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Research Perspectives

January 23, 2017

Christopher Sidoni of Gibson Capital presents our next CE-eligible APViewpoint webinar, Tools for Collaborative Portfolio Design, on Thursday, January 26 at 4:15 pm ET. Not an APViewpoint member? Join today.

Can the Trump Administration Make the American Economy Great Again?

Trump’s tax and infrastructure proposals will soon face the reality of US debt and monetary policy. We analyze what to expect next.

Rare Signatures

The key to drawing useful information out of noisy data is to rely on multiple “sensors.” Alone, each sensor may capture only a small portion of the true signal, and may not be greatly useful in and of itself. The power comes when the sensors are used together in order to distinguish the common signal of interest from the surrounding noise.

Why Trump’s 4% GDP Will Remain Elusive

For the umpteenth year in a row, mainstream economists and analysts are once again planting the seeds of hope for a return to stronger GDP growth. The White House has hoped for it for the last 8-years, and now President-elect Trump is all but promising a surge in economic growth.

On My Radar: Thought — Word — and Action

Donald J. Trump was sworn in as the 45th President of the United States. President Trump steps to center stage. Bring us jobs, bring us tax reform and bring us a grand fiscal infrastructure spend. That would be positive.

Caveat Investor? The “Fiduciary Rule” and Unintended Consequences

Who could argue with an advisor having to act in the best interest of his or her client? Well, I’m indeed going to argue that it’s at least less obvious than it first appears. Even if the rule turns out to be a net positive, I’m going to argue that there are potential large unintended consequences to worry about. This is not a screed against such a rule.

World Trade has Increased by Less Than 1% Annually Since 7/07

There are fears that the world is on the precipice of turning back the clock on globalization. In some ways, the case can be made globalization has been retreating since the financial crisis. One of the strongest supporting data points of that argument is world trade data.

Saving Retirement

We have often written that when everyone is asking the same question, it is usually the wrong question. However, I have also found the converse to be quite true – if no one is asking a question, it is probably one that you want to at least ask yourself just in case.

Hangovers and Roadmaps

2016 began with a thud and ended with a bang. After one of the worst-ever starts to a year, U.S. stocks managed to rebound and ultimately finish the year with solid gains.

American Carnage?

A memorable part of President Trump's inaugural speech pointed to mothers and children trapped in poverty, rusted-out factories, a flawed school system, and crime and gangs and drugs. He described these problems as "American carnage" and stated emphatically that it "stops right here and stops right now."

Animal Spirits – Real or Ephemeral?

Investors would have done well in 2016 to heed the words of Heraclitus, paraphrased: “Expect the unexpected.” Brexit and the U.S. election results were two glaring examples of the unexpected becoming reality.

Asian Fixed Income Can Ride the Trump Effect

Donald Trump’s policies appear almost certain to contribute to volatility in Asian markets during 2017. For active fixed-income investors who understand the dynamics of bonds and currencies in the region, this creates opportunities.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Policy Uncertainty Increase Stock Volatility?

We have a normal calendar for economic data. There will be important news will come from corporate earnings reports. Since this earnings season is part of an inflection point – the end of the earnings recession– it is special.

7 Unusual Lessons from 20 Years of Investment Failures

In this 3-part series I detail 7 expensive lessons I paid for at the University of Wall Street. I use my investment due diligence process as a narrative and have altered the names, dates and places to protect the innocent (and not so innocent).

  Yesterday’s Commentaries:

What I Learned in Washington DC

“America Works… Never Bet Against America”

Cash to Chips, Bricks to Clicks

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