Ruy Teixeira
Monthly Commentary and Analysis
July 2021
The Nonwhite Working Class Isn't Buying What a Lot of Progressives Are Selling

The default approach of a lot of self-declared progressives includes not just a lot of reasonably popular left economic stances but also a wide range of views on cultural/social issues that are not popular with the broad working class. The general reaction by said progressives when you point this out is that, oh well, those are white working class voters and they're hopelessly reactionary.
The Dog That Didn't Bark in the 2020 Election: The White Working Class

My latest is up at The Liberal Patriot, where I discuss how the white working class vote failed Trump in the 2020 election.

"Trump’s not-so-secret weapon going into the 2020 election was the white working class (noncollege) vote. That weapon didn’t work or didn’t work well enough to save him. The release of Catalist and Census data, as well as other data sources, now allow us to sketch a portrait of that demographic in the 2020 election and how their voting patterns fell short of what Trump needed.
Reminder: The Republican Party Is Still a Viable Electoral Force That Can Win Elections Even Without Skulduggery to Subvert Them

Democrats are certainly right to mobilize against the various attempts by state GOPs to make voting harder and expand the possibilities for post-election monkey business on vote counting and certification. But in the process I fear many are losing sight of the fact that the GOP is not such a beaten and bedraggled party that they can only win if they succeed in this electoral skulduggery.
The Democrats Are Not a Big Tent Party. But They Should Be

If you doubt the truth of this assertion I recommend carefully examining the following statements and the likely responses by progressives from Andy Levison's latest Democratic Strategist memo. This exercise exposes how far from being a big tent party Democrats currently are.

"Democrats routinely describe the Democratic Party as a “coalition” or even a “big tent coalition.” But in reality Dems know that this is not the case.

To observe the evidence for this statement firsthand, decide if you agree with the following three statements:
Brahmin Left, Merchant Right, Stalled Realignment

With the discrediting of neoliberal economics and the clear openness of electorates in Western democracies to a new economic approach, you'd think a realignment to the left was in the offing. But more than a decade has passed since the Great Recession and it's not happening. That potential realignment is in stall mode.

The fundamental reason is the shift of working class voters out of left parties and the increasing reliance off such parties on highly-educated voters. That has created the stall situation where the left, even when it wins elections, is continually undermined by the bleeding of working class voters.
Demographic Change Always Works for the Democrats--Except When It Doesn't

In my new article on Persuasion, I try to explain as clearly as possible how to think about the political effects of demographic change and get beyond the standard naive interpretation of these effects. It's not that complicated if you keep an open mind and think logically about that attendant possibilities.

"Rising racial diversity is an ongoing trend in the United States, as the latest Census Bureau data confirms. In fact, the figures suggest that over the past decade, the white population will have declined for the first time in the nation’s history.