Ruy Teixeira
Monthly Commentary and Analysis
October 2021
The Seductive, Siren Call of College-Educated Voters

Don't fall for it! It won't work!

"Education polarization is increasing election on election in the United States. In 2012, the difference in Democratic support between college-educated and noncollege (working class) voters in the Presidential election was about 4 margin points (Catalist data, two party vote), with college voters being more favorable to the Democrats than noncollege voters. In 2016 that difference ballooned to 18 points. And in 2020, it went up again to 22 points.
The Democrats' "People of Color" Problem

Andy Levison has a new memo out at The Democratic Strategist that I strongly recommend; "Democrats: Let’s Face Reality – The Term “People Of Color” Doesn’t Describe A Political Coalition That Actually Exists"

He explains:

"The term “People of Color” is now playing a central role in the Democratic discussion of political strategy because it is described by its advocates as being the key part of a new majority coalition that Democrats could create if they would simply abandon their effort to regain the support of white working class voters.
The Cultural Left and Democratic Party Prospects

In my latest for The Liberal Patriot, I attempt a more detailed explanation for why the cultural left is indeed a drag on Democratic party prospects.
"The cultural left has managed to associate the Democratic party with a series of views on crime, immigration, policing, free speech and of course race and gender that are quite far from those of the median voter. That’s a success for the cultural left but the hard reality is that it’s an electoral liability for the Democratic party.
Midterm Electorate Composition in 2022: Who Will It Help?

This is a solid data analytic article by Lakshya Jain on Sabato's Crystal Ball. Jain uses Catalist data to simulate the partisan lean of recent midterm and presidential electorates if they had voted by demographic group as they did in 2020. This indicates some possible shifts in the traditional relative Republican lean of midterm electorates due to the shifting loyalties of the white college graduate demographic. Jain's key tables are below.

His overall conclusions:

— "Midterm electorates are typically whiter and more educated than presidential electorates.
— At one time, this sort of change from the presidential to the midterm electorate might have made midterm electorates worse for Democrats. But given changes in the electorate, this midterm turnout pattern may actually aid Democrats, or at least not hurt them as much as it once did.
The Norway Way

We have some heartening results from Norway. The social democratic Labour Party-led opposition has handily defeated the incumbent center-right coalition and will take power (link to detailed results below). Are there lessons there for the Democratic party and other parties of the Western left?

John Halpin thinks so and outlines them at The Liberal Patriot:

(1) Universal social welfare policies grounded in the importance of work garner broad support.
(2) Pragmatic energy policies that protect people while moving to cleaner energy sources are more realistic to voters.
(3) An “everyone participates” model of social and cultural policy works better than ideological division.
Independents Declaring Independence from Biden

Biden came into office with lot of a good will from independents. Alas, a lot of that is dissipating under the press of events. At The Liberal Patriot, John Halpin explains the problems and offers some ideas for correctives:

"One year from now the traditional post-Labor Day election sprint for control of Congress will be in full swing. Luckily for President Biden and congressional Democrats, the election is not happening this November. Given the steady decline in the President’s overall job approval this summer – down 10 points from a high of 55.7 percent in early April to 45.7 percent in early September according to the RealClearPolitics polling average – the Democrats would surely lose control of one or both legislative houses.