Pheno Forecasts

As the insect pest season comes to a close, we hope that the USA National Phenology Network's Pheno Forecasts have informed you about when pests were active in your area.

This year, we sent you email notifications approximately two weeks and again six days before the threshold was reached at your location for the life cycle stage of interest for each species you selected from our list.

We would greatly appreciate your feedback on our Pheno Forecasts. Please share your thoughts in this 3-question survey.
What did you report on insect pests this year?
In total, 32 observers tracked all 13 Pest Patrol species at 37 total sites this year through Nature's Notebook. You reported occurrences of eastern tent caterpillar, hemlock woolly adelgid, emerald ash borer, Asian longhorned beetle, apple maggot, and spotted lanternfly. In the next couple of months, we'll be analyzing how these observations lined up with our Pheno Forecasts, so stay tuned!

The map below shows the sites that have reported presence of one of the Pest Patrol species. The colors of the species across the top correspond to the color of the icons on the map. Darker colors represent sites with more records submitted.
You reported eastern tent caterpillar in Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Massachusetts. The proportion of "yes" rerecords for eastern tent caterpillars started increasing in mid-March, peaked in late April, then declined at the end of May.
You reported hemlock woolly adelgid in Massachusetts and New York. The proportion of "yes" records for HWA eggs started increasing in late February, and peaked from early April to mid-May. Active crawlers started increasing in late April and peaked in mid-June.
You reported apple maggot in Washington and Texas. The proportion of "yes" records started increasing in early July.
You reported spotted lanternfly in Pennsylvania. The proportion of "yes" records peaked in late June for nymphs and peaked in early August for adults.
We also received reports Asian longhorned beetle adults in Massachusetts on June 11 and emerald ash borer adults in Michigan on June 16 and July 6.

In our next message, we will take a look at how our Pheno Forecasts lined up to your reports of activity for these species. This analysis will shine light on how well the forecasts perform in areas that are outside of the locations where the published thresholds were developed. Your observations are making this important work possible!
Earn your Pest Patrol Badge!

Submit observations of pests six times in a year and you can earn the Pest Patrol badge featured at right.

How do we forecast activity of pests?
Insect pest forecasts are based on USA-NPN Accumulated Growing Degree Day (AGDD) map products and published GDD thresholds. References for the published thresholds used to generate the forecasts appear on the individual species pages linked from our Pheno Forecast page.
Kathy Gerst