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The crop progress report has finally come out, and reports significant plantings across much of the long grain production region. Louisiana is showing 64% planted as of April 10, which would indicate we have passed the 70% threshold as of the time of writing. This is right on par with normal for Louisiana. Texas is also right in line with normal, registering 60% planted. Those are the two leading states, with Arkansas just kicking off at 4%, Mississippi and Missouri at 1%, and then California still at 0% on the west coast for medium grain.

In Asia, prices have held steady at the $405pmt range for Thailand, little changed from last week. Vietnam has shaved off $5pmt, not at $410pmt, hanging right in line from the prices three months ago. India and Pakistan are holding steady at $355-$365pmt, holding close to last week’s prices, and those from the last several months. As discussed in previous reports, long grain rice has escaped the inflationary surge that is plaguing so many markets, largely on account of India’s farm subsidies that have led to oversized production and record exports.

While the U.S. rice industry is actively working to hold India to account for its violations of WTO agreements and excessive subsidies, it is in tandem working to rekindle its relationship with Cuba. With what could be our largest market only 90 miles away, bilateral trade agreements are still in the discussion phase, hoping to materialize into legitimate business for the future. With milled exports relying largely on Haiti, having another customer so close would be revolutionary for the U.S. rice market. It is a highly politicized issue, however, and enabling credit to the Cuban government in the extension of payment terms is an issue that has to be handled by the current Biden administration. USRPA is an active supporter of opening this line of business, and encourages these talks to re-open the Cuban market to the U.S. rice industry.

The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 50,100 MT, up noticeably from the previous week and up 33% from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Colombia (15,300 MT), Costa Rica (15,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (8,700 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), El Salvador (4,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Mexico (3,300 MT), were offset by reductions for Guatemala (500 MT), Nicaragua (100 MT), and the United Kingdom (100 MT). Exports of 47,300 MT were down 41% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (20,000 MT), the United Kingdom (9,900 MT), Saudi Arabia (9,200 MT), Mexico (3,300 MT), and Canada (2,700 MT).

The futures market was mostly sideways this week, avoiding any large moves based on the opaque nature of the crop being planted and light export activity. It is rare that there is such disparity on the size of the crop; but with landlords wanting rice, and farmers wanting alternate crops, the 10-15% reduction the industry is expecting lies in stark contrast to the USDA’s projection.