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November 13, 2022
Key Takeaways:
- Democrats lost fewer seats in the House of Representatives than any Democratic president’s first midterm election in at least 40 years, driven not by inflation but by concerns about democracy, abortion, and especially for Jewish voters, antisemitism running rampant in the Republican Party.
- But because the Democrats started with slim majorities, they will retain a slim majority in the Senate (essential for confirming judges) and probably will lose their majority in the House, setting the stage for GOP obstruction and shenanigans.
- Democrats should abolish the debt ceiling and reform the Electoral Count Act in the lame duck session.
- Democrats won 74% of the vote in the midterms.
- 76% of Jewish voters believe that Donald Trump and his allies in the Republican Party are responsible for a rise in antisemitism
- 72% of Jewish voters, and 90% of Jewish Democrats, disapprove of AIPAC's decision to back election deniers (AIPAC backed 109 insurrectionists).
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Hi Steve,
The American people have spoken: Democrats lost fewer seats in the House of Representatives than any Democratic president’s first midterm election in at least 40 years (people have wandered in the desert that long). Tuesday's election was nothing like Trump's midterm election, when the Republicans lost 41 seats or Obama's first or second midterms, when Democrats lost 63 and 13 seats.
Defending democracy, protecting the right to abortion, and standing up against antisemitism and racism is good politics. Democratic messaging resonated with voters. Or do you think that it's the economy after all and voters understand the truth about inflation?
The GOP's agenda is tax breaks for the wealthy and corporate deregulation. But since they can't win with 1% of the vote, they campaign on racism, hatred, xenophobia, and white Christian supremacy in the hopes of persuading victims of their policies not to blame Republicans, but to blame others--Jews, Blacks, immigrants--for their problems. And if that still leaves them a few votes short well, the heck with democracy: Disenfranchise voters, dispute the results, storm the Capitol, vote to overturn a free and fair election--do whatever it takes to stay in power.
We can never take democracy for granted. Tom Zimmer reminds us that there has never been consensus in America on how much democracy and for whom, the question being whether America is "defined by the idea of egalitarian democracy – or imagined as a land of and for white Christians, never allowing democracy to undermine that order." As Zimmer demonstrates, the Republican Party has chosen the latter vision.
President Biden said on November 3 that "the remarkable thing about American democracy is this: Just enough of us, on just enough occasions, have chosen not to dismantle democracy but to preserve democracy. We must choose that path again."
Once again, just enough of us voted for democracy. But despite outperforming expectations, Democrats will have only a slim Senate majority and will probably lose the House by a few seats. David Graham writes that "Kevin McCarthy, the likely next speaker of the House, has shown that he is a Trump sycophant. Election deniers won up and down the ballot across the country, and they could wreak havoc. But the midterm shows that many Americans are not just aware of the threat to democracy, but ready to vote based on it."
Some Republicans who acquiesced to or supported Trump from the time Trump won the GOP nomination in 2016 until last Tuesday will crawl out from under their rocks and question whether Dear Leader should be their 2024 nominee, but if Trump decides to run he'll win the nomination and the rest of the party will fall into line. (GOP primaries are decided by voters who refused to wear a mask to protect themselves from a potentially deadly airborne respiratory disease--these are not high information voters). Trump was not a fluke. He said the quiet parts of the GOP's ideology out loud, and GOP voters ate it up.
Get ready for two years of Republican obstruction and shenanigans. Unless the Democrats abolish the debt ceiling during the lame duck session, House Republicans will again use it to threaten the health of our economy and society. Unless Congress fixes the 135 year-old Electoral Count Act, Republicans could again attempt to overturn the presidential election in 2024--and might get luckier. Greg Sargent's 5 ways to ‘crazyproof’ the country against the chaos of a GOP House should be read by every Democratic member of Congress and staff.
It could have been a lot worse on Tuesday. But because it wasn't better, it will be a hard two years, and we must continue to defend democracy and speak up for our vision of America. The good news--the great news--is that the midterms proved that persuasion remains possible and that at least just enough Americans think our way of life is worth defending.
Jewish voters supported Democrats in the midterms--and opposed AIPAC's backing of insurrectionists. A poll conducted by GBAO Strategies found that 74% of Jews voted Democratic in the midterms. The key issues driving the Jewish vote were the issues you've been reading about in this newsletter: democracy, abortion, and antisemitism. 76% of Jewish voters believe that Donald Trump and his allies in the Republican Party are responsible for a rise in antisemitism, consistent with previous polling showing that Jews are far more concerned about antisemitism from the right than the left.
Unlike exit polls such as the Fox News exit poll that do not ask the range of critical Jewish demographic questions (such as denomination and synagogue membership) that are necessary to ensure a representative sample, the GBAO survey is a detailed and thorough assessment that reflects the demographic composition of the Jewish population as extensively examined by the Pew Research Center.
It is not surprising, given Jewish concerns about democracy, that 72% of Jewish voters disapprove of AIPAC's decision to back candidates they deem pro-Israel but who voted against certifying the 2020 presidential election on January 6, 2021. Among Jewish Democrats, the percentage rises to 90% disapproval, about as close to unanimity in that group as you'll get on any issue.
AIPAC's decision to back Republican election deniers is indefensible. If AIPAC's "single issue" forces them to support enemies of American democracy then they need to redefine their issue. AIPAC is not practicing bipartisanship. By normalizing what should never be normal or acceptable, by endorsing 109 Republicans who attempted to overturn a free and fair election, AIPAC gave the GOP its hechsher instead of deeming insurrection treif. That's the epitome of partisanship and it helps neither Israel nor America.
As Rabbi John Rosove wrote, "an organization that claims to care about a democratic Jewish state in Israel cannot in good faith endorse candidates for office who undermine American democracy."
AIPAC spent millions of dollars failing to defeat Pennsylvania Democrat Summer Lee in the primary--and then in the general election over the objections of Pennsylvania Jewish leaders, including the Democratic candidate AIPAC backed against Lee in the primary.
Control of the House could come down to one seat, but when AIPAC was accused of taking sides on which party would control the House, an AIPAC spokesperson said “One race in a Democratic district in Pittsburgh is not going to determine control of the House.” Narrator: One race just might determine control of the House. But it is true that one race in a Democratic district in Pittsburgh is not going to determine support for Israel in Congress or the Democratic Party.
Imagine if AIPAC's Super PAC had spent that money where it might have made a difference, defending Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA), who is great on AIPAC's issues and who lost 52%-48%. Or defending other pro-Israel Democrats in close races. You'd think they would have, if only to claim balance. There were plenty of close races where they could have put money behind the friendly incumbent rule.
Imagine if their Super PAC had spent millions of dollars backing Adam Frisch, a moderate pro-Israel Democrat who will barely win or lose to Lauren Boebert. Imagine if their Super PAC had spent the kind of money it spent in Summer Lee's race to help a Democrat defeat a Republican. It's easy if you try. And it's easier--and more effective--to support Israel if you support the version of America that represents the best values of both countries.
Last Week's Newsletter.
ICYMI. Hasidic rabbi assails Trumpism rampant among the Orthodox.
Tweets of the Week. Jo and Dylan Williams.
Twitter Thread of the Week. Shai Franklin.
Video Clip of the Week. Jewish people are dedicated to their religion.
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