A Summary of Drought Conditions:
from the
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
Drought Assessment Webinar 
on Sep tember 10, 2019
 

Auburn University Water Resources Center 

and the 

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)


 
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The ACF basin contains D0, D1, and D2 according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor 
(as of 9/3/2019).  
Our next briefing will be Tuesday, October 8, 2019 at 1 pm ET. 
Current Drought Status
Approximately 0 .30% of the ACF Basin is in D2 (Severe Drought), an additional 6.51% is in D1 (Moderate Drought) and an additional 16 .62 % of the ACF Basin in D0 (Abnormally Dry) according to the most current
U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 9/3/2019).  The area of drought is predominately in eastern Alabama, particularly in the southeastern corner, central Georgia, and northernmost portions of the Florida panhandle.
Rainfall Totals Over the Past 7 Days
        
Rainfall totals over the past 7 days throughout the ACF basin are minimal, ranging from 0 to under 1 inch in most locations and localized areas up to 2 inches.

Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook - Precipitation 
According to the most recent NOAA 3-Month Precipitation Probability Outlook, the CPC Seasonal Forecast (Sep. - Nov.) predicts an equal chance in the ACF Basin for above-normal, normal, or below-normal precipitation through November.
        
Real-Time Streamflow
   

Real-time streamflows in the ACF basin are currently in the normal range in the upper basin and dryer in the lower basin.  ( http://waterwatch.usgs.gov )
Chattahoochee River near West Point
28-Day Average Streamflows

28-day average streamflows for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the normal to below normal range.

28-day average flows for the Flint River continue to decrease, but remain in the below normal range.

28-day average flows for the Apalachicola River are currently in the below normal range.

(for more info:  http://waterwatch.usgs.gov )

Real-time Groundwater Conditions
             Previous Brief:                                 Current Brief:
       
          
Real-time groundwater levels range from above normal to low across the ACF Basin.
 ( http://waterwatch.usgs.gov )

One Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast
 
The 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast from the Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) predicts below normal flows throughout the ACF Basin.

 The 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast from the SERFC predicts an equal chance for below normal, near normal, or above normal flows throughout the ACF Basin.


U.S. Army Corps of Engineers ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions 
(as of 9/9/2019) 

Inflows into all USACE ACF basin projects have fallen. Lanier, West Point, and W.F. George are below the guide curve, but are continuing to meet downstream minimum flow requirements. The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
 
ACF Basin Precipitation and Climate Conditions and Outlooks
 
  • No direct impacts from hurricane Dorian, indirect impacts include hot, dry airmass
  • Pockets of moderate drought improving in lower ACF, developing in middle and upper basin
  • Near record heat in North Florida, approaching two weeks with mostly no rainfall across much of the ACF.
  • Climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season, tropical system to increase rain chances in the lower ACF this weekend.
  • Neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific, likely to persist through NH winter
  • CPC seasonal forecast (July - Sept) favors higher chances for warm temperature across the US, equal chances for rainfall
  • Pockets of drought likely to persist as we enter the fall dry season

ACF Basin Streamflow and Groundwater Level Conditions

 

  • Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the normal range in the upper basin, dryer in lower basin.
  • Hydrologic drought conditions have increased across Georgia and Alabama.
  • 28-day average streamflow in the Chattahoochee River are currently in the normal to below normal range.
  • 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River continue to decrease, but remain in the below normal range.
  • Real-time groundwater levels range from above normal to low across the ACF Basin.
 

 

Streamflow Forecasts
  • The Southeast River Forecast Center's 1-Month Streamflow Forecast predicts below normal for the entire ACF Basin.
  • The Southeast River Forecast Center's 3-Month Streamflow Forecast predicts equal chances of below normal, near normal, and above normal flows for the entire ACF Basin. 
  • *Note: stream flow forecast pie charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC, or other factors, but are based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions
  • Inflows into the projects have fallen.
  • Lanier, West Point and WF George are below guide curve.
     
  • Continuing to meet downstream minimum flow requirements.
  • The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.
     
Acknowledgments and Resources:
  • David Zierden, FSU
  • Paul Ankcorn, USGS
  • Jeffrey Dobur, SERFC
  • Cynthia Donald, USACE
Summary prepared by Rachel McGuire, Auburn University 
 
General Drought Information:

General Climate and El NiƱo Information:

Streamflow Monitoring & Forecasting
  
Groundwater Monitoring

The Complete Set of Briefing Slides From the ACF River Basin Drought Webinar:

Additional Information From the Southeast River Forecast Center: