Silver Prices and the Summation Index
Breaking News: Paper silver prices rebounded since early June, but fell back on Friday, July 5, to $15.00.
Read:
These articles describe empirical valuation models for silver and gold prices based on three macroeconomic variables.
They conclude that silver prices are substantially undervalued (almost 40%), and gold prices are somewhat undervalued as of July 5, 2019.
But valuation models are not timing models.
They show when macroeconomic fundamentals suggest that metals prices are too low or too high in the “big picture.” However, metal prices can remain under or overvalued for years. Long-term investors buy silver and gold when they want insurance against loss of purchasing power, central bank predations, governmental intervention in markets and economic crashes.
A Timing Indicator.
If you day-trade, you compete with non-human algos that act in microseconds on information unavailable to most people.
This trading is dangerous for most individuals.
If you occasionally trade a portion of your silver stack, many timing tools are available that help buying low and selling high.
One is the “Summation Indicator” as described below. You buy and sell silver when the indicator reaches extreme readings.
The Summation Indicator is a weighted average of the silver to gold ratio, the RSI (14-week
relative strength
) of the silver to gold ratio, and the RSI of the silver price.
Rules:
1.
Like all markets, the silver market is “managed” by large commercial interests, JPMorgan, governments and central banks. Beware of their influence.
2.
The Summation Indicator is one of many timing tools. No tool is always accurate.
3.
Hold a stack of silver knowing that currency devaluations are inevitable, and they will revalue silver prices much higher. Buy or sell a portion of your remaining stack when the indicator reaches extremes.
4.
When the indicator exceeds 70, sell some of your stack.
5.
When the indicator falls below 30, purchase more silver. In bull markets, buy when the indicator hits a multi-month low and reverses higher, even if it doesn’t reach 30.
6.
False signals will happen.
Use other indicators to confirm buy and sell timing signals.
Examine the graphs of silver prices and the “Summation Indicator” from 2002 to 2019. The indicator shows buys (green ovals) and sells (red ovals).
