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December 1, 2024
Key Developments and What We're Discussing Today (this version corrects two typos in the last version and is the one you should share):
1) It's been 422 days since October 7, 2023, when Hamas terrorists infiltrated Israel on Simchat Torah and murdered 1,200 people (including 44 Americans). More Jews were murdered on that day than on any day since the Holocaust. Hamas wounded 3,300 and took 251 hostage during a day of brutal savagery and sexual violence; 101 hostages, many dead, some raped and possibly pregnant, remain captive in Gaza.
2) The 101 remaining hostages include seven Americans, four probably alive: Keith Siegal, Omer Neutra, Edan Alexander, Sagui Dekel-Chen, Itay Chen, Judi Weinstein Haggai, and Gad Haggai. Don't forget them.
3) The Biden-Harris administration brokered a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah that could pave the way for an end to the Gaza war and release of the hostages.
4) Trump won but he does not have a mandate. He is the first major party presidential candidate since William Jennings Bryan who thrice failed to win a majority of the popular vote. But nearly half the country fell for his con-- or worse, voted for him knowing what he was selling. It's now a race against time--the priority must be winning free and fair elections while we still have free and fair elections.
5) And some stuff you might have missed, including Trump's nomination of Charles Kushner, Jared's father and a convicted felon, as Ambassador to France and Trump's nomination of Kash Patel as FBI Director.
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Hi Steve,
The Biden-Harris administration negotiated a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. This ceasefire is a major diplomatic achievement that will provide calm in northern Israel and open the door for progress in Gaza and the return of the hostages.
The families of American hostages in Gaza are urging us to seize the moment. As a practical matter, that means an end to the war in Gaza now in return for release of all the hostages now, an outcome supported by 71% of Israelis, including 56% of Netanyahu's right-wing bloc supporters.
The Biden administration said yesterday that the hostage video released yesterday of "American-Israeli citizen Edan Alexander is a cruel reminder of Hamas’s terror against citizens of multiple countries, including our own. We have been in touch with Edan’s family. The war in Gaza would stop tomorrow and the suffering of Gazans would end immediately — and would have ended months ago — if Hamas agreed to release the hostages. It has refused to do so, but as the President said last week, we have a critical opportunity to conclude the deal to release the hostages, stop the war, and surge humanitarian assistance into Gaza."
Announcing the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah last week, President Biden demonstrated the moral clarity we have come to expect and will soon miss. Biden said, "Let’s be clear: Israel did not launch this war. ... since the war with Hezbollah began, over 70,000 Israelis have been forced to live as refugees in their own country, helplessly watching their homes, their businesses, their communities as they were bombarded and destroyed. And over 300,000 Lebanese people have also been forced to live as refugees in their own country in a war imposed on them by Hezbollah."
Biden added, "if Hezbollah or anyone else breaks the deal and poses a direct threat to Israel, then Israel retains the right to self-defense consistent with international law, just like any country when facing a terrorist group pledged to that country’s destruction."
The fighting in Lebanon was a war between Israel and Iran's proxy, Hezbollah. This ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah includes strong safeguards. Hamas has not negotiated in good faith for months but is seeing its ally, Hezbollah, making a deal with Israel, which isolates Hamas and allows Israel to focus on Gaza.
The lesson is that we need a president who not only supports Israel but who has the respect and personal relationships to succeed diplomatically in support of Israel. Biden has that standing with other world leaders. We saw it last week and we saw it when Biden twice assembled an international coalition to protect Israel from Iran's ballistic missile attacks.
Trump is repeatedly laughed at and mocked by world leaders. We and Israel are in for a rough four years.
Shades of William Jennings Bryan. Trump is the first major party candidate in U.S. history since William Jennings Bryan who thrice failed to win a majority of the popular vote. Trump's share of the popular vote in 2024 was one of the smallest in modern history.
If about 280,000 votes spread across three states had gone the other way, we'd be talking about the flawless campaign Kamala Harris ran. Whatever Trump's victory is, it's not a mandate. Republicans lost ground in the House. Their Senate gains were a function of the states with Senate elections this year.
The bad news is that Trump won. The good news is that nearly half the country did not fall for his con. It's now a race against time. Democrats need to win free and fair elections while we still have free and fair elections. That means either turning out voters who stayed home in 2024 or persuading a tiny fraction of those who voted for Trump to come to their senses.
Trump voters, nearly half the country, used the price of eggs, resentment of coastal elites, or yes, sometimes Israel, as an excuse to vote for a 34-time convicted felon who paid hush money to cover up sex with a porn star four months after his wife gave birth to prevent Americans from knowing his true character before an election, a man who stole classified documents, incited a violent insurrection, was found legally liable for sexual abuse, refused to accept the results of a lawful election, wants to ban abortion, and compiled a terrible record as president.
