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TUESDAY, JANUARY 21, 2025

#FROM THE DIRECTOR'S DESK#

Refugee Scapegoating is North Africa’s Troubling ‘New’ Trend

ARAB NEWS — North Africa's trend of scapegoating refugees amid internal crises demonstrates a troubling shift influenced by European border policies. The region, a key transit point for sub-Saharan migrants heading to Europe, faces increased pressure to manage immigration, straining limited local resources and redirecting public discontent towards vulnerable populations. This scapegoating masks deeper systemic issues like corruption, unemployment, and poor public services, heightening societal division and human suffering without addressing root causes. European financial aid aimed at controlling migration often supports regimes with poor human rights records, compounding local corruption and instability. This dynamic not only perpetuates economic and social distress but also stifles meaningful reform, creating a cycle where the blame on refugees and migrants prevents genuine solutions to structural problems.

Wary of Its Own Islamists, Egypt Adopts Cautious Approach to Syria

AL-MONITOR — Egypt, wary of its domestic Islamist factions, has adopted a cautious approach to the Syrian conflict. This strategy signals lingering concerns about the influence of Islamist groups within the region. Egypt's policy reflects a balance between addressing regional stability and managing its internal security dynamics. The measured stance aims to maintain domestic control while contributing to broader geopolitical stability in the Middle East. This approach also signals Egypt's intent to navigate complex regional alliances without exacerbating internal tensions.

Tunisia’s Revolution 14 Years On: ‘The Emperor Has No Clothes’

AL JAZEERA — Fourteen years after Tunisia's revolution, the initial aspirations for democracy and dignity remain largely unfulfilled. Following the ousting of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011, the Arab Spring fueled widespread hopes for political freedom across the region. However, many of these revolutionary gains were quickly reversed, leading to the resurgence of authoritarianism in several countries. Economic disparities and political polarization have persisted, undermining the foundations of democratic progress and causing widespread disillusionment among citizens. Despite setbacks to full democratic transformation, the revolutions have irrevocably altered state-society relations, exposing the entrenched nature of authoritarian rulers.

Tunisia: Drastic Closure of Civic Space

HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH — The Tunisian government has intensified its repression of dissenting voices and cracked down on civil society groups, particularly around the October presidential election. Authorities made last-minute changes to electoral laws and detained over 80 individuals on political grounds, including activists, lawyers, journalists, and social media users. Security forces have also continued to abuse migrants, asylum seekers, and refugees with impunity. Despite the persisting economic crisis and public discontent, the government has shown little regard for human rights, prompting calls for international pressure to promote freedoms and cease abusive migration controls.

Tunisia's Gas Crisis and Disruptions Put Homes and Businesses on Ice

THE NEW ARAB — Tunisia faces a severe gas crisis, with only one-third of populated areas connected to natural gas lines, leaving many reliant on gas cylinders. This shortage has grave implications, as demand exceeds supply, especially in cold regions where temperatures dip below freezing. Supply chain disruptions have left the market short by 25,000 cylinders daily, escalating tensions as citizens wait for hours to secure gas. The government's inability to effectively manage resources is exacerbated by economic instability and rising inflation. President Saied's strained relations with international financial institutions have further complicated financial solutions, increasing public dissatisfaction with his economic approach.

Egypt: Repression, Rising Poverty in Sisi’s Second Decade

HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH — Under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's second decade in power, Egypt has seen widespread repression and systematic punishment of peaceful critics and activists. The severe economic crisis has exacerbated poverty, with skyrocketing prices and decreasing access to food and electricity, despite $57 billion in grants and loans in 2024. The government's focus on opaque military-led infrastructure projects has undermined economic, social, and cultural rights. Arbitrary detentions, prosecutions, and draconian restrictions on NGOs continue to stifle dissent and advocacy. Calls for transparency and reforms persist as international bodies urge Egypt to improve its human rights record.

Head of Libya's National Oil Corporation Resigns

REUTERS — Farhat Bengdara, head of Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC), resigned due to health issues, leading to the appointment of Masoud Sulaiman as acting chief. This change comes as Bengdara faced a need for urgent back surgery, having submitted his resignation three times within a year. The Government of National Unity's Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah accepted the resignation and will form a new board of directors in the next cabinet meeting. The NOC oversees oil and gas production in Libya, the third-largest oil producer in North Africa. Since the 2011 uprising, Libya's oil sector has faced disruptions from groups using blockades for political and material demands.

