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Good afternoon, folks! We've finally turned the corner from a wild winter here in the Bluegrass State, and today we're seeing highs soar into the upper 70s to low 80s. While this warmth is a welcome change, it's unusual for early March and a sign of what's to come.
As many of you are aware, we have our first severe weather situation of the spring season on the horizon. This evening, a severe line of storms is expected to develop across Missouri and move eastward into the overnight hours, reaching Western Kentucky between 10 PM and 2 AM. The conditions are ripe for a regional severe weather outbreak, and Western Kentucky is included in this threat. The Storm Prediction Center has updated their Day 1 Convective Outlook (image above), and Western Kentucky remains in the 'Moderate Risk' category, which is a level 4 out of 5. This level is something we don't see too often throughout the year and more than warrants our vigilance, especially since this will be an overnight event
All modes of severe weather are possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Below are the probabilities for each specific threat. Additionally, much of Western KY is within a "hatched" region (indicated by black dashes), signaling the potential for significant severe storms, such as damaging winds exceeding 74 mph, hail larger than 2 inches, and EF-2 or stronger tornadoes. For example, in the tornado outlook, there is a 10% or greater probability of an EF-2 or stronger tornado occurring within 25 miles of any point in the hatched area.
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