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Welcome to the Newsletter of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung's Regional Center on Peace and Security

On January 3, U.S. troops attacked Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife to be brought to trial in New York. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez assumed the acting presidency. The U.S. announced its intention to control the country's politics and economy, especially oil, in three phases: stabilization, recovery, and transition. UN Secretary-General António Guterres was deeply concerned about the precedent of violating international law through the use of force.

Changes began to take place immediately, such as the lifting of sanctions on oil and the gradual restoration of diplomatic relations. Prisoners were released, and an Amnesty Law was passed. Various actions were taken to fulfill “Trump's vision for Venezuela's oil.”

Professor Juan Tokatlián interprets these events as an example of the establishment of a neo-protectorate, which is part of an aggressive strategy to recover and consolidate Latin America as a sphere of exclusionary influence and a testing ground for the use of force. What has happened in Venezuela has regional dimensions and geopolitical consequences that are examined in this dialogue organized by CIDOB.

Sandra Borda analyzes the genesis of the U.S. offensive toward the Caribbean and assesses the weight of ideology and the drug trafficking issue. This expansionist policy has internal dimensions (expanding the limits of presidential power) and external dimensions (intensifying regional and global conflicts). The gaze also turns northward to Canada, the Arctic, and Greenland. All are components of the chessboard that shapes U.S. security and the geopolitics of great powers dividing up the world, as indicated in its National Security Strategy.

A global perspective reveals aggressiveness toward Latin America, friendliness toward China, and a focus on Iran as Trump's defense strategy in early 2026.

Military attacks on targets designated as narcoterrorists in the Caribbean follow a logic that the U.S. has applied for more than two decades in the war on terror: targeted killings of individuals designated as terrorists in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, or Somalia, above and beyond the rules of armed conflict. Concurrently, the indefinite and unlawful detention of prisoners at Guantanamo Bay sets a precedent for today's detentions and deportations. Protests against ICE in various locations across the United States, such as those recently held in Minneapolis, employ nonviolent action strategies commonly used in war zones to protect communities.

Among other actors, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) considers that the U.S., with its actions in Venezuela and threats against Greenland, is drifting away from international law and order, replacing it with a policy of spheres of influence for major powers. In line with this, the current German government, like its predecessor, has emphasized the need to rebuild its army, a position that SPD parliamentarian Rolf Mützenich questions, given that a democratic foreign policy should not be limited to military force but should be based on rules, institutions, and cooperation.

According to this analysis, international security suffered a serious deterioration in 2025. In 2026, problems surrounding the nuclear threat, hybrid warfare, the use of commercial interdependence as a tool of threat and warfare, and developments in space security will become more acute. Here we can explore the main issues to follow. CIDOB examines the ten issues that will shape the international agenda now that Trumpism has ushered in a new era in the instrumentalization of economic and technological coercion based on the law of the strongest.

Meanwhile, Antonio de Aguiar Patriota, Brazil's ambassador to the United Kingdom, takes the 2025 report from the Munich Security Conference to reflect on multipolarity, the need for a humanist perspective on the international system, and what form this might take. The most recent Munich conference was held a few weeks ago, and this is its latest report.



Faced with this situation and drastic increases in military spending, Chris Coulter, director of the Berghof Foundation (Berlin), argues that real security depends on discreet, long-term work in conflict prevention and mediation. In response to those who argue that we are heading toward a world without rules, the only option, as Professor Joaquim Bisbal explains, is to defend the rule of law, strengthen international courts, and protect democracy.

The collection Las múltiples caras de la seguridad en América Latina (The Multiple Faces of Security in Latin America), coordinated by Mariano Aguirre Ernst, compiles articles written for the first 21 issues of this newsletter published by the FES Regional Center on Peace and Security, as well as other texts published by the FES. Topics include the conceptualization of security, its different interpretations, and how inclusive and sustainable security could be built, among others. It also raises the notion of common security, a form of détente for Europe during the Cold War that, if adapted, could be applied in Latin America.

In the field of alternatives, civil participation in defense policy is key to implementing government guidelines and adopting conceptual innovations in thinking about security during policy formulation. This text explores the experiences of Brazil and Chile.

The crisis faced by Latin American democracies is not solely due to political and institutional factors or to populism and polarization, but also to deeper factors, including organized crime. Its expansion is creating challenges that are now evident even in the most stable countries, such as Costa Rica, Chile, and Uruguay. The impact is also visible in the economies.

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), and the FES have organized a forum to discuss the impact of organized crime on economic dynamics. Illegal economies are embedded in the region's territorial, institutional, and market dynamics and require comprehensive responses grounded in empirical evidence and in economic, social, institutional, and international cooperation instruments.

A particular aspect of this issue is the role of women in organized crime, which has been considered secondary. However, the study on the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC, Brazil) and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG, Mexico) shows notable participation of women in leadership and middle-ranking positions.

Toughening of the U.S. stance toward Cuba and the blockade of oil shipments is pushing the island into a very serious situation. Cuba has long relied on oil supplies from Venezuela, its main regional ally, and on smaller shipments from Mexico.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, pointed out that the energy blockade constitutes a human rights violation, preventing the population from accessing drinking water and sanitation and jeopardizing the functioning of hospitals. Chris Sabatini, from Chatham House, recalled that this confrontation is long-standing and purely ideological, and wondered how far the Trump administration is willing to go. Various sources indicate that the Trump administration is in talks with the grandson of Raúl Castro, the former president of the Cuban Council of State, so that, in the face of the tightening blockade and the threat of the use of force, reforms can begin.



