Prime Minister Suga became Japan’s political leader on September 16, 2020. It was a smooth and quick transition after Prime Minister Abe announced his intention to step down on August 28. Some said Mr. Suga was chosen undemocratically because the LDP leadership chose a closed election, blocking votes from the party’s more than one million members. Under normal circumstances, when a LDP President serves out a three-year term, the party would no doubt hold open elections, allowing these members to vote.

However, as Prime Minister Abe was resigning in the middle of his term, the LDP leadership decided to take another option, which is reserved for emergency circumstances. The LDP rules allow a faster process in which the vote is limited to its legislators and just three representatives from each of 47 prefectures for a total of 535 electors. Prime Minister Suga urged “all legislators, local party members, and party friends to unite under the flag of the LDP to advance Japan forward” immediately after he was elected the party president.

Prime Minister Suga has expressed his strong desire to introduce regulatory reforms to revitalize the nation. He seems determined to achieve the goal by breaking bureaucratic stove-piping, vested interest, and bad precedents. He would like to establish a digital agency, which would transcend ministerial boundaries, as a symbol of regulatory reform. He has also stated his intention of carrying on the mission set by Prime Minister Abe on both domestic and foreign policies. As a matter of fact, out of 20 cabinet minister positions, eight ministers are retained in the same position. Seven ministers are either moved to other portfolios or reassigned to ministerial positions, which they held before. Only five are allocated their first cabinet posts.

The big question is whether Prime Minister Suga will be able to hold office long enough to make his mark. Mr. Suga at 71 years and 9 months is the oldest prime minister to take office since Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa in 1991. He faces tough political challenges of preventing the COVID-19 crisis from exploding and revitalizing the Japanese economy. He has just a year to serve as the LDP president as the party rules allow him to serve out only the remainder of Prime Minister Abe’s three-year term. In order to secure his role as prime minister following the completion of this one-year stint, he may want to call a general election while his popularity is high, to gain extended endorsement as the LDP President. When a longer tenure as prime minister is confirmed with the party support, Prime Minister Suga will be able to form a cabinet truly of his own and do what he really wants to do.

Prime Minister Abe became the longest-serving prime minister in Japan’s history. The foundation of his political achievements led by the cabinet was longevity ensured by six consecutive national election victories and a tight grip on bureaucracy. However, longevity of premiership is not a hallmark of Japanese politics, except some strong leaders as of late, such as Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone and Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. As a matter of fact, the country had six prime ministers in six years and three months between Prime Minister Koizumi and Prime Minister Abe. Prime Minister Suga’s political skills, judgment, and determination will soon be tested while he works to secure longevity as prime minister, amid the double crisis of COVID-19 and economic stagnation.

On September 15, Sasakawa USA welcomed Dr. Tomohiko Taniguchi, former Special Advisor to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Cabinet and Professor at Keio University, Graduate School of System Design and Management, to discuss Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s accomplishments, highlighting both his domestic and international political agenda achievements. Throughout his presentation, Dr. Taniguchi drew on his expertise as Prime Minister Abe’s primary foreign policy speechwriter in 2007 and since 2013. In the Q&A portion of the event, participants were able to inquire into the specifics of topics covered by Dr. Taniguchi, including perceived shortcomings of the Abe administration, womenomics, Japan-India relations, and Japanese foreign policy in the Middle East. Sasakawa USA appreciates Dr. Taniguchi for taking the time to participate in this event and wishes him the best as he transitions into his private life. You can read a detailed recap and view a recording of the virtual presentation here.

Policy Briefing: Recap of Rekishi no Kyokun Author Talk with Prof. Nobukatsu Kanehara

On August 26, Sasakawa USA welcomed Prof. Nobukatsu Kanehara, Faculty of Law Department of Political Science at Doshisha University, to discuss his new book, Rekishi no Kyokun, a historical analysis of Japan’s foreign policy. Through his talk, Prof. Kanehara explained to participants how various failures in Japan’s past led to Japanese strategies of the present. The event was held on-the-record and included distinguished guests from the Washington, D.C. policy community, think tanks, industry, and the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. Dr. Satohiro Akimoto, Chairman and President of Sasakawa USA moderated the Q&A discussion. You can read a detailed recap and view a recording of the virtual presentation here.

On September 30, Sasakawa USA, in partnership with the Association of Former Members of Congress (FMC), co-hosted the first of a series of events on the U.S. presidential election. This event was held the day after the first presidential debate between President Donald J. Trump and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. During the event, Senator Tim Hutchinson (R-AR, 1993-2003), The Honorable Martin Frost (D-TX, 1979-2005), and Senator Tim Wirth (D-CO, 1987-1993) discussed what took place during the debate the night before, moderated by The Honorable L.F. Payne (D-VA, 1988-1997), President-Elect of FMC. A recap of the event, as well as a recording of the discussion, will be available on Sasakawa USA’s website in the coming weeks.

