In this month's Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar, we'll discuss current conditions and the Colorado River Science Wiki, a web-based resource for scientific and technical information. Presenters will also provide a regular drought and climate update along with perspectives on these conditions from the California and Nevada state climatologists.

The California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (CA-NV DEWS) January 2024 Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar is part of a series of regular drought and climate outlook webinars designed to provide stakeholders and other interested parties in the region with timely information on current drought status and impacts, as well as a preview of current and developing climatic events (i.e., El Niño and La Niña). 

Featured Presentations

Drought and Climate Update

Daniel McEvoy | Western Regional Climate Center, DRI

Drought and Climate Outlook

Julie Kalansky | California-Nevada Adaptation Program, Scripps Institute of Oceanography/University of California San Diego

State Climatologist Perspectives on Current Conditions

Michael Anderson | California State Climatologist, California Department of Water Resources

Tom Albright | Nevada State Climatologist (interim), University of Nevada Reno

Introduction to the Colorado River Science Wiki

Tanya Petach | Aspen Global Change Institute

For additional information contact Amanda Sheffield, NOAA/NIDIS.

News

California Department of Water Resources: First Snow Survey of the Season Finds Below Average Conditions

After one of the largest snowpacks on record last season, the start of this water year has been dry despite some recent storms in the last weeks of December that provided a small boost in the snowpack. The Department of Water Resources conducted the first snow survey of the season at Phillips Station on January 2. The manual survey recorded 7.5 inches of snow depth and a snow water equivalent of 3 inches, which is 30 percent of average for this location. Statewide the snowpack is 25 percent of average for this date. Learn more >

2024 Begins with Record Low Snow Conditions Across the West—But Help is on the Way

Snow water equivalent (SWE) is below normal across nearly the entire western U.S. as snow drought conditions have worsened in most regions over the past month. Dry and warm conditions have caused much of this snow drought, with the most severe snow drought conditions in the Northern Rocky Mountains. 

In early January, SWE observations at SNOTEL stations in Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, California, Oregon, and Washington were at record low values. The highest concentration of record low SWE is in the northern Rocky Mountains across Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho. Storms over the next week will improve conditions in the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, but will likely not completely erase existing deficits. Learn more >

Understanding Water Supply Forecast Error on the Colorado River

Seasonal Colorado River water supply forecasts made by agencies like the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center and the National Resources Conservation Service use data from high-elevation Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations, offering water managers insight into how much water to expect each year. These forecasts allow for less uncertainty and better management of downstream reservoirs. However, 2020 and 2021 were low water supply years, much lower than one would expect based on snowpack values alone. Researchers from the Colorado Climate Center questioned whether very low, if not record low, soil moisture levels at high elevation were causing a smaller fraction of snowmelt to runoff than in a normal year. “On the Sources of Water Supply Forecast Error in Western Colorado” is the result of a research project funded by NOAA's NIDIS to explore this question. Results indicate that a much larger fraction of the error is attributable to the weather that occurs after April 1. Learn more >