|
To: Interested Parties
From: Drew Martin, RPA Executive Director
Re: TB&P/Hendrix Polling
Date: August 18, 2026
Following the release of the latest TB&P/Hendrix Arkansas poll, the Republican Party of Arkansas urges voters to use caution when reviewing the polling data – especially when Republican candidates have consistently overperformed in actual election results compared to the TB&P/Hendrix polls.
Since 2014, on average, the TB&P/Hendrix poll has underestimated the Republican candidate’s eventual share of the vote by 10%, and in some cases it has been by much more than 10%. Our analysis shows the TB&P/Hendrix poll has never overestimated the Republican candidate’s eventual share of the vote, but has done so 8 times for the Democrat candidate. And when their poll underestimates a Democrat’s share of the vote, it is almost always by a much less substantial margin than with a Republican. Their sample of voters, and their predicted turnout scenarios, have proven to be consistently wrong.
Below are a few examples – from 2020, 2022, and 2024 – of previous inaccurate polling compared to the actual election results.
2020 Polling
● Trump vs. Biden – TB&P/Hendrix Poll
○ Trump: 47%
○ Biden: 45%
● Trump vs. Biden – Election Results
○ Trump: 62%
○ Biden: 35%
● TB&P/Hendrix Poll Margin of Error: 25%
● Hill vs. Elliott – TB&P/Hendrix Poll
○ Hill: 46%
○ Elliott: 46%
● Hill vs. Elliott – Election Results
○ Hill: 55%
○ Elliott: 45%
● TB&P/Hendrix Poll Margin of Error: 10%
1
2022 Polling
● Sanders vs. Jones – TB&P/Hendrix Poll
○ Sanders: 51%
○ Jones: 40%
● Sanders vs. Jones – Election Results
○ Sanders: 63%
○ Jones: 35%
● TB&P/Hendrix Poll Margin of Error: 17%
● Boozman vs. James – TB&P/Hendrix Poll
○ Boozman: 44%
○ James: 31%
● Boozman vs. James – Election Results
○ Boozman: 66%
○ James: 31%
● TB&P/Hendrix Poll Margin of Error: 22%
2024 Polling
● Trump vs. Harris – TB&P/Hendrix Poll
○ Trump: 55%
○ Harris: 40%
● Trump vs. Harris – Election Results
○ Trump: 64%
○ Harris: 34%
● TB&P/Hendrix Poll Margin of Error: 15%
| 
