Ruy Teixeira
Monthly Commentary and Analysis
December 2021
Will Passing the BBB Help the Democrats?

Well....maybe....some. But I am skeptical passing the bill, even it gets through the Senate back to the House and finally to the President's desk, will do much to improve the Democrats' prospects in 2022. There's not much time for voters to feel the effects of the many, many measures in the bill (which at this point most voters are extremely confused about). Plus the shambolic and interminable horse-trading and hostage-taking that went into the bill was dreadful for the Democrats' image among normie voters. Finally, the historical record of parties benefiting in midterms from big legislation is, to put it kindly, spotty.
Wanted: More Working Class Voters

In my latest for The Liberal Patriot I discuss how the Democrats can reach more working class voters, drawing on the new Jacobin study and explaining how the party could rebrand itself to be more attractive to such voters.

"Times are tough for the historic party of the working class. The divorce between Democrats and the working class just continues to grow. Despite a slight improvement, Democrats still lost white working class (noncollege) voters in 2020 by 26 points (Catalist two party vote). Since 2012, nonwhite working class voters have shifted away from the Democrats by 18 points, with a particularly sharp shift in the last election and particularly among Hispanics.
You Want Sustainability? You're Going to Need Sustainable Politics

The movement to contain climate change has certainly generated a lot of support on the center-left, particularly among elites and activists. What it hasn't generated is a serious, sustainable politics that could plausibly lead to the changes such elites and activists advocate.

Peter Juul runs the sad realities of this down in a new piece on The Liberal Patriot:

"Last Saturday, the COP26 global climate summit drew to a close in Glasgow. Though the usual suspects declared it a failure even before it finished, the conclave of world leaders and officials did yield some incremental progress on climate change....
Revisiting the Fox News Fallacy

As I explain in my new piece at The Liberal Patriot, it's alive and well. And Virginia Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin thanks the Democrats for their sturdy work in this regard.

"Three months ago, I wrote a piece on the Fox News Fallacy. As I explained in that piece:

"This is the idea that if Fox News (substitute here the conservative bête noire of your choice if you prefer) criticizes the Democrats for X then there must be absolutely nothing to X and the job of Democrats is to assert that loudly and often. The problem is that an issue is not necessarily completely invalid just because Fox News mentions it.
My New Op-Ed in the New York Post!

I take exception to AOC's interpretation of last Tuesday's Democratic debacle.

"Tuesday’s election did not go well for Democrats. Democrat Terry McAuliffe lost the marquee governor’s race in heavily blue-trending Virginia, where Biden beat Trump by 10 points. And in dark blue New Jersey, where Biden won by 16 points, incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy just squeaked by GOP challenger Jack Ciatterelli. Dems did poorly in many other races, too.

Progressives blamed the Democratic Party’s failure to move further left, which they say would’ve triggered a tsunami of turnout from the progressive base.
Stick a Fork In 'Em: The Exit Polls Are Done

G. Elliott Morris, the Economist data journalist, looked into some of the VA traditional exit poll claims and finds them, essentially, unbelievable. I agree.

"[The traditional exit polls show] show that Democrats made gains with Latino and Asian voters between 2020 and 2021 despite their declining vote share statewide. According to Edison, Youngkin won in Virginia because McAuliffe’s share of the two-party vote with whites fell by eight points relative to Biden’s share with the group last year.

This is not unbelievable in isolation.