Ruy Teixeira
Monthly Commentary and Analysis
October 2020
Three Musts for the Biden Economic Plan

1. Talk about it more.
2. Go big
3. Go fast

It does seem like in the process of presenting himself as a sane alternative to Trump and reacting to his various daily outrages, Biden's economic plan is getting a bit lost. That's not so good because it really does need to be front and center with the groundwork laid for fast, effective action once he gets into office. Three articles attack these three points.
After a Biden Victory: What Could Go Right, What Could Go Wrong

Even if Biden wins and even if the Democrats take back the Senate and even if they're willing to mess with the filibuster, governing this crisis-ridden country will still be a tremendous challenge.But meeting that challenge could produce an amazing amount of progressive change. Or it could all fizzle out pretty quickly.

George Packer's new Atlantic article is the best place to start on confronting these possibilities in a realistic way.
Demographic Shifts and the 2020 Election: Are They Enough to Sink Trump?

Cook Political Report (CPR) and NBC News have put together a nice interactive that's worth taking a look at. The basic idea of the interactive is that the set the baseline turnout and (two party) voter support figures at the levels they estimate for the 2016 election and then provide sliders where you can move these turnout and party support levels up or down for the 2020 election and see what effect these changes have (the changes are apparently applied uniformly across states).
The Expanding Electoral Map

Cook Political Report, which tends to be fairly conservative in its assessments and which started this cycle classifying both Iowa and Ohio as "likely Republican" has moved both states to "toss up". That reflects a continuing spate of good polls for Biden in these two states (not to mention the increasing likelihood that Democrat Theresa Greenfield can unseat Joni Ernst in the IA Senate race). That makes the already good electoral map for Biden even stronger. As Amy Walter' article on the new ratings notes:
About Those Shy Trump Voters...

This keeps on coming up. But so far analysts have found precious little evidence that such shy Trump voters--those unlikely to tell an interviewer they support Trump and thus skewing the polls--exist in appreciable numbers. Now here's nice little study by Morning Consult that should put this one to rest--but probably won't because Democrats and paranoid and Republicans want to believe it.
Turnout Wasn't Going to Save the Democrats--and It Won't Save Trump Either

My co-author on the States of Change project and research director of the Voter Study Group, Rob Griffin, has a terrific new article out about turnout and Trump's chances. Short version: no, it is very unlikely that he'll be saved by a tsunami of white noncollege turnout. A sharp shift in his direction among white noncollege voters--now that's another matter.