On September 10, Dr. Satohiro Akimoto, Chairman and President of Sasakawa USA, spoke about his views on the U.S. presidential election at the Japan National Press Club. Dr. Akimoto analyzed the 2020 U.S. presidential election by comparing the support for and strategy of President Donald J. Trump and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., by looking at the changes in U.S. society since the 2016 election. This included looking at trade environment, racial division, and the coronavirus pandemic, and by forecasting the impact of the election process including mail-in ballots. He also offered insights about the future of the Japan-U.S. relationship. The presentation, in Japanese, was followed by a Q&A with distinguished members of the press club.

Photo: Virtual Talk with Dr. Akimoto at the Japan National Press Club.

Sasakawa USA is pleased to host Minister Yoko Kamikawa, newly selected to serve as the Minister of Justice for the cabinet of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga for a virtual roundtable on October 1. In addition to discussing the impact of COVID-19 on women in Japan, Minister Kamikawa will also address women’s leadership in Japanese business and politics, and opportunities for Japan to promote diversity in political leadership during COVID-19. Dr. Atsushi Sunami, President of Sasakawa Peace Foundation, will introduce Minister Kamikawa, and Ambassador Melanne Verveer, Director of Georgetown University’s Institute for Women, Peace and Security, will offer commentary on the issues. An in-depth recap of the event, as well as a recording of the discussion, will be available on Sasakawa USA’s website in the coming weeks.

In addition to the event held on September 30, Sasakawa USA, in partnership with the Association of Former Members of Congress (FMC), will co-host three additional events as part of a series on the U.S. presidential election. The next event will be held on Thursday, October 8, at 9:00 am EDT, the day after the vice-presidential debate between Vice President Michael R. Pence and Senator Kamala D. Harris. Additionally, there will be an event after the third presidential debate on Friday, October 23, and the final event will be held the day after Election Day on Wednesday, November 4. Following this series of events, Sasakawa USA and FMC will co-host a series of post-election analyses. 

In their new article, The Japan-U.S. Alliance and Climate Security: Building the Alliance’s History for Future Preparedness and Response, Rachel Fleishman and Shiloh Fetzek of the Center for Climate Security partnered with Christine Parthemore of the Council on Strategic Risks to discuss the history of U.S.-Japan cooperation on responses to natural and manmade disasters. They examined the implications of climate change and environmental security on the Japan Self-Defense Forces and the alliance writ large. The mounting challenges brought by a changing climate will surely challenge the alliance, but the authors believe that improving disaster preparedness and response may help the alliance adapt to more volatile weather and climate crises. The authors provide some insightful policy recommendations that will help policymakers incorporate environmental security into their national strategies and bilateral HA/DR exercises.

In his new article, Seeking Further Cooperation for Strengthening the Rule-Based Order at Sea in Asia, Commander Kentaro Furuya (JCG) discusses the role of the Japan-U.S. alliance in maritime capacity building in the Indo-Pacific. In recent decades, both Japan and the United States have invested in coast guard and maritime law enforcement agencies throughout Southeast Asia and Oceania. Much of this has been done to reinforce international norms and the law of the sea. In recent years though, in order to counter China’s attempts to destabilize the region, these efforts have doubled. Commander Furuya discusses whether these efforts have been enough to counter China’s subversion of the international world order, or if the alliance needs to invest more in maritime capacity building throughout the Indo-Pacific.

In his new article, From the Strawberry Fields of Akita to Prime Minster of Japan: Getting to Know Prime Minister Suga, Dr. Satohiro Akimoto, Chairman and President of Sasakawa USA, provides a glimpse into the childhood and career path of the new Prime Minister. From Mr. Suga’s humble roots on a strawberry farm in Akita prefecture to the highest elected office in Japan, the new prime minister’s journey has shaped his character and informs his approach as a leader. Prime Minister Suga’s Cabinet selections reveal an approach to governance that prioritizes continuity with the previous Abe administration, but also indicate his fervent goal of domestic regulatory reform. Mr. Suga has declared that he will break up bureaucratic stove-piping, vested interests, and bad precedent in Japan’s regulatory scheme. Going forward, uncertainty remains if Prime Minister Suga will call a snap election to take advantage of his high approval rating, or instead seek the mandate of governance a year from now in September 2021.

Photo: Prime Minister Suga at his first press conference. (Prime Minister’s Official Homepage)