Morocco and the Central African Republic Seek to Strengthen Military Ties

MIDDLE EAST MONITOR — Morocco and the Central African Republic are working to strengthen military cooperation, highlighted by a meeting between General Mohammed Berrid of Morocco’s Royal Armed Forces and General Zephirin Mamadou of the Central African Armed Forces. The discussions in Rabat focused on enhancing bilateral military collaboration, particularly in training initiatives and exchange programs. Both sides expressed satisfaction with the current state of military cooperation. General Mamadou commended Morocco's significant contribution to the UN peacekeeping efforts in the Central African Republic through MINUSCA, where Morocco has deployed 750 soldiers since 2014.

Trump’s State Department Pick Marco Rubio Lays Out Vision for Africa

THE AFRICA REPORT — During his confirmation hearing, Marco Rubio, Trump's pick for Secretary of State, highlighted the incoming administration's priorities for Africa. Rubio emphasized countering China's influence and increasing investment in fossil fuels across the continent. These points outline a strategic shift in US-Africa relations, aiming to enhance economic engagements and geopolitical positioning over the next four years. The administration's approach signals a focused effort to address both economic and strategic interests in Africa.

OLAF and Mauritania Deepen Cooperation in the Fight against Fraud

OLAF — The European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) and Mauritania's Inspection Générale d'État (IGE) have enhanced their cooperation to combat fraud and smuggling through a comprehensive two-phase training program. The training focused on improving risk analysis techniques, customs risk profiles, and operational synergies among national administrations. It also stressed the importance of enhanced communication, information sharing, and intelligence exchange. This effort is part of a broader strategy under the Administrative Cooperation Agreement to bolster international collaboration and operational efficiency in tackling cross-border illicit activities.

Libya Seeks $3–$4 Billion For Oil Production Boost, Plans Licence Bidding Round

OFFSHORE TECHNOLOGY — Libya aims to secure $3 to $4 billion in investments to boost its oil production capabilities, targeting a rate of 1.6 million barrels per day, with aspirations to eventually reach 2 million barrels per day. Currently, Libya produces 1.4 million barrels per day. The economy is heavily reliant on oil, which constitutes over 95% of its economic output. A new licence bidding round, including 15 to 21 blocks across three basins, is expected to receive cabinet approval soon. This marks the first bidding round in 17 years, addressing the fact that 70% of Libya’s land and over 65% of its waters remain unexplored.

Morocco May Land First Arab F-35 Deal as Trump Returns to Office

AVIATION WEEK — Morocco is poised to become the first Arab nation to acquire U.S.-made F-35 stealth fighter jets, with plans to secure 32 aircraft at an estimated $17 billion over 45 years. This move aims to modernize the Royal Moroccan Air Force, currently reliant on fourth-generation F-16 jets, amid regional tensions with Algeria. Algeria's acquisition of Russian Su-57 jets likely influenced Morocco's decision, amidst a broader regional arms race. Interest in the F-35 aligns with Morocco's strategy to strengthen defense capabilities in partnership with the United States and Israel, including the purchase of other advanced military equipment. However, this development could affect the military balance, diplomatic relations and ongoing tensions in North Africa.

Chinese Automaker Geely Begins Production of Two Models in Egypt

XINHUA — Chinese automaker Geely Auto Group commenced production of two models, Coolray and Emgrand, at its first completely-knocked-down (CKD) plant in Egypt located in the 6th of October City, Giza Province. The facility aims for an annual production capacity of approximately 30,000 units over the next three years. This initiative marks a significant step in bolstering Egypt's industrial sector, particularly the automotive industry. The local assembly of these models is expected to enhance supply chain efficiency and provide an improved driving experience for Egyptian consumers.

Italy, Germany, Austria, Tunisia, and Algeria Back Hydrogen Grid Project

FUEL CELLS WORKS — Italy, Germany, Austria, Tunisia, and Algeria have announced their support for a new hydrogen grid project, aiming to enhance energy cooperation and sustainability. This initiative reflects a growing commitment to renewable energy infrastructure in the region, leveraging hydrogen as a clean energy source. The project highlights a strategic collaboration likely to stimulate technological innovation and economic growth. By investing in hydrogen, these countries strive to decrease reliance on fossil fuels, contributing to reduced carbon emissions. This collective effort potentially sets a precedent for transnational energy solutions in addressing climate change challenges.

#TRANSLATED#

From Wagner to Africa Corps: In Mali, the Putschists are Playing Russian Roulette

JEUNE AFRIQUE — Amidst growing political instability in Mali, tensions rise as the private military group Wagner faces potential replacement by Africa Corps, following its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin's fallout with the Kremlin. Approximately 80 Africa Corps members, referred to as "precursors", have already arrived in Bamako. The current contract between the Malian state and Wagner expires in February, with renewal prospects uncertain due to recent tactical failures and deteriorating relations with Mali's ruling junta led by Assimi Goïta. This shift could intensify local unrest as Wagner resists the transition, heightening uncertainty in the already volatile region.

