Volume 18, Issue 35

September 10, 2021

All eyes are on Arkansas this week, as there has been little activity in the global markets. It appears that Hurricane Ida spared the Arkansas crop, but the same cannot be said for some grain facilities in Louisiana. Damage assessments are still coming in, but there is more infrastructure damage than crop damage, and initial total damage estimates are being floated in the $80 billion range at this point. Yield expectations coming out of Arkansas have been optimistic for several weeks now, and that sentiment is strengthening as the first harvesters are in the field. There is talk of this being a record crop for Arkansas; time will tell. Early milling yields have been very inconsistent to date.

The USDA is now showing the 2020/21 carryover at 31.8 million cwt, and an average farm price of $12.60/cwt. In the most recent report, the 2021/22 stocks are showing a 5 million cwt drop down to 23.9 million cwt from 28.8 million cwt last month. There is an average farm price of $12.90. With Haitian business returning largely through NGO buyers, and the steady Iraq business, the foreseeable future provides for a firm market moving through harvest with the significant reduction in 2021/22 stocks.

In Asia, man-power (or lack thereof) and port congestion rule the day. Viet prices have bumped to just over $400 per metric ton, and exports are tracking in relative similarity to last year. This is more than Thai prices simply because there is the availability to load vessels and ship rice. Thai prices have stalled around $385 per metric ton, and the country is having trouble loading vessels that are scheduled for delivery around Christmas time. Overall loadings are down significantly year-over-year, as discussed last week in the review of the freight markets since 2020. Prices in India are in the $380-385 per metric ton as well, with shipments somehow continuing to defy the slow-down seen elsewhere.

The USDA export sales report, delayed due to the Labor Day holiday, shows net sales of 34,000 metric tons. Those sales were primary to Costa Rica (22,000 MT), Honduras (5,500 MT), Saudi Arabia (2,800 MT), Canada (2,200 MT), and Hong Kong (900 MT). Net exports clocked in at 28,900 MT, and were primarily to Japan (12,000 MT), Mexico (7,700 MT), Saudi Arabia (3,900 MT), Canada (2,400 MT), and the Dominican Republic (1,900 MT).

The futures market remains in a sideways to downtrend. With old crop contracts coming to an end, it could put some pressure in the short term, but with a solid supply situation and steady demand, there are no significant reactions at hand.

Reconciliation rolls on!

The House Agriculture Committee has scheduled a mark-up to consider a proposal to satisfy the Agriculture Committee’s reconciliation instructions required by S. Con. Res. 14 on Friday, September 10^th at 1:00 pm - view here. The agriculture portion of the partisan Reconciliation bill is intended to implement President Biden’s Build Back Better $3.5 trillion agenda. The legislation has been “pre-conferenced” by the House and Senate Agriculture Committees so little change is expected during the markup on Friday.

The Reconciliation bill proposal is intended to address the following areas:

Statutory language implementing the proposals may be found here.

There is a $35 billion difference in House and Senate Agriculture Committees due to the differences in jurisdiction concerning child nutrition programs which the House Education and Labor Committee will consider Thursday, September 9^th.

Passage of the $3.5 trillion reconciliation proposal is uncertain. Currently, moderate House Democrats have been expressing their dissatisfaction with the proposal and Senator Joe Manchin D-WV is rumored to support only $1.5 trillion in spending.  Coupled with the end of the month vote on the bipartisan infrastructure package and Democratic policy disagreements, the path forward for the reconciliation proposal is rocky.

The Missouri Rice Research & Merchandising Council’s Annual Field Day, originally scheduled in-person for August 19, 2021, is now available virtually. Watch the videos below for a glimpse of this year’s program, including an introduction from new staff member Mollie Buckler, and a presentation on water resources from Professor Michael Aide from Southeast Missouri State University. Visit the Virtual Field Day page on missouririce.com for the complete program of research updates, market updates, and more. 

Hamilton Road field, Biggs. PCA and CCA credits are available. Bring your boots for this hands-on course – event details and registration

The 84th International Rice Festival: The rice festival will return to Crowley, Louisiana, after being canceled last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Feb. 20-24, 2022

2022 Rice Technical Working Group: Hot Springs Convention Center in Hot Springs, Arkansas.

The University of Arkansas is hosting this biannual meeting — event information

Mar. 4, 2022

34th Annual Arkansas Agricultural Hall of Fame Induction Luncheon: Embassy Suites, Little Rock, Arkansas – event details and tickets (RESCHEDULED)