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January is historically slow in real estate, but not this year. Buyers are chomping at the bit. Based on how active it has been, my bet is we are in for an intense Spring Market 2022. I'm trying to take my kids away in February as I believe come March I'm going under for a while.

We have a very interesting mix of dynamics going on as we press into 2022. Interest rates are on a slow rise (which can affect buying power), eviction and foreclosure moratoriums expired on January 15th in a state with the highest number of renters in the nation. I'm concerned what life may translate to for some renters. As far as foreclosures are concerned, New York is a judicial state that can take up to six years to process a foreclosure so I do not see a tsunami of foreclosures entering the market near term. More likely near term will be sellers in threat of foreclosure opting to sell in a sellers market.

We live in a world of wildcards, any of which can impact real estate. Housing inventory levels are still at historic lows which hit bottom in May, 2021 and have been hovering at 30% below the last recorded historic low of May 2004 since. Another record year in real estate in 2021 with still unfulfilled buyer demand carrying over into 2022. January was a roller coaster month on Wall Street. Talks of Inflation. Winter uprising in Covid. For now, we appear in a "wildcard state of suspension" while buyer demand presses on with continued inventory shortage.

Enter Spring Market 2022. Definite seat belt needed for this ride.

The housing market 2020 to date has been all about supply and demand. While closed sales for single family detached were down 40% YTD December, 2021 vs same period 2020, this correlates directly to the inventory plummet that ended the year in December at 54% below December, 2020. The demand for single family attached (townhomes, condos, etc.) rose to a new high in 2021 with the year ending up 78.8% in dollar volume and 55% increase in closed transactions over 2020 per Mid Hudson MLS.

With inventory low and demand still high, it is anticipated that the market will continue to see multiple offer situations on properties priced well, marketed effectively and check coveted boxes. To name a few coveted boxes: classic country home; particularly historic, quiet country road yet accessible, pool site, in or nearby a walkable town/village.

Buyers, try to keep this word fresh in your minds:

P A T I E N C E

When a new listing hits the market that is priced well and effectively marketed, the chance of a multiple offer situation is high. This is not to suggest abandoning the monitor of new listings, but I have gotten more than a few buyers properties at asking, if not significantly below, throughout the Covid market by sharing search attention with housings that are sitting, rather than selling.

The property pictured as "sold" was purchased by my buyer clients for $89,000 UNDER asking just last month. Sitting listings can be golden. Buyers often assume there is something wrong with the property if it's been sitting in such a heated market and take a pass on seeing. This can lower competition. The houses sitting quietly in the sidelines prove solid pricing and effective marketing matter in any market condition.

I'm constantly prowling sitting listings for my buyer clients. If a desired property can be found among the "sitters," there can be multiple level benefit. First, the overall experience goes from crazed to relaxed. The driveway doesn't resemble a drive in as is the case most often with a new listing. Buyers can breathe and appropriately consider the property. The opportunity to negotiate increases, which I invite for the benefit of my buyer clients. The vacant sitting home can be a double score as that is a pure running expense. Winter is generally the most expensive season to run a home. Vacant homeowners trying to sell during the winter months have the potential to be that much more negotiable than an occupied home. My listings are known to fly off the shelf, so if it's one of my listings, forget the "sitting home" strategy. lol

Inventory shortages exist in the below $400,000 range throughout most towns. However, based on 2021 closed sales per the Mid-Hudson multiple listing service, a buyer with under $400,000 in Dutchess County will find the most options in: Amenia, Dover, East Fishkill, Hyde Park, City and Town of Poughkeepsie, Pleasant Valley and Wappingers.

Rhinebeck realized the highest increase in houses sold above $1,000,000 by a whooping 78% in 2021 versus 2020 with 49 homes sold above $1M versus 28 in 2020. To share perspective, 2019 was considered a more "normal" market and saw 5 sales above $1,000,000 in the Town and Village of Rhinebeck. The only other price range with an increase in units sold in Rhinebeck was $750,000-$800,000 at 43% over 2020. Other than that, Rhinebeck is in an inventory squeeze across all other price points with a year end down 9% overall in closed sales versus 2020.

The $1,000,000+ price point appears to be introducing itself to East Fishkill. Only one sale above $1,000,000 closed in that town in the four years between 2016-2020, per Mid Hudson multiple listing service. As of this writing, East Fishkill had 2 closed sales $1,000,000+ in 2021 along with two currently active and two contract listings.

The Town of Washington takes the lead for highest percentage increase in overall houses sold year over year at 22%. Fishkill is runner up with 21% increase in overall units sold. The Town of Poughkeepsie had an overall increase of 20% in units sold, which tied with Beacon.

Pine Plains was hit the hardest with decrease in sales 2021 versus 2020 at -43%. Other towns in the negative include Milan (-19%), Northeast and Millerton (-29%), Pawling (-5%), Clinton (-18%), Unionvale (-5%), Stanford (-17%), Red Hook (-15%) and Rhinebeck (-9%). This is due to inventory shortage. The Town of Beekman had no percentage change with 2020 in overall sales, but did see increases between 6-188% in the $350,000-$750,000 price points.