SPECIAL FOCUS

THE NORTH AFRICA INITIATIVE & SAIS REVIEW THE LOOKING GLASS PODCAST

#New Episode #

The Libya Chronicles: A Nation in Flux

Catch the newest episode of The Looking Glass' "The Libya Chronicles: A Nation in Flux" — part of the first Maghreb Voices Mini Series dedicated to Libya, a collaboration between the SAIS Review of International Affairs and the North Africa Initiative at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).

This episode dives into Libya’s rich yet tumultuous history, from ancient kingdoms to the transformation of society under Gaddafi and beyond. Joining us is Stephanie Turco Williams, nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy and former special adviser on Libya to the UN Secretary-General.

Stephanie shares her expertise on Libya’s social and economic shifts, informed by her extensive career, including roles as acting special representative for Libya and deputy special representative to the United Nations as well as 24 years in the U.S. Foreign Service focusing on the Middle East.

Stay tuned for her insights on Libya’s challenges, opportunities, and the global impact of its transformation.

You can listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.



INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH & STUDIES ON THE MEDITERRANEAN & MIDDLE EAST (IReMMO) | SEMINAR SESSIONS

#ONGOING EVENT#

Geopolitics of Natural Resources in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

JANUARY 9TH — MARCH 13TH, 2025 | THURSDAYS — 6:30 PM to 8:30 PM

Join IReMMO for an insightful seminar to explore the geopolitical underpinnings of natural resource management that crystallize power games and rivalries in the Mediterranean region and the Middle East. This issue has been central to the political, economic and social upheavals and the political making of identities and states in this region since the mid-20th century. Such seminar sessions will provide an opportunity to explore these different dynamics in greater depth and offer keys to better understand power strategies in light of food, agricultural, energy and water issues.

PERSPECTIVES

ATLANTIC COUNCIL

How the Gaza War Brought Morocco and Israel Closer

The Gaza war, contrary to expectations, strengthened the Moroccan-Israeli alliance initiated by the 2020 tripartite agreement. Despite public appearances aligning with pro-Palestinian sentiment, Morocco's security collaboration with Israel has deepened. This partnership is driven by shared concerns over Iranian expansion, particularly its support for the Polisario Front in Western Sahara. Morocco has actively bolstered its defense capabilities with Israeli technology, including Heron drones and SkyLock Dome systems, amid increased Iranian military intervention in the region. The alliance is further solidified by historic and cultural connections, with significant Moroccan Jewish ancestry within Israel. Economic ties have also grown, with bilateral trade seeing a substantial increase. This convergence of strategic interests and historical bonds suggests the relationship will endure, despite domestic opposition.





WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY (WINEP)

EU-Morocco Relations: Stuck Between Law and Politics?

The Court of Justice of the European Union annulled EU-Morocco trade agreements involving Western Sahara, adding legal complexities to the political and economic ties between the entities. This ruling has highlighted the growing acceptance of Morocco's 2007 autonomy plan by key EU member states like Spain and France, despite the historical backing of the Polisario Front. The decision risks pushing Morocco towards China and Russia, both of which have shown increasing interest in the region's resources. The U.S., having recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara under the Trump administration, may now find opportunities to expand investment, though substantial EU trade relations could limit this. Resolving the diplomatic deadlock necessitates UN-led negotiations and clearer trade agreements that consider Western Sahara's local consultation requirements.

THE ECONOMIST

The Economic Gap between Africa and the Rest of the World is Growing

The economic gap between Africa and the rest of the world is widening despite significant social advancements. Life expectancy across the continent has notably improved, university attendance among young Africans has surged, and African cultural achievements are gaining global recognition. However, African economies lag significantly, with GDP per capita now only a quarter of the global average, down from half in 1960. Various factors, including demographic shifts, urbanization, and technological advancements, bring profound social changes, yet fail to translate into economic progress. African economies saw a brief period of growth in the early 21st century but have generally underperformed, and by 2030, Africans are projected to constitute over 80% of the world's poor. Challenges such as sluggish productivity growth, inadequate job creation, and vulnerabilities to climate change exacerbate this economic stagnation. High macroeconomic imbalances and limited access to financing hinder prospects for recovery.

THE ECONOMIST

The Capitalist Revolution Africa Needs

Africa's demographic expansion, set to represent 21% of the global population by the next decade, positions the continent as a critical labor source for an aging world. To capitalize on this opportunity, African nations must pivot from past practices and widespread statism, embracing capitalism, business growth, and free markets. Despite notable cultural gains and some bright economic spots like Ivory Coast and Rwanda, the continent faces declining productivity, inadequate infrastructure, and fragmented markets. With income per capita now only 25% of global levels and large nations like Nigeria and South Africa underperforming, African economies are failing to progress. Leaders need to foster a pro-growth attitude akin to past successes in East Asia and modern India, emphasizing infrastructure development, market integration, and private sector dynamism. A substantial increase in the scale and efficiency of enterprises is essential to attract substantial global investment. Should the current trajectory continue, Africa risks further deepening poverty and exacerbating global instability.

