AJA Weekly Recap

2026 | January 26

Greetings!


Here is your weekly market commentary. We hope you enjoy receiving our newsletters. If you have any questions about the following content, please let us know!


- The AJA Team

This Week….

  • The Markets
  • Schwab 2025 Tax Form Schedule
  • Winter Storm
  • US Rates & Borrowing

The Weekly Focus


Think About It

 “Trust yourself. Create the kind of self that you will be happy to live with all your life. Make the most of yourself by fanning the tiny, inner sparks of possibility into flames of achievement.”

 

― Golda Meir, Former Israeli Prime Minister 


The Markets

Stocks Down Slightly


For the second week in a row, the S&P 500, the Dow, and the NASDAQ posted fractional declines. The former two indexes ended up less than 1% below the record highs they set on January 12, while the NASDAQ was about 2% shy of its historic peak set nearly three months ago.


The stock market’s relatively modest overall setback for the week didn’t come without drama, as U.S. indexes tumbled around 2% on Tuesday before staging a rebound rally the following day. International tensions over Greenland and the related prospect of tariffs were the key catalysts.


Precious metals prices surged again, extending rallies that have lifted gold and silver well above their previous record levels. Gold was trading around $4,980 per ounce on Friday afternoon, while silver surpassed $100 per ounce for the first time, just a couple of weeks after it first breached the $80 threshold. 


The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for tracking inflation remained modestly elevated in late 2025. Core inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index was 2.8% in November—above the Fed’s long-term 2.0% target. Numbers for both October and November were released together on Thursday because agencies are still catching up following the recent government shutdown. 


The U.S. economy’s rapid growth in the third quarter of last year was slightly more robust than initially estimated. The government’s updated figure put the quarter’s annual GDP growth rate at 4.4%, up from a previous estimate of 4.3%. The result was up from a 3.8% rate in the second quarter and marked the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2023. 


China’s economy met the government’s full-year target for 5.0% growth in 2025, but the rate of expansion slowed in the fourth quarter. From October through December, the world’s second-largest economy recorded a 4.5% annual GDP rate, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and the lowest reading since early 2023. 


Expectations rose slightly as a second week’s batch of quarterly results came in. As of Friday, analysts projected that earnings for S&P 500 companies rose 8.2% in the fourth quarter versus an 8.0% estimate after the opening week of earnings season, according to FactSet. The figures are based on companies that have already reported plus projections for those that haven’t yet released results. 


Bond market trading ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next meeting continued to support expectations of a pause in the recent string of interest rate cuts. Friday's trading in rate futures markets implied a 97% probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged, according to CME FedWatch. The Fed has cut rates at each of its three most recent meetings, and its next two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday.

 

Source: John Hancock Investment Management  

Schwab 2025 Tax Form Schedule

It’s time to begin gathering your 2025 tax documents, including your Schwab 1099s (for non-retirement accounts) and 1099Rs (for retirement account withdrawals). The easiest way to access your 1099s is to log into your Schwab account by clicking this link. You will need to create an account if you have not already done so. If you have any questions or difficulties accessing your tax documents, please do not hesitate to call the office and Emily or Maya will be happy to assist.

 

PLEASE NOTE:



  • If you charitably gifted directly from your IRA via a qualified charitable distribution (QCD), make sure to let your CPA know, as the Schwab 1099R will not show the charitable distribution as non-taxable.
  • 1099’s for joint accounts will show under both owner’s Schwab logins.
  • Some accounts will have CORRECTED 1099s issued after the first posting. Make sure to provide your CPA with the most version of the 1099 for each account.
  • Finally, make sure to gather 1099s for any accounts that were opened or closed in 2025.

 

Schwab released the following schedule for tax form postings to your account:

Winter Storm Stay Safe!

Nashville, along with many other cities and states around the country, is in the midst of a historically damaging winter storm. For all residents of Middle Tennessee and any other states affected, please stay safe!


Our thoughts are with all those out of power at the moment. For more information on warming stations in Nashville, click here.

What Could Higher Treasury Rates Mean for the United States?

The U.S. government spends a lot of money. Some of that spending is covered with taxes, tariffs, and other sources of revenue. When that’s not enough, the government borrows the money it needs to operate.

 

The U.S. borrows money by issuing U.S. Treasury bills, notes, and bonds. When a person, company, or country buys a U.S. Treasury, they are lending the government money. In return, the United States agrees to pay interest for a specific period of time and then return the amount borrowed.

 

The interest the United States pays on Treasuries is a lot like the interest people pay on outstanding credit card balances. The higher the debt, the more interest is owed.

 

U.S. interest costs are growing

Officially, the U.S. government’s spending year begins in October, which can be confusing. The period from October through December 2025 is known as the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2026 (FY26).

 

Over that period, Fiscal Data reported the federal government:


  • Spent $1.83 trillion,
  • Collected $1.22 trillion, and 
  • Ran short by about $602 billion.

 

In FY26, the government spent more on interest on the national debt (+13%), and Social Security and Medicare (+9%). It spent less on the Environmental Protection Agency (-81%), Department of Homeland Security/FEMA disaster relief (-38%), Department of Education (-26%), and Department of Agriculture (-18%).

 

For context, in FY 2025 (the period from October 1, 2024, to September 30, 2025), the U.S. government:

 

  • Spent $7.01 trillion,
  • Collected $5.23 trillion, and
  • Ran short by $1.78 trillion.

 

Higher interest costs mean less money for other priorities

As interest costs rise, they tend to “crowd out opportunities for investment in other important priorities. In fact, the [United States] government is already spending more on interest costs than on education, research and development, and infrastructure combined. If unaddressed, the growing borrowing costs will pose significant challenges for the nation’s fiscal future,” reported the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.

AJ Advisors
www.ajadvice.com

Phone: (615) 709-8709

Fax: (615) 709-8709

eMoney

Charles Schwab

Advyzon

John Stauffer, CFP®
Partner

Andrew Quinn, CFP®
Partner

Emily Triano

Operations Manager


emily@ajadvice.com


Maya Laws

Operations Associate


maya@ajadvice.com


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