For U.S. Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the collective punishment imposed on Gaza set a precedent that is now being applied through a blockade on the Cuban population. The suffocation of Cuba could create tensions between the U.S. and Russia, should Vladimir Putin's government decide to send oil and other goods to the island. Moscow has criticized the suffocation policy but has not explained whether it will take action.

For an in-depth understanding of the current conditions on the island and to hear the voices of Cubans, La Jornada (Mexico) has published a series of reportages entitled “Las calles de Cuba” (Cuba’s Streets) which show how living conditions are becoming increasingly harsh.

Presidents Gustavo Petro and Donald Trump met this past February 3 in Washington, D.C., after a year of verbal exchanges and threats that brought relations between Colombia and the U.S. to the brink of rupture. They did not reach any decisive agreements, but they did show signs of détente.

Gimena Sánchez-Garzoli, from WOLA, points out that several key issues remain unresolved, such as attacks on “narco boats,” Colombia's decertification, and the restoration of U.S. cooperation. Either these issues are handled effectively through diplomatic channels, she says, or tensions will continue. The conversation addressed possible joint operations with the Colombian and Venezuelan armies to pressure the ELN along the border between the two countries, an idea that the Ideas for Peace Foundation (FIP) describes as appealing but questionable.

The ELN's situation in post-Maduro Venezuela and on the Colombian border is uncertain. The Colombian Minister of Defense stated that Venezuela is advancing operations in the border area. This pushes combatants back into Colombia, allowing the country to take action. Another analysis points to the ELN's strength and control on that border. It suggests that the group feels capable of challenging the Colombian state's authority and the U.S.'s ambitions in Venezuela.

This year, presidential elections will be held in Colombia. The candidates with the highest ratings in the latest polls are Senator Iván Cepeda of the Pacto Histórico party, and Abelardo de la Espriella, whom Americas Quarterly argues could be Colombia's Bukele. Former Finance Minister José Antonio Ocampo, who served in Petro's government, has edited a collective volume on what Colombia needs in the next four years.

A phenomenon that has been understudied but is present in potential negotiations with the ELN and other armed organizations is the recruitment of minors by armed and criminal groups. According to the International Crisis Group, more must be done to prevent recruitment, prosecute those who recruit children, and support them in their recovery. This matter was also discussed at this seminar.



The multimedia series Vivir sin miedo: un derecho pendiente en Ecuador (Living without fear: a pending right in Ecuador) reflects on the impact of violence and possible alternatives. In four episodes, it addresses how violence became part of everyday life, the role of strong states in combating organized crime, childcare as part of the fight against crime, and the role of local governments as essential actors in the search for responses beyond an iron fist approach.

A meeting between Chatham House and Global Canada on Haiti brought together local and international experts to discuss a roadmap for security. The report on recommendations outlines essential steps and priorities, drawing on the country's previous experience and examples from the Maghreb and the Middle East.

Ever since democracy was restored in Argentina in 1983, policies on memory, truth, and justice have been created and upheld by governments of different parties and ideological leanings, as well as by the three branches of government. It was an arduous and collective process, recognized worldwide. Today, these policies are under siege by Javier Milei's government as part of his culture war.

In Mexico, more than 133,000 people are missing. Thousands of women trawl through mass graves and public offices trying to find their children, faced with indifference from the state and a lack of answers from different governments. This article documents the work of the searching mothers.

In Costa Rica, Nicaraguan exiles live in fear for their safety. The assassination in Costa Rica of Roberto Samcam, a former Sandinista official and critic of the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, demonstrated that the government's repressive action reaches the neighboring country.

The government of President Rodrigo Paz Pereira in Bolivia has radically changed its economic and natural resource management agenda through Decree 5503, which establishes emergency economic measures. At the moment, it appears to be in a strong position, but a resurgence of the nationalist movement over natural resources cannot be ruled out.

The PEACEptions project infographics show the pillars of peace in six countries and how security, human rights, and conflict transformation institutions come together to determine where peace holds and where it frays.

The Western origins of peace and conflict studies have shaped how the dynamics of violence are understood in Africa, Latin America, and Asia. In this volume, academics from the Global North and South seek an inclusive agenda that is more rooted in the realities and contexts of the Global South. Sabine Kurtenbach and Angelika Rettberg analyze war economies and their implications for peace.

The achievements and challenges of the international human rights regime are the protagonists of the 100th issue of the Cuadernos Deusto de Derechos Humanos series. This text assesses the situation of defenders since the UN adopted the Declaration on Human Rights Defenders in 1998.

The connections between climate change, conflict, and forced displacement are creating new challenges of protection. The School for a Culture of Peace (ECP) explores the complexity of these links with cases such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, the Western Sahel, Palestine, and the Philippines. It identifies challenges for international protection (in Catalan).

Mediation and negotiation are complex tools for resolving violent conflicts. The authors of this book explore the biases that can affect the mediator.

• The British organization ABColombia compiles articles and reports on human rights, defenders, indigenous peoples, and displacement, among other issues, in its newsletter. To subscribe, use this link.
• The newsletter Latin America Daily Briefing publishes analysis and compiles current publications on Latin America. More information and subscriptions here.
• FLACSO Ecuador's Peace and Conflict Lab has a new web page.

Newsletter of the Regional Center on Peace and Security

Edited by Mariano Aguirre Ernst and Mabel González Bustelo

Translated by Yenni Castro (Valestra Editorial)

More information: Maria Alejandra Rico (MariaAlejandra.Rico@fes.de)

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