Researchers, Practitioners Collaborate to Advance How We Understand Flash Drought
Flash drought, a rapid intensification drought event that leads to significant impacts, is an area of emerging research. A new report highlights how we can better study, plan for, and manage flash drought.
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Flash droughts are a phenomenon unique from longer term droughts. These droughts are characterized by rapidly intensifying drought conditions that require a different approach to monitoring, prediction, and planning than traditional, slow-moving drought.
In response to this need, NIDIS and its partners recently released a report that captures takeaways from the 2023 National Flash Drought Workshop, where researchers and practitioners from local, state, tribal, and federal agencies gathered to address the unique problems created by flash drought from national, regional, and sectoral perspectives. This report captures the key takeaways from the sessions at the workshop; the gaps, needs, and opportunities identified at the workshop; and a list of priorities moving forward for flash drought research and decision making. These priorities are a focal point for the flash drought community to effectively respond to and mitigate drought impacts. Key recommendations call for better communication of flash drought risk, additional tools and data to monitor and predict flash drought, increased reporting of flash drought impacts, and improved planning for and response to flash drought.
This report is the second report to emerge from the Flash Drought Initiative, an effort among NIDIS and key partners to identify and advance outstanding research and information needs related to flash drought, following a report on the 2020 Flash Drought Workshop.
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NOAA Forecasters: Low Flow Conditions May Return to the Mississippi River Later This Year | |
NOAA forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict drought is likely to persist through spring in parts of the Southwest, Northern Rockies, and Upper Midwest and Plains. After a record warm winter and a lack of snow and rain in the Midwest, low flow conditions may return to main stem rivers in the Greater Mississippi River Basin later this year.
“This is the first Spring Outlook since 2021 with no population expected to be impacted by major flooding," said Ed Clark, director of NOAA’s National Water Center. “Of growing concern will be the potentially low flows on the Mississippi River this summer into fall due to well-below snowpack and precipitation in most of the Northern Plains and Midwest. This could have potential impacts on those navigation and commercial interests that depend on water from the Mississippi River.”
For April through June, above-average temperatures are likely to persist across much of the United States. The greatest chance for above-average temperatures is in the Great Lakes region, the Pacific Northwest, and Northwest Alaska, though most of the continental U.S. and Alaska have elevated odds of above-average temperatures. Precipitation is slightly favored to be above average in portions of the central Plains, the southeastern US, and in southern Alaska. Parts of the Pacific Northwest and Southwest, meanwhile, are most likely to see precipitation below the seasonal average. Learn more >
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Flash Drought Research: Where Will It Go Next? | Recent research has shown that since 2000, 10% of drought events in North America were considered flash drought events, and approximately 37-42% of flash droughts persist to become long-term droughts. A recent review of the state of flash drought science includes a brief history of flash drought definitions, primary drivers of flash drought development, global climatological characteristics, subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting and climate change projections for flash drought, and relevant social science research. This study also identifies critical areas for flash drought research. Working together on these topics, researchers and stakeholders can build resilience to flash drought in a changing climate. Learn more > | |
Climate Engine Releases New Tool to Monitor Drought on Public Lands | |
Climate Engine, with support from NIDIS, is partnering with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to guide drought planning on BLM-managed lands. Climate Engine allows users to create maps and time series plots for visualizing complex climate data. Climate Engine recently launched a new publicly accessible platform designed to produce comprehensive and detailed reports for all Bureau of Land Management–managed lands in the contiguous United States. The reports combine scalable drought summaries and near real-time vegetation conditions to help inform planning and decision making. This information will build drought resilience on public lands.
Learn more >
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FEATURED MAPS + DATA
Using EDDI as a Flash Drought Indicator
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The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool that examines evaporative demand, or the “thirst of the atmosphere.” Using percentile categories, EDDI shows how unusual atmospheric evaporative demand is for a given location and across different timescales, offering early warning of agricultural drought, hydrologic drought, and fire-weather risk. A particular strength of EDDI is in capturing the precursor signals of water stress at weekly to monthly timescales, which makes EDDI a strong tool for preparedness for both rapidly evolving flash droughts and sustained droughts.
The image below, valid March 13, shows that evaporative demand has been high in the Midwest and Northeastern U.S., contributing to increased dryness in areas that are not receiving sufficient precipitation.
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Follow NIDIS on Instagram for Drought Updates | |
NIDIS recently launched an Instagram account. Instagram users can follow NIDIS at @NOAADrought to get the latest news, current conditions, and outlooks wherever they are. Follow us on Instagram to stay up to date on drought conditions in your region.
Learn more >
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NOAA Seeks Early Career Drought Scientist | |
NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory seeks a research physical scientist who will study physical processes related to drought onset, persistence, and demise. The researcher will work closely with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).
Learn more >
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UPCOMING
Events & Webinars
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About NIDIS
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) was authorized by Congress in 2006 (Public Law 109-430) with an interagency mandate to develop and provide a national drought early warning information system, by coordinating and integrating drought research, and building upon existing federal, tribal, state, and local partnerships.
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