Significant flooding likely this weekend

Good evening, folks! We have a lot to discuss, from flooding potential this weekend to Arctic air moving into the area next week. Let's dive in.

It's been exceptionally wet in the Bluegrass State recently. January precipitation was around normal, but since February 1st, data from the Ag Weather Center shows that the state has averaged 4.46 inches. To put this in perspective, Kentucky typically averages 3.86 inches for the ENTIRE month of February, and we're only halfway through.

Below is a look at observed and departure-from-normal precipitation since the start of 2025. Most of the state has already seen 6 to 8+ inches of precipitation (liquid equivalent). Some areas are 3+ inches above normal over that timeframe. Bottom line, the ground is pretty well saturated and can't hold much more water.

This leads us to the forecast: 2-5+ inches of rain is expected this weekend (see map below, courtesy of NWS Louisville). Localized areas could even see 6 inches or more. Combined with the saturated ground mentioned earlier, significant flooding is likely, which has prompted Governor Beshear to declare a State of Emergency.

The axis of heavy rain continues to deviate a little, shifting northwest in today's model runs. Locations from Western Kentucky to the Bluegrass Region are currently forecasted to see the highest totals of 4+ inches. However, slight track changes are still possible, which could alter the axis of highest rainfall totals. Bottom line: DO NOT let your guard down. The forecast is still evolving, and everyone across Kentucky is under a Flash Flood Watch. In fact, the Watch across Western Kentucky is being deemed a Particularly Dangerous Situation, emphasizing the threat of an unusually dangerous and impactful flood event.

Rain is expected to start late tonight across Western Kentucky and spread eastward through the morning hours. This activity will persist throughout the day, clearing out late Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Remember, this is a short period for such an extreme amount of rainfall, so be prepared for the flooding aspect!

Looking closer at the flooding situation, both river flooding and localized flash flooding are possible. Most stream flows are currently running above or much above normal levels. Many locations will likely see river rise into minor to moderate flood stages. I've included a clickable map below that will take you to the National Water Prediction Service. You can select any of those boxes to get the observed and forecasted river levels for specific locations. As an example (image below), Ravenna is currently forecast to hit major flood stage late Sunday. In some good news, the peak forecast of 32.80 feet is down about 5 feet from yesterday. Nonetheless, this area WILL still see impacts.

If you live near any streams or rivers, please plan accordingly. I've heard from a couple folks today who are already calving. Take extra precautions and ensure any animals are moved out of low-lying areas. By Saturday night, localized flash flooding will also be a concern with more intense rainfall rates. If you live in a flood-prone area, make plans now and be prepared to take action!

Please ensure you have multiple ways of receiving life- and property-saving warnings from the National Weather Service. This can include smartphone apps, a NOAA Weather Radio, or even alerts from your favorite TV meteorologist.

To help you stay up-to-date, I highly recommend the "Weather Alert" app from the Ag Weather Center. This ad-free app provides daily and hourly forecasts, high-resolution radar, National Weather Service alerts sent directly to your phone, and a link to this update. It's a fantastic tool to keep you informed and safe—without the distractions of annoying ads! I’ve included some screenshots from my phone below to showcase its features. Be sure to check it out by clicking the QR codes below to download.

In addition, below are links to the briefings from every National Weather Service office across the state for more information. These briefings contain not only important forecast details, but also crucial safety material. One safety message I want to emphasize is to never drive across a flooded roadway. Just 1 to 2 feet of moving water can sweep most vehicles off the road! Be sure to refer back to these slides periodically for forecast updates.

Central KY - NWS Louisville

Western KY - NWS Paducah



Eastern KY - NWS Jackson

I was reviewing the February precipitation rankings, and with an average of 3 inches from this event, this February would rank among the top 10 wettest on record—and we still have another 2 weeks to go! We definitely need a break from the rain, and it seems we'll get it, but it comes with a return of winter cold and potentially some more snow. Highs will struggle in the 20s and 30s over the first half of next workweek, and the outlooks below suggest that trend will continue through that weekend. In fact, I'd say we'll see lows drop back into the single digits at some point. Winter isn't over, yet!

There are some model hints that the cooler air could be accompanied by more snow midweek, but it's simply too early to get into specifics. Let's focus on getting through this flooding situation first! Outside of that potential winter storm, the outlooks lean toward drier-than-normal conditions over the second half of February—a welcome change! However, for all the livestock folks, the mud is unfortunately here to stay for a while.

With that, stay safe this weekend!