What’s Next for Long Island Democrats?
By Wendy Diller
We reached out to the speakers from the April 13 club meeting on Long Island Democratic politics following the May finalization of the controversial new electoral maps for the NY House of Representatives and NYS Senate seats. The aim of the discussion is to help Three Parks members evaluate the best opportunities for the club to make an impact on upcoming November Congressional races.
Perry Gershon, a former Democratic candidate for CD-1 on the East End of Long Island and one of the keynote speakers on April 13 provided his updated thoughts (Lawrence Levy and Anna Kaplan, the other keynotes, could not be reached in time for this article’s deadline.).
All three House Congressional seats on Long Island could become Republican, given the current political climate and ongoing concerns on Long Island about bail reform and the economy/ inflation (gasoline price hikes are particularly painful for Long Islanders, given their dependent on cars absent mass transit options), Gershon believes. The new maps only reinforce this danger.
The new maps reduce chances of victories for Democratic candidates in CD-1, retain CD-2 as Republican territory, and leave CD-3 as tougher for Democrats but still the most winnable Long Island CD, according to Gershon.
For now, he suggests that Three Parks, if it decides to devote resources to Long Island races, focus on CD-3 once a winner is declared in the primary. The CD-3 House seat is open, as incumbent Tom Suozzi is now a candidate for NYS Governor. As of the June 10 filing deadline, six candidates are vying for victory in the Democratic primary. Four of the six are considered to be “serious: i.e., viable candidates –Joshua Lafazan, Jon Kaiman, Robert Zimmerman, and Melanie D’Arrigo (They represent the following wings of the Democratic Party, L to R: right, center, left/center, and left.)
Gershon believes two of these are favored. If he wins, Zimmerman will be the first gay Democrat in Congress from Long Island. He has worked in Congress and previously ran a communications firm on Long Island. He is well-connected and a prolific fund-raiser but has never run for office before.
Kaiman has the best chance of winning a general election, however, Gershon believes. Kaiman, of Great Neck, has been the deputy county executive for Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone since 2017. He is the former town supervisor of North Hempstead and is well known, with excellent connections on Long Island, he says. If he runs as a moderate, he likely could capture independent votes in the general election. Zimmerman, on the other hand, is going to struggle more to motivate independent voters in the general election. Gershon also states that a progressive-left winner of the primary, such as D’Arrigo, which is a remote possibility if votes are split, would be a disaster in the general election, assuring Republican victory.
Democratic chances in CD-1 will become clearer towards late summer as the Republican candidate roster unfolds, Gershon says. According to Ballotopedia, the sole Republican candidate, George Devolder-Santos, is an openly gay Trump supporter, who works in finance, and has not previously held office. Devolder-Santos ran for the CD-3 seat in 2020 but lost to Tom Suozzi.
CD-1 and CD-2 Candidates
In CD -1, following finalization of the Special Master’s maps, Dems have a very slight, marginal advantage, based on the Biden vote. Bridget Fleming, an attorney and Suffolk County Legislator, who ran unsuccessfully in the 2020 primary for the seat, is all but assured of being the nominee; three other candidates on the ballot are running weak campaigns at best.
This should be a “hot” race in the general election, attracting a lot of outside money, but a victory will be very difficult, especially in this off-year election, Gershon says. He doesn’t have clarity on the strength of Republican opposition; seven contenders are vying for the Republican nomination, but Gershon says it is too early to say how strong the competition ultimately will be in the general election.
In CD-2, which is also in Suffolk County, Jackie Gordon is the front-runner for the Democratic primary. Gordon, who switched from running in the CD-1 race after the maps changed, is now in her home territory, but Gershon believes she still stands almost no chance of winning in the general election as she faces similar obstacles to the CD-1 Democrats. She likely will face a popular moderate Republican incumbent, Andrew Garbarino, who voted to confirm Biden as president.
What Will Drive L.I. Dems to the Polls?
While bail reform is not a Congressional issue, on Long Island, it is likely to motivate people to vote. Inflation, especially tied to gasoline prices, is also likely to stimulate Long Islanders to go to the polls. Democrats who can address these issues in ways that resonate with Long Islanders could benefit in a general election, but those people may not make it through the primaries, which tend to bring out more progressive voters.
Another key factor on Long Island is the large number of independent voters, who tend to lean Republican in general elections, Gershon points out. Getting Democrats to vote in the primaries and general election therefore is crucial – and problematic because, while they tend to turn out in big numbers in presidential elections, L.I. Democrats’ participation in off-year elections is poor. The scars from poor Democratic participation in the 2021 local elections remain on people’s minds.