AN AFRICANIST PERSPECTIVE

Africa in 2025

By 2025, several African nations will continue their post-COVID economic recovery, with 44 economies growing faster than the global average. Côte d'Ivoire, Tanzania, Senegal, Benin, and Rwanda will be key performers, driven by diverse sectors such as agriculture, hydrocarbons, and infrastructure. Tanzania will lead Eastern Africa economically, while Senegal's emerging hydrocarbon sector aims to triple per capita income. Ethiopia's liberalization efforts, including a new stock exchange and foreign investment in banking, signify profound economic reforms. Despite these advancements, elevated exchange rate risks, fiscal consolidation backlash, and geopolitical tensions in the Horn of Africa, particularly Sudan's civil war and potential US recognition of Somaliland, pose significant challenges.

WORLD BANK

Tunisia: Targeted Programs Match Higher Education Graduates with Quality Jobs

Tunisia’s Tertiary Education for Employability Project has significantly improved job prospects for over 22,000 students by aligning academic programs with market demands. With more than 600 Quality Support Projects (PAQs) implemented, the initiative has introduced over 40 industry-linked degree programs and established performance-based funding for public universities. The 4C career and certification centers have facilitated immediate job placements, internships, and higher starting salaries for graduates. Specialized programs, such as those at ISET Sousse, achieve nearly 100% employment rates by partnering with industrial firms.

PROJECTS, REPORTS & PUBLICATIONS

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND | WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK | REPORT



Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain

Global growth is projected at 3.3% for 2025 and 2026, slightly below the historical average. Inflation is expected to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, with advanced economies returning to target sooner than emerging markets. Medium-term risks remain downside, while short-term risks vary, with robust US growth facing upside risks. Effective policy is crucial to balancing inflation, real activity, and fostering long-term growth through structural reforms and international cooperation.

ENERGY CENTRAL | REPORT



Green Hydrogen Market in North Africa with Forecast to 2050

Hydrogen holds strategic importance in the push for sustainable energy, and North Africa is well-positioned to capitalize on this due to its proximity to Europe, a growing market for green hydrogen. The region can efficiently transport hydrogen to Europe, fostering economic growth and energy partnerships. North Africa benefits from a skilled workforce and supportive policies aligned with Europe's sustainability goals, setting the stage for a thriving hydrogen ecosystem. This report explores the opportunities and challenges in North Africa's hydrogen potential for stakeholders and policymakers.

BROOKINGS | AFRICA GROWTH INITIATIVE | REPORT



Foresight Africa 2025-2030

Explore "Foresight Africa 2025-2030," a special edition of the Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings' annual report. As Africa approaches critical milestones—the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, the modernization of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, and the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area—this report provides essential insights. It addresses the continent's unique challenges amid climate crises, conflict, and global instability, and highlights opportunities for growth.

RECRUITMENT & TENDERS

UN Environment Programme | Programme Management Officer

UNEP is seeking a Programme Management Officer to support implementation of its work relating to Disasters and Conflicts in the Mediterranean Basin, Middle East, and Central Asia regions, with a particular focus on supporting transboundary cooperation on ecosystems protection and climate adaptation. This position is located in the Disasters and Conflicts Branch, UNEP Ecosystems Division at the Athens (Greece) Duty Station.

APPLY BEFORE: FEBRUARY 14, 2025

#TENDER#

OECD | Egypt In-Country Experts (Non-Staff Consultants)

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is launching a Call for Tenders to source three individuals, non-staff consultants, based in Egypt to work and contribute to the project: “Promoting Citizen-centred Governance in Egypt”. This call for tenders is divided into 3 lots: Senior Justice Expert; Senior Regulatory Policy Expert, and; Youth Empowerment Expert. Interested candidates should register here in order to access the associated documents and further information.

APPLY BEFORE: FEBRUARY 19, 2025

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Stay ahead.

See the latest analyses and posts by FPI Senior Fellow & Executive Director of The North Africa Initiative (NAI)

Hafed Al-Ghwell

Also, catch Hafed's latest and other columns in Arab News.

You can contact the North Africa Initiative (NAI) by emailing:

Lana Bleik

Senior Research Program Coordinator 

The Maghreb Weekly is produced by the North Africa Initiative of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute with a focus on developments that impact the region's dynamics. This weekly digest includes an overview of the latest published research, studies and reports from think tanks and policy centers, covering long-term perspectives and analyses of North Africa's challenges and opportunities.