The Bank of Canada lowered its key interest rate to 2.5% to stimulate a weakened economy. Unemployment has climbed to over 7%. The youth unemployment rate (for those between 15-24) is 14.5%. Lenders are expected to offer mortgages that could soon be in the 3% range

Buyer's are looking for a deal. Sellers that bought when prices were high are stuck mentally in wanting to cash out, but at what price.

Even would-be sellers want the high prices of 2022, but that ship has sailed.

For much of this year, the GTA’s housing market appeared to be holding onto a fragile recovery. That narrative cracked in August. But on a seasonally adjusted basis, it was the first monthly decline since March. Prices remain under pressure: the benchmark fell, continuing a nine-month streak without gains.

Detached homes and condos lead the decline. Conventional wisdom said 416 detached homes would prove more resilient than condos. Instead, they have posted one of the steepest drops of this cycle, down more than 10% year over year, the largest decline in the core and among freehold properties. The only segment that fared worse was 905 condominiums, which fell 10.6% annually. These are not marginal adjustments; they are some of the deepest corrections to date.

Inventory surge reshapes market power. The biggest story is not just about falling prices, but also about swelling supply. Active listings surged 22.4% compared to last August, one of the largest year-over-year increases on record. Only May 2025’s 41.5% spike rivaled it.

And the momentum is not slowing. Active listings historically rise in September, and early tracking suggests another record could be set.

Last year, inventory jumped 5% from August to September. With 2025 already running 20 to 40 % higher year over year, a comparable gain would push Toronto into uncharted territory for supply.

This imbalance is shifting the balance of power. With more options, buyers can demand price cuts. Sellers who resist price discovery face longer wait times.

The average days on market rose from 29 to 33, with properties now typically taking more than a month, sometimes two or longer, to sell.

TRREB and bullish analysts may point out that sales are higher than last year. But the data reveals why: more people are transacting because prices are falling, not because confidence or fundamentals have improved. In July, sales briefly outpaced new listings, hinting at demand catching up. But in August, that reversed. New listings jumped 9.4% while sales crept up only 2.3%. Supply growth is once again outpacing demand growth, a hallmark of deepening buyer’s market conditions.

For buyers, today’s environment is one of rare leverage. Longer days on market and swelling inventory mean opportunities to negotiate. Now, multiple offers are resulting in conditional offers being accepted or no offers meeting the seller’s expectations, leaving the property unsold.

The risk is not missing out, but over-reaching, especially if prices continue to slide into the fall.

GTA housing market has always been a proxy for the broader economy. Today’s weakness coincides with slowing exports in Ontario’s steel and automotive industries, pressured by U.S. tariffs. Housing, once the locomotive of economic recovery, cannot be counted on alone this time.

Whether the market stabilizes or continues correcting will hinge less on interest rates and more on structural alignment: matching supply to incomes, inventory to demand, and housing policy to the realities of the twenty-first-century economy.

There is not much we can do about it, know that we voted for the “powers that be” to lead the way, so let them do their job.

Thank you for your continued support, Judy