The two top luxury sales in Dutchess County were a tie in 2021 between the Town of Washington and the Town of Rhinebeck at $7,000,000 each. Click here to see the listings. Three luxury sales in 2020 topped 2021. The top sale of 2020 goes to Red Hook (Rhinebeck PO) for $16,500,000. Click here to see the three top luxury sales of 2020.

Berkshire Hathaway did a very nice job with the Q4 market reports. Click here for Dutchess County

The buyers of 2020 were driven primarily by fear with purchases that tended to be more reactionary to circumstance than driven by contemplated choice. The following year saw buyers with more time to reflect on their lifestyle and home/remote work productivity levels. 2021 marked a year with buyers opting for a country life not out of fear but out of a thoughtfully altered lifestyle choice.

While inventory levels plummeted in attempt to meet demand, aversion to overpricing grew in 2021. The overpriced properties added to the housing shortage by sitting rather than selling. Buyers tired of the emotional roller coaster of multiple offers and some would pass on homes rather than bid in that climate. I predict more locals will join the market in 2022. The overall buyer pool in 2022 is expected to have that much more aversion to over pricing and bidding wars. While multiple offers are likely still on the horizon, patience has grown with buyers. The demand for plateau in pricing has increased.

Buyers have tired of over pricing and will most often opt to walk from an over priced listing. It is a stronger position to have choice between buyers for the best terms and price versus negotiating down with a singular buyer. I have set records with my clients sales. The high returns I have yielded for my clients were not accomplished with over pricing, but rather solid pricing and effective marketing.

Just last week I walked away from a $1.2 million dollar listing that was also slated to be a $2 million dollar purchase. Over $3 million dollars in transactions. The seller was insistent on over pricing by a noticeable margin. I don't subscribe to "just get the listing and then reduce." I have a roster of buyer and seller clients that I work hard for. If I fill my bucket with over priced listings and buyers that aren't in a position to buy, I would spread myself too thin and not be able to provide the level of service my clients have come to expect and deserve. So, yes, I looked this seller/buyer in the eyes and said "I'm not your agent."

The house I mentioned in the October issue that I priced in the low to mid $600's went on the market with another realtor at $875,000 during the summer. By the time of the October issue, the home had reduced into the $700's and was still sitting. Now it has expired. Over pricing is simply not a productive strategy, even in this market.

This transaction is professional fulfillment at its best. Read on for why...

Once a bustling winery and vineyard, time stood still at the 1790 Dutch barn for the past four years. Extensive restoration and repair were needed. There was also a substantial amount of debris in and around the barn. The classic beams gracing cathedral ceilings and stone foundation at the front of the barn were in excellent condition for the most part. This mixed with other historic detail and relics added value. There was reward for the willing.

The 32 acres encompassing the property includes the Plattekill Brook, which is a full sensory pleasure and well positioned on the property. The vineyards stopped begging for mercy several years prior after multiple winter freezes. There would be real expense to remove the deep rooted vines.

Much thought and consideration went into appropriately pricing the property. In addition to other research, I gathered a great deal of documentation from County and Town offices to aid in pricing and supply information to buyers to enable thoughtful offer submissions, which I have found most often translates to solid offers.

Online, social media and traditional marketing channels were all fully leveraged out of the gate. The Brick hosted a property feature which was picked up by the press with a full feature article in Times Union. See the full article here. Marketing was in full force from Day 1, as is the plan for my listings.

During historically the slowest time of year in real estate, I accompanied over 40 showings through the holidays. My clients agreed to provide a three week "consideration window" for buyers to have appropriate time to digest the property while also factoring the holidays as there was much to consider. We had multiple offers over asking with the ultimate accepted offer likely setting a record in Ulster County (add that to the one I already set in Dutchess - woohoo!). This is another example that buyers don't need to be put in a "give me an offer from the kitchen table" frenzy in order to do right by your seller clients.

The kicker: This historic barn is slated to be restored to full glory with life brought back to the vineyard. The historic barn was at risk for demolition as there were no preservation requirements and a very real commitment in time and finances to restore. During showings, I heard the full gamut of visions from buyers. Some included visions with the barn, some not. The soon to be owners are committed to restoration. Cheers!

I represented the buyers and sellers in this transaction. Click here to see full listing. Link to video tour of the property is located under photos.

My two Dutchess County records still stand along with the record below. Highest percentage over ask in Dutchess County. Listed for $489,000. Sold for 43% over asking at $700,000 cash. See this record setting listing here. The second record is highest sale in the City of Poughkeepsie in over 15 years. Take a two minute tour of this beautiful 1930 manor home.

Wishing a happy and healthy 2022 to all. I appreciate your trust in referrals. Should you be interested in selling, buyers are chomping at the bit! We are experiencing many more buyers in the market than usual for this time of year with highly limited homes available for sale. Rather than wait for Spring competition, you may want to consider leveraging the market in the now. Reach out for sound pricing and marketing counsel. Over forty showings through the holidays at my vineyard listing shows buyers are out.