Week InReview
Friday | Aug 5, 2022
Recession recedes.
The odds of a recession in the US are tumbling, if a JPMorgan trading model is to be believed. With the exception of base metals, pricing of major markets suggest even odds, or less, after the US economy shrank for a second straight quarter. The S&P 500 implies a 51% probability of recession — down from 91% two months ago. But not everyone is convinced the worst is over. Here’s why the five gloomiest forecasters in a Bloomberg survey expect the US economy to keep shrinking

See also:
(Bloomberg Markets - Economics | Aug 1)
let's recap...
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange as a screen shows Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell during a news conference following a Fed rate announcement, in New York City, U.S., July 27, 2022. Photo: Brendan McDermid | Reuters
A roaring rebound in U.S. corporate bonds is being met with skepticism by some investors, who believe the gains may be short-lived as recession fears dampen the outlook for the $10 trillion market. (Reuters | Aug 3) see also Junk bond market is signaling the US will avoid a recession (Bloomberg Markets | Aug 3)

The US Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday published a staff bulletin that seeks to clarify how broker dealers and investment advisors must address conflicts of interest when providing advice and recommendations to investors. The guidance aims to spell out expectations amid industry "misconceptions," an SEC official told reporters, adding that while all financial firms and professionals have some conflict, the "nature and expense" of those conflicts can vary. (Reuters | Aug 3)

The inversion of the Treasury yield curve deepened Wednesday as the market proved volatile once again, with yields surging on the back of increased confidence about the prospect of Federal Reserve hiking interest rates and then tumbling anew before the day was out. The gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields shifted to a fresh extreme, with the longer rate dropping to be as much as 38 basis below the longer benchmark. That level on the widely watched yield curve metric, seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession, hasn’t been seen since 2000. (Bloomberg Markets | Aug 3)

The immediate market impact of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan may be fading, but it has left fund managers rethinking how to navigate the fraying relations between the world’s two largest economies. From an accelerated US-China decoupling to an additional pressure point for fragile supply chains or speculation over whether Beijing might weaponize its vast holding of Treasuries, investors have been outlining how the US House Speaker’s trip may have a long-term market impact. (BNN Bloomberg - Canada | Aug 3)

Several Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday signaled the US central bank was committed to its aggressive fight against soaring prices, prompting a jump in short-dated Treasury yields as investors priced in more interest rate rises. (Financial Times | Aug 2)
the cyber cafe
Photographer: Michael Nagle | Bloomberg
Hackers’ identities are unmasked by controversial Twitter feed
Nothing is more important to a cybercriminal than their anonymity. It’s the shield that protects them from facing the consequences of their actions, like being held liable for the damage they caused or arrested and extradited to a foreign country. So when an anonymous Twitter account began tweeting the real names, addresses, and passport photos of alleged members of notorious Russian hacking groups, cybersecurity researchers took notice.
— Bloomberg

Cybersecurity agencies reveal last year’s top malware strains
The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) released a list of the topmost detected malware strains last year in a joint advisory with the Australian Cyber Security Centre (ACSC). Some of these strains have been used in attacks for at least the last five years, while two of them have been used for more than a decade.

FCC warns Americans about rising phishing attacks
The Federal Communications Commission published an alert warning that there has been an increase in text messages with phishing lures attempting to steal personal data and money. Complaints to the FCC about unwanted text messages have steadily risen, the agency said. Phishing baits refer to claims about unpaid bills, package deliveries, law enforcement actions, and bank account problems.
binge reading disorder
Illustration: Simon Bailly | FT
The ‘natural wine’ wars end here
For a small but significant subsector of the hospitality industry, “low intervention” or “natural” wines have become a hill worth dying on. We should, of course, all be able to get along with exciting new wines and lovely old ones, but, like everything else, one is forced against one’s will to take sides.

If you're worried about the economy, here's what you can do
Inflation is at or near its highest level in decades and a second-quarter decline in gross domestic product has stoked recession fears among some corporate chiefs, economists and Americans. Consumers are feeling the punch of rising prices and some job seekers are questioning how tight the labor market really is. Here are some things you can do if you’re worried about a recession.

Technology alone won’t solve your organizational challenges
Misalignment and dysfunction arise when three fundamental building blocks of organized activity are not taken seriously: teams, meetings, and communication. Each element is interrelated and highly complementary. For example, a high-functioning team is inherently better at communication and more productive during meetings. In other words, deficiency in one area can derail the others.