasts

  • Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the high to much below normal range.

  • The ACF basin is currently ranked as normal flow for the 7-day average streamflow.

  • 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the normal to much above normal range.

  • 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the above normal to much above normal range.

  • Real-time groundwater levels across the ACF basin range from low to high, with most stations in the normal range.

  • 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Normal

  • 3 Month Streamflow forecast - Normal


ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions

  • Inflows into the projects are returning normal following Tropical Storm Sally.

  • Lanier and West Point are operating slightly above guide curve. 

  • WFGeorge drawn down to elevation 186 feet for upstream repairs on dam until November 1.

  • Expect projects to approach guide curve over the next few weeks.

  • The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.


Acknowledgments 
 
Speakers

David Zierden, FSU
Tom Littlepage, ADECA OWR
Paul Ankcorn, USGS
Troy Ephriam, USACE-Mobile District
Jeff Dobur, SERFC


Summary prepared by:

Rachel McGuire, Auburn University 

Resources

General Drought Information:

Drought Impact Reporter:

Southeast Climate Perspectives Map

General Climate and El Niño Information:
  
Streamflow Monitoring & Forecasting

Groundwater Monitoring
 
The Complete Set of Briefing Slides From the ACF River Basin Drought Webinar:

Additional Information From the Southeast River Forecast Center:
To join the ACF mailing list or for webinar-related questions,
please contact: 

Rachel McGuire 
334 844 1163