Some Trump voters might be nice people and good neighbors. But they are also either uninformed or astonishingly tolerant of racism, antisemitism, corruption, and lies.
The irony is that the Biden-Harris administration was better on the economy, including inflation and the deficit, than Trump. The Biden-Harris record on Israel was better than Trump's. But Trump voters were either unaware of that or were rationalizing not their resentment of coastal elites but their resentment of Americans who did not look like them--or worse, they knew full well what Trump was selling and they liked it.
Trump's campaign reaffirmed the validity of Lyndon Johnson's observation that “If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you.”
Trump said that Jews who don't vote for him hate their religion and ought to have their heads examined. That's not why 71% of Jewish voters voted for Harris but it does make one wonder what a Republican candidate would have to do to lose the 26% who voted for Trump.
We need to stop treating Trump voters like children without agency and stop making excuses for them. Wajahat Ali writes that he has "yet to see a major story or report commissioned by a cable news show, newspaper, or magazine that demands that Trump voters go to urban diners and talk to Democratic voters. I have yet to see any finger-wagging paternalism from these establishment leaders asking Trump voters why Donald Trump has yet to crack 50% support from the voting population."
Pundits say that Republicans won because they campaigned on bumper sticker slogans while Democrats campaigned on detailed programs. But both sides did almost equally well in the last election.
The hard part, regardless of the message, is getting voters to hear the message. Until we figure out how to reach Trump voters in their bubbles, it will be a constant struggle.
Everyone thinks they know what the Democratic message should be. I was slated as a delegate for Hillary Clinton in my congressional district in 2016. Bernie won half the vote and thus half the delegates. I was in the half of Hillary delegates that was not elected. Every Hillary voter I spoke with thought that Hillary was more likely than Bernie to win the general election. Every Bernie voter I spoke with thought that Bernie was more likely than Hillary to win the general election.
Maybe that's not surprising. But not one Hillary voter told me that even though they favored Bernie's more progressive agenda, they were supporting Hillary because they thought her centrist message was more appealing to the general electorate and she was more likely to win.
Not one Bernie voter told me that even though they favored Hillary's more moderate policies, they were supporting Bernie because they thought his brand of economic populism was more likely to carry the day in the general election.
Amazingly, everyone sincerely believed that the candidate who shared their personal views was the candidate who appealed to more people, or who would appeal to more people if only given the chance.
We are seeing more of the same from the post-mortems on the Harris campaign. My advice: Work as hard as you can for the candidates you think would be the best office holders, and if they lose the primary, compare the candidate who won to the Republican alternative, and use that as your motivation to work as hard as you can in the general. Don't overthink this. Too many variables are unknown or beyond our control. Doing what you think is right is not a bad strategy either.
I do not blame Kamala Harris. I blame the American people. And I blame us for not doing more to help the American people understand what was at stake.
Corrections. I'm entitled to my own opinions but not to my own facts, so I appreciate it when readers bring errors to my attention. No one pointed out any errors in last week's newsletter, so I guess it was perfect.
In Case You Missed It:
1) JoJoFromJerz: If you're looking for someone to be nice to MAGA, that ain't me.
2) Jay Michaelson: Cultivating gratitude is a thing you ought to do precisely when you don’t want to do it.
3) The Biden-Harris administration is advancing a $680 million arms sale to Israel.
4) Michael Koplow explains that the ICC arrest warrants "are only going to further erode the standing of the ICC and its principles, and will have the added-on effect of making sustainable solutions in Gaza harder to achieve."
5) Trump nominated Charles Kushner, Jared Kushner's father, as Ambassador to France. Kyle Griffin reminds us that "Kushner hatched a scheme involving a prostitute to entrap his brother-in-law and eventually pleaded guilty to tax evasion and making illegal campaign donations. Chris Christie called it 'one of the most loathsome, disgusting crimes' he ever prosecuted as U.S. attorney." Trump pardoned Kushner in 2020. The tweets write themselves: Tim Miller, Max Burns, Tom Nichols, and David Frum.
6) Trump nominated Kash Patel, a conspiracy theorist and Trump sycophant, as FBI Director.
Social Posts of the Week. David Rothkopf and pourmecoffee.
Thread of the Week. Timothy Snyder.
Video Clip of the Week. Alex Edelman's Thanksgiving tradition.
Vintage Music Clip of the Week. When the Rolling Stones (yes, it was really them) voiced a Rice Krispies commercial.
For those new to this newsletter. This is the newsletter even Republicans have to read and the original home of the viral and beloved Top Ten Signs You're At a Republican Seder (yes, I wrote it). If someone forwarded this newsletter to you, why not subscribe and get it in your inbox every Sunday? Just click here--it's free.
I periodically update my posts on why Democrats are better than Republicans on Israel and antisemitism and on the IHRA definition of antisemitism. My definition of "pro-Israel" is here (it's a work in progress, as am I).
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