Save the Date | Putin's Red Lines: Does He Mean What We Think We Heard?

Putin's Red Lines

Does He Mean What We Think We Heard?

Monday, October 21, 2024

4:00 pm - 5:00 pm EST

Elliott School of International Affairs

1957 E St NW | Washington, DC 20052

Voesar Conference Room | 4th Floor

This event is on record and open to the media.

What are Putin's red lines? How do we evaluate them? Is there something different about the recent threat directed at the West should Ukraine receive approval to use lethal military assistance to strike deep inside Russia? This talk seeks to address these questions by deciphering the content, context, and coherence of Putin's red line discourse. Specifically, it leverages data analytical techniques to compare and contrast expectations from the Western canon with the idiosyncrasies of the construction and timing of Putin's explicit references to red lines. The disconnect between this overt discourse and potential trigger events is situated within the strategic logic of Russia's "way of warfare" that places a premium on "reflexive control," as opposed to demonstrating reputation and credibility. This explication of the explicit discourse is augmented by ongoing data and visual analysis of the application of Putin's "real" red line threats to identify benchmarks for assessing the most recent threats and the risks of inadvertent escalation.

Speaker

Dr. Adam N. Stulberg is the Chair and Professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, where he teaches and researches international security, Russia/Eurasian politics, and energy security. His current research explores the geopolitics of oil and gas, Russia's role in "gray zone" conflicts, and the strategic implications of emerging technologies. He has authored multiple books, published widely in leading academic and policy journals, and received several prestigious teaching and scholarly awards, including the Neal Family Endowed Chair. Dr. Stulberg also serves as Associate Director of the Strategic Energy Institute and has worked closely with policymakers on U.S. security and energy issues.

Moderator

Dr. Ivan Grek is the Director of the Russia Program at George Washington University’s Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies. Trained in political science and history, Ivan specializes in studies of illiberal grassroot movements and ideology in Russia. Ivan’s research was published in peer-reviewed political science journals, as well as US and Russian media outlets such as the Washington Post and Kommersant.

The Russia Program at GW condemns Russia's invasion of Ukraine and calls for the restoration of Ukraine's territorial sovereignty.

The Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES)

Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University

1957 E Street, NW / Suite 412 / Washington, DC 20052

Tel (202) 994-6340 / Fax (202) 994-5436 / Email ieresgwu@gwu.edu

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