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Black Friday retail sales have evolved over the years, and 2025 is no exception. Going into the busiest season for retail were inflation numbers and consumer sentiment figures that gave retail businesses pause. The big splash of one day of shopping has stretched into several days. Early results point to a mixed bag, according to Retail Dive. They report that “AI traffic to U.S. retail websites grew 805% compared to 2024 on Black Friday, per Adobe’s data. AI tools were used the most for video games, appliances, electronics, toys, personal care, and baby product categories. Adobe also found that shoppers who landed on a U.S. retail site from an AI service were 38% more likely to convert to a sale than those coming from a non-AI traffic source.”
One negative appears to be online order volume. “Online order volume dropped 1% year over year on Black Friday, while average selling prices increased 7%, according to Salesforce data.”
Early data from RetailNext, which gathers information from tens of thousands of U.S. stores across hundreds of brands on its smart-store platform, shows that in-store traffic on Black Friday was down 3.6% compared to 2024. The real takeaway isn’t the dip itself; it’s what that decline signals: “The era of impulse holiday spree is ending. Consumers are in control, and they’re treating Black Friday as one data point in a much longer hunt for value.”
Another analytics firm saw a different picture emerge. “Data from AI retail insights company Passby found that the U.S. market saw a 1.7% year-over-year increase in store traffic based on 53 million analyzed visits. The technology group found that the health and beauty sector specifically saw a drop in visits, while department stores thrived.” Ultimately, the picture isn’t settled yet, but it’s clear that retailers will need to stay nimble as technology and consumer expectations continue to evolve.
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